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Best long run investment
muganda
#1 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 8:21:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
I need some help, pretty please.

Perhaps you've heard statement or claim that return from stocks beats all other asset classes (bonds, property) in the long run. Does this relate to the Kenyan context?

Someone from the NSE said they met a Barclays shareholder who purchased BBK at 0.50 cents. Any clue what prices shares were trading at in the NSE say in 1980/1990 to help compare with rates of return to property aquired in the same era?

ProverB
#2 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 8:29:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
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Location: Eastlander
i know a couple who bought 200 BBK shares in 1986...never bought shares again after that..ate the dividends..
as of dec 2008 the 200 shares through splits and bonuses had grown to 3360 shares..or there about..
imagine instead if they had a culture of buying 200 shares periodically..monthly/even annually?
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Fundaah
#3 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 8:30:21 AM
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Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 1,267
I met someone who bought a quarter acre in embakasi in 1993 at 68,000/= today the same plot is about 1.4m or more..and rising...thats why I've come to trust Land more than stocks...unlike stocks, land prices(in kenya) know only one direction ...UP ..
Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
muganda
#4 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 8:55:14 AM
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Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
smile Thanks for your responses so far.
@ProverB around what price was BBK in 1986?
guru267
#5 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:01:54 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
@muganda the best long run investments are either stocks or residential or commercial property not land because these tend to smash inflation in the long term whereas bonds tend to move at the same pace(or slower) than inflation...

but reader beware!!! stocks are very dependant on the type of inflation... demand pull inflation is wonderful for stocks whereas cost push inflation tends to slaughter stocks terribly in the long run
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#6 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:05:12 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
@muganda NSE stock prices dating to 1986 may be very hard to come by... but the wazua perfomance calculator can help you get stock prices from 1996
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ProverB
#7 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:06:11 AM
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Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
muganda wrote:
smile Thanks for your responses so far.
@ProverB around what price was BBK in 1986?

i think it was during the IPO. will have to confirm. but about 10/-
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
muganda
#8 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:07:29 AM
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Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
@guru267, from the aforementioned...
Considering the challenge of stocks in cost-push inflation, in your books, does real estate then offer better long term return as compared to stocks?
mkonomtupu
#9 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:08:28 AM
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Location: River Road
Muganda, the BBK IPO price in 1986 was 16/- and they issued 5,000,000 shares. It was oversubscribed by 600% and they raised around 80million. A house in Buru was like 200-250,000/-. Hope this helps!
guru267
#10 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:15:56 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
muganda wrote:
@guru267, from the aforementioned...
Considering the challenge of stocks in cost-push inflation, in your books, does real estate then offer better long term return as compared to stocks?


@muganda real estate (in emerging not developed markets) is very demand driven.. i'm very big on stocks but i cant deny that real estate in these markets does look poised to offer better long term returns than stocks but it locks out the smaller investors in terms of the amount of investment...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
luttz
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:23:50 AM
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Joined: 3/18/2008
Posts: 377
With land you can hardly go wrong- unless you buy the road reserve. Bought 1/4 in Syokimau in 2006 at 440k, now its going around 1.8m, bought elsewhere 1/2 acre in 2008 AT 4M, now going for 7-8M, if you have money- put it in land. Offcourse its prudent to diverse and spread risk- invest too in stocks. My policy now is 20% stocks, 20% Sacco and 60% land. SACCO is my immediate fallback when things are very thick. I never put money in the bank. I will review this in 1 years time
"You've never lived until you've almost died; for those who have fought for it, life has a flavour the protected will never know."
sheep
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 9:38:58 AM
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Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Both are good investments,as to which is better none can tell,but something is not right when land now accounts for around 60% of housing costs instead of the internationally accepted 20-30%,if the trend continues the next generation will never afford any property,Kenya is not creating millionaires daily and the current research shows the middle class who are the main drivers of the economy are becoming poorer,something has to give...probably prices wont come down but their is the likely hood of prices stagnating for a looooong period sometime in the future.My two cents
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
luttz
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 10:00:43 AM
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Joined: 3/18/2008
Posts: 377
@ Sheep

In agreement with your sentiments. That's why I mentioned that I will review my strategy in 1 years time. It will be not be business as usual. Sometimes last year- I saw an advert for housing units for rent in Tassia whee the vendor had said " 30% discount for the first 10 clients". His rent was within the neighbourhood rates. That tells you that people are moving away from rental units and the business is bound to change substantially in the future. Whatever venture we engage in, we must continuously research the market to identify the trend
"You've never lived until you've almost died; for those who have fought for it, life has a flavour the protected will never know."
ProverB
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 10:26:48 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mkonomtupu wrote:
Muganda, the BBK IPO price in 1986 was 16/- and they issued 5,000,000 shares. It was oversubscribed by 600% and they raised around 80million. A house in Buru was like 200-250,000/-. Hope this helps!


SPOT ON!!!!
..though stocks offer better if u periodically overhaul you stocks to get rid of dead weight stocks and get on new valu stocks.. Imagine had you had all this education in stocks now in 1986? ..trading peridically.
Difference between stocks and other investment vehicles is largely a matter of liquidity n fluidity in taking action. I'm sure though that forex beats stocks hand down...like comparing Man united to Oserian Fastac..ama Kogelo futbol klub.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
muganda
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 10:36:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Grateful for input so far. If I was attending a MSc class, I'd count the input as a week's worth of classes.

@lutz numbers impressive very strong case for property; though black swan shows @sheep fears may be confirmed.

@mkonomtupu based on your numbers...
BBK ~ 63x House ~ 24x

Maybe wise decision is to buy what you know or love. Though property (with its generous return) seems to allow for more mistakes as compared to stocks (one mistake could ring death knell).
wote
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 10:48:18 AM
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Joined: 10/18/2007
Posts: 217
Luttz, it all depends and i can assure that our land prices are speculative and not driven by an fundementals at all.
In 2003 a friend of mine put ksh 900,000.00 in mumias at ksh 3 per share. He sold them in 2006 at ksh45 per share that comes to 13.5m i doubt if he had put that money in two Syokimau plots he would be worth that much today.
sparkly
#17 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 3:38:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Stocks vs Land? Ask Warren Buffet this question and he will give you a good answer.

Stocks are associated with higher risk and return than land.

For you to reap the benefits of investing in stocks, you have to master the art/ science of investing in stocks:

- Picking the right stocks

- Diversifying

- Discipline (avoiding herd mentality)

- Averaging

- Re-investing the returns

- Knowing when to sell

The art/ science of investing in land is much simpler:

- Choose a good location

- Buy

- Wait

- Sell

Most "investors" who try their hand in stocks, mostly enter during a bull, depend on hot tips and think they are making money due to their own briliance. Sooner or later the bear comes and they get get burn't big time.

The likelihood of losing your capital tied up in land on the other hand is very low.

IMHO just buying 200 shares of Safcom in the IPO does not make you an investor any more than just buying 1/4 Acre in Kitengela.



Life is short. Live passionately.
muganda
#18 Posted : Tuesday, April 06, 2010 4:16:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
@sparkly smile inspiring...

Now assuming above average stock investor
vs above average property/real-estate investor

Which should give better return in the long run in Kenya? Muchos gracias.
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