- Data usage is jumping high double digits...
- If Kenya can attract serious BPO then we the undersea cables will make sense... Expect 100%+ usage growth
- EA Cables is not a telcom stock as much as 'building' stock... Copper + Aluminum is larger than fibre-optics for them... at this point...

WiMax provides 'last-mile' but the signal is carried to that last mile by fibre-optics... That said... sharing is the way to go!

@Djinn, I doubt we are going to see a bubble here.
The demand for internet is growing bigger by the day,its even there.The only problem is that suppliers are not willing to offer at an agreeable price.

I once read somewhere that we consume 4% of the cables capacity in Kenya.Now introduce BPO,Cable TV etc at affordable prices and the consumption will jump.I think its just a matter of time.....or some regulation to ensure internet is offered at a good price.

the bubble has already popped...you will see it clearly in 2011-2012

@bird_man - yes I agree demand is growing and ESPECIALLY that the providers are rather sluggish in reducing prices drastically in such a fashion that drastic reduction will CREATE demand. We must understand, at least in terms in international bandwidth, thet SCOM, AK, Zain, TKL etc have taken 5, 10 15 or 20 year IRUs with the cable operators - its like paying your house rent for 20 years....they need to recoup this money sooner rather than later...especially those that took loans to finance their operations - the longer the debt stays in the book....well, interests rates etc etc....

And I dare say I think this is where the crux of the problem might be (from SEACOM/Eassy all the way down to the telco) - they have borrowed at some point to finance the building of the cable or investment in the cable - there has been WAY too much hype about a market that will snap up the bandwidth...so they borrowed to buy in...


Now, on the other side of the market, there might, just might be demand - se my other comment - my usage since last year has not increased - its same old same old for me (same FB on mobile or PC, same gmail, same wazua/SK) - nothign much has changed in terms of content - hell, no one is even creative enough start a Kenyan porn site

@Bird-man - you allude to cable TV - hmmm....we have had that for eons - we do not really need internattional cables that cost billions of shillings to roll out cable tv locally - UNLESS the content is coming from other shores (in which case, whats the diff with DsTv?). KDN/Zuku are the only players thinking about content in this way (quad play - voice, data, multimedia, etc\) and want to do this on a regional level - if they can get just 500,000 homes in Kenya connected to a new service that brings 100 channels, 512kbps internet link, 100 minutes of voice on that same link - All for say Kshs 3000 - ONLY then can we see that capacity being used and only then can we avoid this bubble.

We have said data usage is growing - yes, maybe for you me, and VVS who have EDGE/GPRS/3G handsets - we make up less than 2% of all subscribers - Wanjiku out there has a "Nokia Torch" while her sister has a Nokia with Radio - they either send the same number of SMSs as before in terms of cost or send 100 times as many for the same cost (thanks to the insanity prevailing in the market among harti and Telkom - WTF needs 100 SMS per day?)

@Djinn, I now see your point and agree.For that cable to make sense perhaps 3 things need to start happening:
(1)Such a drastic cut in prices.The kind that can spur a crazy patronage by everyday consumers.In addition, new services through fibre.Hopefully this will increase demand and usage of the extra bandwidth.
(2)"Export" the cable to landlocked countries like Rwanda,UG etc and hope that they snap up the bandwidth.
(3)Concerted effort especially through the Govt to spur the BPO sector.Perhaps even a special BPO Board to drive the initiative?

The 3 need to happen almost in tandem....and for some reason I don't think such things happen easily around here.

Absolutely true abt the 3 bob calls - and its sad that Uganda are dragging their feet (rather mired in some scandal relating to their terrestrial fibre - KDN has gone up to tororo and Telkom up to Malaba - but no corresponding pipe to connect to on the other side - so when you call Kampala your call goes through satellite (or microwave) - thus it costs more.


Lets look at this another way...if Safaricom were to post the same VOICE revenues in 2011...given the prices are now HALVED - they would have to double their subscriber base from abt 14m to 28m....with Zain, Yu and Orange focusing on rural areas...its very unlikely that SCOM can see 100% growth in subscribers in one year. Voice still accounts for abt 75-80% of revenues (I guess). So the next cash cow (rather calf) is data - this is a meal no one really knows how to serve but imagines everyone would like to eat.

Continued growth of mobile money may help mitigate losses to voice but there is only so far we can go with that. Only so far.

BTW has anyone used m-kesho yet?