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Fundamental investor - TPS EA
robertyawe
#1 Posted : Monday, September 06, 2010 11:39:00 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/20/2010
Posts: 37
Location: Nairobi
TPS is a service based company which would suggest that its business is very cyclic and over dependent on external factors.

Trying to extract fundamentals from the annual report is difficult as the core strength is based on goodwill of tour operators. The benefit is the fact that the Ismaili community of which the Aga Khan is the spiritual leader have a very strong presence around the world and thus can mitigate any adverse issues that could be caused by any adverse statements.

The rebound of the share back after the bonus issue is a reflection of the confidence that the market has in the business. In addition the management where very clear on what they intend to do with the additional capitalisation. It is also a clear confirmation that the share is actually undervalued at the current price.

The rights issue will most likely lower the price sufficiently to allow more individual investors to buy into the counter. With less than 8,500 individual local investors TPS has been beyond the reach of many.

To many of us when we see TPS all we think about is the Serena in Nairobi, which our political elite seem to have a soft spot maybe due to its proximity to Uhuru Park. This preference is clearly seen in the increased revenue for Nairobi Serena over the past 2 years (Kofi Annan).

Many of the units in the group are Lodges which are very resilient when it comes to adverse security alerts for 2 main reasons

1. There being away from the City clients can come and go with little disruption from railway line uprooting.

2. The lodges foreign clientèle book months or even years in advance, unlike we locals who plan our travel on the morning before.

This means that TPS's profitability is stable and sustainable as opposed to those hotels that mainly rely on business travellers and are situated within cities and towns.

TPS has a large capital investment in its property and plant. This is fine in that there are reduced rental charges but also means higher tax liability.

The group is diversifying towards provision of management services without taking on full ownership of the physical facilities. By taking on a minority stage in ownership as a means to secure the management contracts.

This will allow TPS to increase revenue without incurring large capital outlays allowing it to concentrate on its core business of hospitality.

Like with many of the other listed companies the public holding is under 35%, 21.79% (13% are local individual investors) control will remain in the Aga Khan's clutches for a long time to come.

With local individuals holding less than 15% of the shares gives a dismal picture of our appreciation of equity investing maybe too many of us are in the subsistence stage in so far as investment goes.

This low participation in listed companies by indigenous Kenyans leaves a lot to be desired an indication that most forums are talk shops wher no action actually gets taken.
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Monday, September 06, 2010 11:45:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@Yawe - All said and done... Is it a good investment at this price?

I like Aga Khan (as opposed to merali) firms... I have never lost money buying an IPO or Rights...

TPSEA has risen multiple-fold since it's IPO as TPS...
Diamond Trust is at a premium vs its last Rights Issue price of 70/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Monday, September 06, 2010 12:15:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
TPS is a good well run company, but I have always considered it a tad too expensive. I prefer to hold Aga Khan related companies through Jubilee which owns quite a bit of the others and has continued to have increased revenues and profits through the years.
sparkly
#4 Posted : Monday, September 06, 2010 12:41:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@ryawe good analysis. With the opening of the east african borders, the region is about to undergo a period of accelerated growth. Firms that prudently expand in the region will benefit alot. Tps has a very clear strategy, well run. In addition tourism is one of the mainstays of the EA economy... So i agree that for a fundamental investor, this is a share to keep eyes on. Even at current price i believe the share will outperform the market in the longrun (5 years or more)
Life is short. Live passionately.
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