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KCB Q3 results out!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 3:07:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
KCB have just released their Q3 results.
PBT up 23.46% from 5.275 to 6.512B
Currently suspended till tomorrow.
how will this affect its price going forward!
@SufficientlyP
mkonomtupu
#2 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 3:35:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
statutory ratios with core capital to total deposits at 18.6% (CBK minimum – 8.0%),
core capital to total risk weighted assets at 20.9% (CBK minimum – 8.0%),
total capital to total risk weighted assets at 21.0% (CBK minimum – 12.0%) and
liquidity at 38.7% (CBK minimum – 20.0%).

9 months’ profits this year are above full year profits for 2009. IMO this should sustain a price of 23-25 going forward. There is a lot of room for growth going by the ratios.

It remains undervalued because with a Kshs 244 billion balance you would expect more. Dr. MOO that a B+ from an otherwise A student.
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 3:50:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Given the way this monster of a bank moves, a 28% increase in PAT is damn good. PE Ratio for the projected EPS for the full year remains below 10. I would actually say the results are commendable.

As to share price hmmmn lets see..., but I would be a buyer at current levels. There's still room for some upside, at least upto 25 in the near short term.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:58:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@mkonomtupu, true, their B/sheet at 244B is really roaring and the statutory ratios are within acceptable levels.Their TA over TL has improved from 1.14 to 1.18, which could mean their loan book is doing well. Gearing ratio(D/E) has also come down from 87.98 to 84.9.
@Mwanahisa i think their forward P/E is way above 10. If you project the 9months profits, assuming that the last quarter will take the trend of the last 9 months PATwise, you are lookin at an EPS of 2.027 (current EPS for 9 months being 1.52 i.e 4.495B/2.95B shares.
Now at the Forward EPs of 2.027 at the current price of 22.75, you are lookin at a P/E of 11.22.
But i agree with you that it's still a buy at the current levels.
If you give it the current sector PE of 17.23, you are looking at a price of 34.92, by the time they release their full year Accounts in March.
Now, that's a cool 53.5% in 5 months!!!!!
@SufficientlyP
Gordon Gekko
#5 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 1:33:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Will an accountant please help me? The basic eps for KCB Q3 is 2.03 while the diluted eps is 2.52. I have always known diluted eps to be worse than basic eps, as the ordinary shareholder position is made worse by potential ordinary shares expected to come on board. A rights issue in my opinion is dilutive, hence the diluted figure should be lower (worse) than the basic eps.
Another point is that a dilution anticipates more ordinary shares being issued in the future, hence the dilution in eps. What more shares do KCB anticipate to issue in the future and why are they not shown in shareholders equity as (convertible stock etc?)
mwanahisa
#6 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 2:00:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Will an accountant please help me? The basic eps for KCB Q3 is 2.03 while the diluted eps is 2.52. I have always known diluted eps to be worse than basic eps, as the ordinary shareholder position is made worse by potential ordinary shares expected to come on board. A rights issue in my opinion is dilutive, hence the diluted figure should be lower (worse) than the basic eps.
Another point is that a dilution anticipates more ordinary shares being issued in the future, hence the dilution in eps. What more shares do KCB anticipate to issue in the future and why are they not shown in shareholders equity as (convertible stock etc?)


To answer your first question, I can only submit that the KCB Finance guys made an error. I indicated as much on another thread. The correct fully diluted EPS should be 1.52. Just divide the PAT attributable to ordinary shareholders by the number of ordinary shares (including those from the rights issue).

On the other hand, the EPS figure of 2.03 is based on the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the reporting period. I am fully in agreement with you that Diluted EPS should be lower than the Basic EPS.

As to your second point, I honestly do not understand the question. I am not aware of any intention to issue new ordinary shares.
mapengo
#7 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 2:17:46 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/20/2010
Posts: 27
Location: kenya
i personally think that KCB still has along way to go. such profits are a disgust and an insult to the shareholders. with total assets totaling to 244B and the guys making 6.5B... there are still sooooo many inefficiencies in that place bwana Odour it time to start consolidating or retrenching so that u can start reaping maximum benefits from your total investments. seems that there are many white elephants at kencom which are not in anyway generating income. KCB should be talking of making 15B by end of 3rd quarter
mjuaji wa stocks
#8 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 2:22:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/16/2010
Posts: 672
Location: nairobi
Waiting for EB results!

When are they due?

