True imported inflation is a big factor, particularly since the World Bank expects Kenya's food security to worsen temporarily. But what about the inflation we export to Uganda. If Kenyan inflation was 20% in 2008 and now below 5% in 2010 does that mean there has been a corresponding change in the inflation exported to Uganda through trade. Probably not...
What is the difference between inflation on the ground and inflation statistics? so that means that all players must apply the same standards, so they can perceive inflation uniformly.
Interestingly what Kenya has done is change our perception of inflation...which has been reciprocated in Uganda and Tanzania (being implemented in Uganda and Tanzania right now between November 2009 and May 2010). Like this is a coordinated effort amongst the EA countries (backed by IMF) to promote a low interest rate regime regionally.
Indeed lower interest will be the catalyst for expansion if it's spent into circulation, but the govt is building its deposits and commercial banks would rather bid down auctions to get hold of govt paper...they're not taking the risk on Kenyans. So the current interest rate regime would seem more related to inflation targeting rather than for stimulus.
Equities is the place to be although the HFCK/Equity connection will operate as well as S&L/KCB connection...so generally buy banks with cost leadership advantage, Barclays, Equity, KCB.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden