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Dissapointing results from Industrials!!!
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Most industrials have been reporting full year results ended june 2010 and i must say they're not that impressive MSC: PAT down 3% Unga: PAT up 40% (market was expecting 100%+) Kengen: PAT down 5% KPLC: Restructuring not as good as expected. With this in light I hope financials can reverse the trend with their Q3 results so i can make serious cheese!!! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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The banking sector won't let us down. I hope. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Financials wouldn't disappoint. I see my quiet favourite NIC gaining slowly and steadily (49 today). Of course Jubilee will be jackpot and KCB will be decent even without spectacular results. SCB, what can I say? Dumped all my shareholding there at sh 300 except a minimal 200 which I used for the extra rights request. Even if I don't get the extra rights asked for, I can still get back in at 250....I love this game.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Yeah financials all the way. Still have mumias scars. Its really financials right now, but so damn hard to get a sweet entry. Nic, dtk. Cant get in, getting frustrated. To me entry point is so important, Ive been burned before, tis why. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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In case i miss these two buses, whats the buzz with jubilee? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:In case i miss these two buses, whats the buzz with jubilee? Jubilee will not disappoint in its financials but it might not be an income stock because of its low dividends... With good dividends this stock would be 400bob... but in its current state i'd say its worth about 250 which is a 30% return from where it currently is Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,047 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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For long term investors, however attractive financials are, balance it up with industrial and or other sectors. Financials should not be more than 50% for an ideal portfolio, from long term perspective. NSE just like other African markets are cyclical. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:In case i miss these two buses, whats the buzz with jubilee? Jubilee will not disappoint in its financials but it might not be an income stock because of its low dividends... With good dividends this stock would be 400bob... but in its current state i'd say its worth about 250 which is a 30% return from where it currently is when stocks are going up no one thinks they will come done.@guru then you will say its worth 500, 600 etc Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:In case i miss these two buses, whats the buzz with jubilee? Jubilee will not disappoint in its financials but it might not be an income stock because of its low dividends... With good dividends this stock would be 400bob... but in its current state i'd say its worth about 250 which is a 30% return from where it currently is when stocks are going up no one thinks they will come done.@guru then you will say its worth 500, 600 etc @sparkly JHL posted 69% increase in H1 profits most of it realised from the NSE.. and the way things are going for the NSE towards year end i wonder what they'll announce for FY2010... Even a 50% increase will drive EPS to 24 and with its normal P/E at 10.5 the stock will trade at 250... a good dividend and we're at 400 Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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young wrote: For long term investors, however attractive financials are, balance it up with industrial and or other sectors. Financials should not be more than 50% for an ideal portfolio, from long term perspective. NSE just like other African markets are cyclical.
Mzee Young, Thanks for your point well put. I sometimes forget and find myself in financials. I have a feeling than when the NSE has to go down it behaves like 'mtego wa panya - hubeba wa waliyomo na wasiyokuwemo' ( 'a trap for the rats - will also attract others'). So when it goes down, it will pull industrials - only ARM is resillient)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,047 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@Pkoli, Anyone whose portfolio comprises mainly financial stocks is an indication of inexperience. Worldwide it is an established fact that the financial sector is a fragile sector. Accumulated and undeclared non performing loans, govt policy can make financial stocks to crash as a pack of cards. We have seen it in USA/Europe, in Nigeria and Egypt. The most fraudulent and sharp practices and cover ups of financial statements without being detected by external auditors are more easily perfected in banks and financial institutions. What affect one bank affects the other because of inter bank transactions. It also affects insurance companies. But take a look at other sectors(except of course weather dependent agric sector) , they are on their own. What affect a telecom company may night affect a paint company neither a brewery nor a power generation company. Ditto for newspaper company, or cement manufacturer. So your investment in other sectors are less risky and less dependent on unknown factors. . Quick returns thrills but most often is not sustainable Not all that glitters is gold. Gradual consistently consistent growth is the best on this game, unless you just want to speculate and quit after making a kill. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@young. What percentage of your portfolio is financials and what is industrial? Which industrials in the nse right now, do you see giving good capital returns in the next six months? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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@Pkoli,I dont think ARM is that resilient...together with Scan and NIC I watched them defy the bear briefly but when the panic began they broke badly,I remember trying to nab ARM @55. The industrials rallied strongly way before the banks did and now the banks have caught up...I guess banking is where the action will be for the next year then industrials start to rally at the latter part of the year. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@Young. I agree on your point about the stock market being cyclical. Right now Financials are in a bull cycle. They benefit the most from an upturn in the economy. The trick will of course be when and how to exit when the trend tapers off.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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@wahe guru, you forgot the worst culprit of all. East African Portland Cement which slam dunked with a loss.
At the Half Year level, BOC, Bamburi and East African Cables are all set to disspoint.
KK and Total at least bucked the trend and EABL and BAT seem not to have been too bad.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,047 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@Aguytrying 30% of my investment in NSE is allocated to the financials. Specifically KCB, and a equity. I have a very large chunk in KCB. My plans is to sell a portion of KCB when it appreciates close to 30 bob (as per our experts prediction) and use the proceeds to buy BBK, JUB AND STANCHART. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Did anybody see Jubilee look at 200 this morning?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,047 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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EABL seem to be the most consistent over the years. Good dividend history (twice a year), consistent bonus (average of once every 4 years for the 12 years). Permit me to say it is one of foreigners most prefered counter in industrial sector. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,047 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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EABL seem to be the most consistent over the years. Good dividend history (twice a year), consistent bonus (average of once every 4 years for the past 12 years). Permit me to say it is one of foreigners most prefered counter in industrial sector. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Young. At the current PE of 20+ I find it a bit too rich for me. Growth in EABL's Net Profit (attributable to shareholders) has been 13.04% in 2006 ,13.74% in 2007, 23.15% in 2008, -8.86% in 2009 and 4.29% in 2010. For me that kind of growth is just not sufficient to attract me to it.
On the other hand if you are looking for stability, liquidity and good dividend yield, then that's your counter. No wonder foreigners (especially institutions) love it.
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Dissapointing results from Industrials!!!
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