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Safaricom's HY results...
mlennyma
#1 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:06:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
The first 6months are over,and as we eagerly wait,this is my estimate...mpesa and data revenue was untouched and experienced growth for the last six months am giving this space like 4.8b,on the other hand revenue from voice was affected for the last one month so just give it 6b...is my estimate of 10.8b half year a dream?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:10:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
The first 6months are over,and as we eagerly wait,this is my estimate...mpesa and data revenue was untouched and experienced growth for the last six months am giving this space like 4.8b,on the other hand revenue from voice was affected for the last one month so just give it 6b...is my estimate of 10.8b half year a dream?

Before i Zains price wars i predicted a 12billion PBT....

So i agree with your new prediction
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
2012
#3 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:53:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
10b PBT would be FANTASTIC! But I think it's a bit optimistic. I would put it at about 6.8b but I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

BBI will solve it
:)
Sober
#4 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:54:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Did u say affected for th last one month, then why is it that it becomes so important.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
guru267
#5 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:17:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
10b PBT would be FANTASTIC! But I think it's a bit optimistic. I would put it at about 6.8b but I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

@2012 i think you're abit to pessimistic... Price wars have been going on for only a month and last year they announced 9.8billion PBT...

I was expecting 12 but i'm sure we'll get 10.8billion....

Though the second half is what we should be most worried about...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
muganda
#6 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:43:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Oh Ye of little faith!
hisah
#7 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:56:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I expect 10B for 1H, but the haircut will be in 2H results. I've been wondering since safcom extended the offer till Nov, what if the bluff that they expect on Zain's price war comes to pass. That should see some serious buy volumes. I know it sounds like a dream, but who doesn't have one.

Full year maybe 12B. Anything more will be very positive.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mlennyma
#8 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:44:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Good brains here! and i hear the gvt pockets are growing thinner so a meeting to reverse the rough play could be in the offing.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
sheep
#9 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:54:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
ill buy whenever there will be a panic...2h most likely.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 2:34:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
I now have major doubts about how much Zain (and others) are going to eat into Safaricom's market share. Yes, Safaricom's profit may plummet, but market share will remain constant, or even edge up. Have you seen their new strategy? Its called COPYCAT. Safcom just waits for other market players to come up with new products and they just follow suit. Don't get me wrong, it's pretty darn effective. They just sit by the radio and wait for a rival's announcement, then just mirror it a week later. What did they do when Zain reduced call rates? Or for international call rates? And I bet if Zain launched 3G with dirt cheap data rates, Safcom will do the same. Effect? No gain for any of Safaricom's competitors. I think it is a brilliant strategy. Zain, yu and Orange are bound to get frustrated by any avenue they try. How long can these games go on? Forever, I hope. Cause this wars have been smashing for the consumer.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mlennyma
#11 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 11:27:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
I agree given the muscle and customer loyalty,safcom will frustrate the three.zap and other money transfer systems are non-starters,..for how long can you run a loss making business?next... rene mezza will be sacked for spending and not delivering.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
guru267
#12 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 12:15:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I tend to disagree with those who think zain wont dent safcoms market share!!

Zain plans to roll out 20,000 zap outlets by the end of next year which is more than safcoms 17,500.. Now with zap being cheaper MPESA will surely be hit...

Zain plans to roll out 3G by the end of this year which will increase competition in this space and limit safcoms ability to increase market share

Bob colymore said he will not sustain the calling and texting price wars to maintain shareholder value... So the moment all these promotions end safcom will begin to lose even more market share....

Lets not assume zain is the only player here... I've been observing Essar's YU and they are also hell bent on increasing market share...


In a near saturated market I have no idea where safcom will increase there market share unless they expand outside kenya or turn into an IT company or bank
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mlennyma
#13 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 12:33:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Intending to do and doing are two different things...dont dwell on dreams.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
guru267
#14 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 12:45:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Intending to do and doing are two different things...dont dwell on dreams.


Oh so you call these dreams??? I wish you were there when safcom intended to steal kencells market share by introducing prepaid calls...

I hope you dont think Renee Meza doesnt value his job enough for him to start blowing hot air....

Anyways we'll talk again in 5 years Laughing out loudly
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#15 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 3:27:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, Safaricom's market will be affected, but not significantly. The doomsday scenario we had forseen shall not come to pass. As for the share, that's a totally different matter
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
sky5
#16 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 5:20:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/7/2010
Posts: 282
Location: Nairobi
@guru, though Zain (Bharti Airtel) plan to spend billions, am afraid they may not deliver. Safcom may post good 1H results , but full year results may be affected. However, their market share may not reduce significantly.

While Bharti Airtel (in India) uses its high subscriber numbers to stay on top at low call rates, the same shall also apply to Safcom here at home. At the end of the low call season, only Safom may be smiling all the way to the bank. By the time the dust settles, as the PS warned, some operators may close or be sold or resold to other parties. IMHO.
mlennyma
#17 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 8:11:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Ni kesho ama?..any changes?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
ProverB
#18 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 8:23:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mlennyma wrote:
Ni kesho ama?..any changes?


bado ni Kesho.. unless Mr Bob Call-him-more decided otherwise..
Time to restore "Niko na suffering-com" back to original factory settings. smile smile ..new advert is a nice touch.. wonder how much scangroup made from it.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
ProverB
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 8:58:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
ANd the safaricom face-thumbing continues.

http://www.businessdaily...52/-/6hpjy2/-/index.html
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Sober
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 9:00:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
ProverB wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Ni kesho ama?..any changes?


bado ni Kesho.. unless Mr Bob Call-him-more decided otherwise..
Time to restore "Niko na suffering-com" back to original factory settings. smile smile ..new advert is a nice touch.. wonder how much scangroup made from it.



year, it's tommorow.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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