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ProverB
#1 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 1:02:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Kshs 550,000 to invest..identiying 5 counters only..buying in lots of 10k per counter every week...regardless of price...on week 11 to 15..chill out on week 16..turnover the 5 counter portfolio..take in profit if need be.. start over again...

Any thing wrong with this picture?

Criteria..still workin on one..probably Low PSR,High ROE..on 2009 financials..serius fundamental checkout..keenly careful of corporate activity..ie book closure.
..liquid counters (for quick exit)..NOT SPECULATING..just a ver small long-tem window!smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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guru267
#2 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 3:17:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@proverB looks to me like your trying to burn all your money to cinders...

16 weeks is pure speculation
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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ProverB
#3 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 3:42:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
guru267 wrote:
@proverB looks to me like your trying to burn all your money to cinders...

16 weeks is pure speculation

@guru..i'm not trading..i'm buying in..if in 16 weeks of cost averaging happen to be profitable..i will take the profits..if not..no problem..
..it's just identifying 5 counters i don't mind holding for life..the buyin in is spread over 10 weeks..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Gordon Gekko
#4 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 8:48:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@proveB, your tone, language, mien, thinking process sounds so much like @jammo. Are you reincarnated?
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sheep
#5 Posted : Saturday, March 20, 2010 8:19:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
@gekko,

good observation,the similarities are striking.

However the term cost averaging is very different from averaging losses.The latter should never be practised.Lets say you decide to buy a fixed amount of Safcom worth 10k per month,at Kes 5.00 you will buy 200 shares,at Kes 10.00 you will buy 100 shares and so on.I think this strategy is superior to any other particularly if you add the modifications Ben Graham suggested of stopping buying when the p/e of the general market is historically high(above 20)and increasing frequency when the p/e is low.

in retrospect,practising this method in 2008-2009 would have yielded fabulous results.It seems simple but actually doing it is harder than it seems.

The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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ProverB
#6 Posted : Saturday, March 20, 2010 9:41:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@proveB, your tone, language, mien, thinking process sounds so much like @jammo. Are you reincarnated?

@GGekko..i'm honored!..seems i learnt well..jammo did some investor educ around colleges n youth groups sometimes in mid 2008..he came to K.U..changed my thinking..left alist of a must read books..including B. Grahams Intelligent investor.. i'm still impressed..would really want to meet him..

@Murenj.. i have no intention of buying safcom... lowest critiria..(sic)...3 year average of ROE 15%..Low Price to sales Ratio 2008 and 2009,earnings growth>15 %... somehow not too liquid a share..and others.. safcom doesn't fit in.
2. whatever counter i'm buying..if i'm using 110k..i WILL NOT BUY at once..but spread the buys over 10 weeks..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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sheep
#7 Posted : Saturday, March 20, 2010 9:52:57 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
proverb is definitely jammo! Welcome back.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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guru267
#8 Posted : Monday, March 22, 2010 6:03:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@ProverB i think what an investor has to do is look at market trends before practicing what you are preaching..

the strategy you speak of works perfectly in a bear market since one can over the weeks manage to get a good cost average..

but on the other hand in a bull market thats suicide.. there's no advantage of having money and into counters at higher prices every week when one can buy the whole batch at once and watch his/her investment grow over those same weeks...

to use an example.. in the last ten weeks how well would your strategy have worked??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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ProverB
#9 Posted : Monday, March 22, 2010 9:37:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
guru267 wrote:
@ProverB i think what an investor has to do is look at market trends before practicing what you are preaching..

the strategy you speak of works perfectly in a bear market since one can over the weeks manage to get a good cost average..

but on the other hand in a bull market thats suicide.. there's no advantage of having money and into counters at higher prices every week when one can buy the whole batch at once and watch his/her investment grow over those same weeks...

to use an example.. in the last ten weeks how well would your strategy have worked??


@guru. point noted.. i am using trends..and no..am not banking on a bear trend..but the fact that growth counters with reasonable liquidity will have price flactuate every single day..i have no means of knowing whether the changes will be higher or lower from day to next..i just know i want to buy in at the most reasonble prices..which if spaced is largely average.. buying once a week..10 weeks?..seriously i'd be wrong to buy at the same prices..i'd rather wait out..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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subaru
#10 Posted : Monday, March 22, 2010 9:38:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2010
Posts: 391
Location: nairobie
@ proverb buy kcb @ 2days lowest price sell next week when it rises +1.50 sh repeat the process when it goes down just 4 a start
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guru267
#11 Posted : Monday, March 22, 2010 11:05:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@proverB most stable counters dont trade with a range of more than 5% on both sides in 10weeks... so your strategy wont be much different from an investor who throws everything at a counter and waits out the flactuations...

but then again its up to you and theres no harm in trying out a strategy you've come up with unless........
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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