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Do spliters split, and do righters right?
winston
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 5:14:28 PM
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I have been trying to figure out whether stocks on the NSE that have in the past split are more likely to split in the future and that those that have issued rights are likely to issue other rights in the future. Are these 'bankable' stock habits?
guru267
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 6:36:10 PM
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winston wrote:
I have been trying to figure out whether stocks on the NSE that have in the past split are more likely to split in the future and that those that have issued rights are likely to issue other rights in the future. Are these 'bankable' stock habits?


@winston you clearly dont know the dynamics behind stock splits and rights issues... companies do these things for a reason not for fun... so whether they do more of the same in the future depends on a number of things

for example if Kenol increases its profit by 20 times then expect another split... if its fall by 10 times then expect a reverse split...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
winston
#3 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 11:49:03 AM
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@guru - Thanks.

From history KCB seems to prefer raising capital through rights issue now being its third one. As an investor, should I assume that this preference will manifest itself whenever they need funds? Should I basing on history expect it to have another rights issue in 3-4 years time?


As for the split, the effect is to increase liquidity and affordability of the shares. And maybe capital gains that were previously hindered by high price.

While centum was not a split but a bonus issue. Am wondering that now that their MD was quoted saying that they are conserving cash should an investor be expecting bonus shares every year till 2014?

While I appreciate that decisions on splits/rights/bonuses will depend on a number of things, I am wondering whether individual stocks tend to have their own peculiar habits? If so, then an investor having determined this peculiar habits can 'bank' on them.
My 2 cents
#4 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 11:55:07 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,070
winston wrote:
I have been trying to figure out whether stocks on the NSE that have in the past split are more likely to split in the future and that those that have issued rights are likely to issue other rights in the future. Are these 'bankable' stock habits?

You are onto something. KCB have made a habit of rights issues....

I love the name of the post...
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 12:39:34 PM
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Splits do not raise capital... while Rights raise capital...

Bonuses do not raise capital BUT are often used in lieu of paying dividends so they fall in between...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
winston
#6 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 5:17:09 PM
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@VVS - On splits: Taking KK as an example at 100/= it could have had potential capital gains of say 20/= if sold at 120/= Whoever investors may see that as expensive and have the price stagnant at 100/= hence the investor holding the share doesnt get the 20/= capital gain he could have.

Then the shares are split to 10/=. The same shares rise to say 12/= because of being apparently cheap, the 2/= capital gain potential is realised upon sale.

That was a long way of saying I meant splits may release 'potential capital gains' and not 'capital'...
guru267
#7 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 5:46:10 PM
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VituVingiSana wrote:
Bonuses do not raise capital BUT are often used in lieu of paying dividends so they fall in between...


Bonuses do not raise capital but they CONSERVE it... I actually am a huge supporter of bonuses especially when the conserved money is put to good use like in centums case meaning they will grow shareholder value and hence i wont feel the pinch of dilution even if i sell my bonus shares..

For example my average Buy price of JHL after the bonus is 160bob so if the H2 announcement is good will be selling my bonus shares at 190 which is a cool 11% return and no loss of capital
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
winston
#8 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 6:16:52 PM
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Location: Nairobi
Once a share goes ex-bonus is the share price meant to fall in the ratio of the new shares to the old?
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Friday, July 09, 2010 12:59:32 AM
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Location: Nairobi
winston wrote:
Once a share goes ex-bonus is the share price meant to fall in the ratio of the new shares to the old?

Rationally, yes... but rational isnt what often happens...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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