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KES breaches 78 vs $ for the first time in a year
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RVP
#1 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 6:14:41 PM
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Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 69
I am an exporter so this is good news. But what is causing this?
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 7:08:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
The dollar may have taken a hit after the latest job report revealed unemployment had increased over the past month.
Plus the Kenyan shilling may have gotten a boost with some analysts predicting the economy might grow more than the 4% being predicted earlier.
Horticulture may breath a sigh of relief after being hit by the Icelandic Ash which saw many flowers rot.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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kizee
#3 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 7:50:09 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
@ rvp

beleive it or not but some guy in NYSE with very fat fingers keyed in an oda to sell 1bn png shares as opposed to 1mio...the dow dipped like mad and as is customary some took this as an automatic indicator of surging risk aversion...thereafter the USD rallied madly against all G7 currencies and then EM ccys and then frontier ccys...imagine jana soko closed at 77.7585...todays first price was 78.2535..inakaa we aint seen ntg yet ....
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sparkly
#4 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 8:05:24 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
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Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@kizee forgive my ignorance, this png has over 1B shares?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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guru267
#5 Posted : Saturday, May 08, 2010 7:53:33 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
The dollar may have taken a hit after the latest job report revealed unemployment had increased over the past month.
Plus the Kenyan shilling may have gotten a boost with some analysts predicting the economy might grow more than the 4% being predicted earlier.
Horticulture may breath a sigh of relief after being hit by the Icelandic Ash which saw many flowers rot.


@youcant... i think you got the question wrong but i think the kenya shilling breaching 78 fromm 77.5 means it is weakening against the dollar not strengthening

@RVP this situation is being caused by the free fall of the euro during the week caused by the debt crisis in europe that led to the strengthening of the dollar
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Magigi
#6 Posted : Saturday, May 08, 2010 10:23:30 AM
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Joined: 3/31/2008
Posts: 7,081
Location: Kenya
...all currenvcies are weakening against the dollar. it is not just the Kenyan shilling. And as someone pointed out, the Greek situation is afftecting alot of things in Europe.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#7 Posted : Saturday, May 08, 2010 3:11:46 PM
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Guru, you're right. I misunderstood the question. Sorry there.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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kizee
#8 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 7:12:12 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
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[quote=sparkly]@kizee forgive my ignorance, this png has over 1B shares? http://www.msnbc.msn.com...eye_on_the_economy/from
proctor and gamble....trading on the new york stock exchange...


anyway the ECB seems to have saved the day and risk apettite returns....kes rallied somewat
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sparkly
#9 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 7:17:13 PM
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Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
kizee wrote:
[quote=sparkly]@kizee forgive my ignorance, this png has over 1B shares? [/

proctor and gamble..trading on the new york stock exchange...

aahaaa...
Life is short. Live passionately.
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trendsignal.co.ke
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 5:28:15 AM
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Joined: 4/9/2010
Posts: 34
Location: Kenya
Hi, If any of you want to see the Trendsignal (have a look at the Trendsignal forum on the Offshore page) charts for Ksh vs GBP and USD, please email me at kenya@trendsignal.co.uk and I will happily send them with explanation of what is happening and what will (my predictions only using Trendsignal charts) happen in the near future.
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kizee
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 6:45:04 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
trendsignal.co.ke wrote:
Hi, If any of you want to see the Trendsignal (have a look at the Trendsignal forum on the Offshore page) charts for Ksh vs GBP and USD, please email me at kenya@trendsignal.co.uk and I will happily send them with explanation of what is happening and what will (my predictions only using Trendsignal charts) happen in the near future.



where do u get ur data feed for kes prices?
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kizee
#12 Posted : Monday, May 17, 2010 9:05:41 AM
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OP

kes at 78.75*85...luks like the blood letting will continue
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tonicasert
#13 Posted : Monday, May 17, 2010 2:16:43 PM
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Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
kizee wrote:
OP

kes at 78.75*85...luks like the blood letting will continue


smile smile Good for some of us.

But Euro seems to be losing steam at 1.2300... If shorts start covering we may see USD paring some gains across the board. But who knows, someone may quite the EU tonite, and more bloodbath... Anxious What a market!
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guru267
#14 Posted : Monday, May 17, 2010 2:28:34 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the Euro has broken below a 4year low against the dollar at 1.233 with most analysts saying that this breach could send the euro to parity with the dollar if nothing is done to stop this...

this only spells disaster for the kenya shilling but not so bad for my portfolio because this will definitley see the kenya shilling rally against the uganda shilling due to pegs against the dollar
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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kizee
#15 Posted : Wednesday, May 19, 2010 7:29:14 AM
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so the euro breaks 1.22...kes at 79.10*20...GWAN!
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tonicasert
#16 Posted : Wednesday, May 19, 2010 8:22:12 AM
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Yeah some more bloodbath on the Euro after someone in German was bright enough to ban short selling on EUR denominated government bonds, credit derivative swaps plus bonds/shares. Reminiscent of US SEC in Sept, 2008, when stocks tumbled further after the ban. Euro at 1.15 and then parity are the next levels to watch.

Seems KES at 80.00 is liekely.
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Magigi
#17 Posted : Wednesday, May 19, 2010 10:09:14 AM
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Joined: 3/31/2008
Posts: 7,081
Location: Kenya
79.45000 +1.14999 +1.47%

Previous Close 78.30000 Bid 79.45000
Open 78.30000 Ask 79.55000
Day's High 79.45000
Day's Low 78.30000

This is serious. Anybody who knows what is happening other than the happenings in Europe...fall of the euro?
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kizee
#18 Posted : Wednesday, May 19, 2010 10:35:22 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
magigi

at these eurusd lvls, eurkes gets very cheap and creates importer interest and dampens exporter interest...gues its a case of basic economics..or rather traders reading into basic economics
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tonicasert
#19 Posted : Wednesday, May 19, 2010 1:39:11 PM
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Location: Abu Dhabi
Its also a case of risk aversion, as investors dump risky assets (stocks, bonds, commodities), and invest in USD and Yen assets in as uncertainty reigns with developments in Europe. Most developed and emerging markets' currencies (GBP, EUR, AUD, BRL, INR, ZAR, TRY, KES etc) have slumped heavily in the last few days as risk aversion dominates. Crude oil has also broken 70 (now 68.50), from 85 a week ago.
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kizee
#20 Posted : Wednesday, May 19, 2010 1:43:45 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
todays muv has little to do with risk aversion...some german dude proposes a ban on short sellin and the euro cru
mbles takin the kes with it...i hia theres talk of possible intervention on the euro...either way i thnk kes may recoup some gains
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