It is the mother of all banks.
God gave me the power to make wealth ... Blessed the work of my hands & enabled be A SELF MADE BILLIONAIRE ...... TO GOD THE FATHER OF MY LORD JESUS CHRIST; BE THE GLORY NOW & FOREVER MORE!

mwanahisa
#9 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 2:25:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
[quote=Sufficiently Philanga....thropic@Mwanahisa i think their forward P/E is way above 10. If you project the 9months profits, assuming that the last quarter will take the trend of the last 9 months PATwise, you are lookin at an EPS of 2.027 (current EPS for 9 months being 1.52 i.e 4.495B/2.95B shares.
Now at the Forward EPs of 2.027 at the current price of 22.75, you are lookin at a P/E of 11.22.
[/quote]

@SP, The Basic EPS based on the issued Weighted Average Number of Shares during the reporting period is given as 2.03. I have tried reworking it and am afraid that I have got a different figure of Kshs 1.93. I can't tell how they got their figure.

Disregarding that, If KCB can manage to make a further 1.5 billion PAT in Q4(average for the 1st 3 Qtrs), that will be an additional EPS of 0.51. In total that would bring EPS for the year to Kshs 2.54, or using my figure to Kshs 2.44.

In that case forward PE ratio for KCB remains below 10. That leaves enough head room for share price growth.
sparkly
#10 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 6:49:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Kcb return on assets is pathetic
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#11 Posted : Saturday, October 23, 2010 5:08:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Kcb return on assets is pathetic


there will always be HATERS!!!!

@sparkly doesn't this provide HUMONGOUS room for growth???

M.O.O has made a number of promises to shareholders, directors and the public all to be fulfilled by 2013...

some of these include

1. greatly improved R.O.A
2 Reduction of cost to income ratio to about 50%
3. Doubling of the company's assets
4. PBT of 9billion by end of 2010
5. Greatly improving inefficiencies

To me KCB is already well on its way to achieve all of these

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 12:51:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,212
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Kcb return on assets is pathetic


there will always be HATERS!!!!

@sparkly doesn't this provide HUMONGOUS room for growth???

M.O.O has made a number of promises to shareholders, directors and the public all to be fulfilled by 2013...

some of these include

1. greatly improved R.O.A
2 Reduction of cost to income ratio to about 50%
3. Doubling of the company's assets
4. PBT of 9billion by end of 2010
5. Greatly improving inefficiencies

To me KCB is already well on its way to achieve all of these


Sounds like the same stuff he told us last time... [The Rights Issue at 25/-]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
qw25041985
#13 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 2:15:41 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@sparkly , vvs and all the haters . meza wembe.na kama inakuwasha nunua vix kingo !!!!! kCB is on a roll and i am expecting not less than a 40% increase in my stock when full year results are due.Those numbers are impressive and there's potential here.
They have a healthy loans book thats GROWING.so keep on investing in your hate whilst in invest in a sound co. thats KCB .
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
sparkly
#14 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 8:06:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@qw i have a chunk of the mammoth btwn 17.75 and 19 ... I bought, not coz its a star performer but coz it was undervalued. Nic and dtb are able to achieve over 1B profits with a fraction of kcb's assets. These guys owe the shareholder a better performance. Haki yetu haki yetu.
Life is short. Live passionately.
nahdy
#15 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 8:54:03 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/29/2006
Posts: 184
@qw... U jst forgot to mention wat the charts are saying or u no longer do ta!!!
the deal
#16 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 9:51:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
nahdy wrote:
@qw... U jst forgot to mention wat the charts are saying or u no longer do ta!!!

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Eveready never seem to follow the charts...
Gordon Gekko
#17 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 5:44:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
the deal wrote:
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Eveready never seem to follow the charts...


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly BTW, dumped my 200 paka shares 2 weeks back. Did wonders to my average portfolio purchase price!!!!
PKoli
#18 Posted : Sunday, October 24, 2010 10:09:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Kcb return on assets is pathetic


there will always be HATERS!!!!

@sparkly doesn't this provide HUMONGOUS room for growth???

M.O.O has made a number of promises to shareholders, directors and the public all to be fulfilled by 2013...

some of these include

1. greatly improved R.O.A
2 Reduction of cost to income ratio to about 50%
3. Doubling of the company's assets
4. PBT of 9billion by end of 2010
5. Greatly improving inefficiencies

To me KCB is already well on its way to achieve all of these


Sounds like the same stuff he told us last time... [The Rights Issue at 25/-]



I think they have performed reasonably well. All that is required of them is to work on their return on assests. From the Q1 results they have been consistent in subsequent quarters. I expect over 30% growth FY results. The last quarter we will use more utililization of the rights money. Improved performance from branches in Sudan, Ug, Tz and Rwanda should boost the Groups full year performance. I feel KCB should be trading at 26 now and about 30 at the time of FY announcement. at 23 it is a strng buy.
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