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CURRENT NSE BULL: HAS THE EAGLE ALREADY FLOWN?
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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I have been busy attending some matters only to get back to wazua and find the NSE having a bull albeit i admit a selective one. What has happened in the Agricultural sector to warrant a fast-paced increase in share prices? Or is it that Kenyans who have all along feared investing in NSE stocks preferring plots in Ruai, Kitengela, Juja, Kiserian and places in between have decided to return to the NSE? Or could it be the institutional investors who had hidden their clients cash in treasury bills and bonds where moths would not reach it who have decided to try out equities with higher risks but higher returns? Or is it the NSE "old-timers" and speculators who are outdoing themselves and each other trying to buy shares the public and from each other to increase prices? Or is it a mixture of all those?
What opinion do the gurus of wazua have as to when to sell or do we just all wait until the bull out runs itself and watch what happens thereafter (which i have done before without much laughter)?
I have to admit i missed out on the Agricultural shares recovery safe for Sasini which i nearly sold a month ago at the advice of wazurians. Will the other shares e.g. KQ, EABL, MUMIAS & KCB) which are curretly lagging behind also follow the direction of the bull? Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Bure, use a legible font colour. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 204
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Unaniumiza macho Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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This bull is nothing like I had imagined,are those NSSF guys back coz majority of the buying is from locals. Pump the prices,up up we go! for all of us who were well invested below 3000pts the market is paying what it owes us. Can this sucker touch 7000pts before 2014? The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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CBK weekly bulletin excerpts "The holdings of Government securities by commercial banks increased from 52.4 percent in June 2009 to 57.6 percent as at February 19, 2010 while those of pension funds declined marginally from 22.3 percent to 21.8 percent during the same period. Similarly, holdings of insurance companies, parastatals and other investors declined from 11.6 percent, 7.1 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively to 10.2 percent, 6.4 percent and 4.0 percent during the same period . Given that institutional investor reduced their investment in government securities and most probably pumped those investments to stock and coupled by foreign investor interests the bull run is definately justified by this demand. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@cicero it is "EVERYONE" coming back to the NSE especially the institutions... if one looks at the NSE most of the firms are reporting profit growth, a few profit reduction, and the number reporting a full year loss is negligble and this in the wake of the worst financial crisis since the depression and 1.7& GDP growth.. compare this to DOW and the FTSE exchanges which are also rising slowly inspite of many heavy weight companies reporting full year loss eg CITIBANK, HSBC... Also investors should know we "economists" know that this is a trough in the profit cycle for most companies and that most emerging markets are headed for a super cycle which last for about 10-15 years... and if i'm not mistaken kenya is one of those markets... thats what the fund managers and economists of these institutions are advising hence this crazy rally... too bad the foreigners got in earlier though... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 64 Location: Far East
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I just dont get it... why is it that all of a sudden all the institutional investors decide to come back then after a short while they all decide to withdraw kwani is this a wild beats migration??.... becarefull if they decide to go back 2 where they came from again utaliwa.. selling ur stuff will be difficult...
@ cicero... unanunua when everything looks sooo bad.. yaani no one wants to hear about NSE. ALAFU u find a kiti under a lemon tree sit and just watch how the beat goes. u will definately get cool returns. the problem is u must have guts to buy when all looks bad. ati u wait till things move up alafu u start ur stories...utaliwa mzee. now either danda the train or wait for another crush and buy...usiwe tamaa saaaana... just wait
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Let us pass this constitution  bull bull
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Lets make some mooonie! Its very hard to control the human emotions of greed and fear... For those who painfully stuck with the nse when the chips were down, let the greedy ones come make us rich! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/29/2010 Posts: 23
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The eagle is taxing. Take off with it. The Agri Stocks will be onboard.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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Just here in another thread wazurians were asking me when i bought my shares because they looked like i had been conned. I have now started to smile. Figure this out: I have about 10K shares of Sasini bought at 18, 16, 15, 13, 8 etc. My average was 15bob for Sasini n i had figured i lost out as i would never sell it. But look at the good old NSE now they are where i want them. Same thing with KQ, i did 54, 40, 36, 25, 22, 19 for a total of 10K and an average of 29.50 and i thot i'd lost out. N NBK was the worst, my average was 48! Now surely i am having the last laugh ... BUT NOT YET BECAUSE I AM YET TO SELL AND I WILL WAIT A WHILE LONGER TO SEE HOW NSE PSYCHOLOGY BENEFITS OR KILLS ME! Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Cicero wrote:Just here in another thread wazurians were asking me when i bought my shares because they looked like i had been conned. I have now started to smile. Figure this out: I have about 10K shares of Sasini bought at 18, 16, 15, 13, 8 etc. My average was 15bob for Sasini n i had figured i lost out as i would never sell it. But look at the good old NSE now they are where i want them. Same thing with KQ, i did 54, 40, 36, 25, 22, 19 for a total of 10K and an average of 29.50 and i thot i'd lost out. N NBK was the worst, my average was 48! Now surely i am having the last laugh ... BUT NOT YET BECAUSE I AM YET TO SELL AND I WILL WAIT A WHILE LONGER TO SEE HOW NSE PSYCHOLOGY BENEFITS OR KILLS ME! @cicero is it that post where you were seeking advise and i said i would further average down sasini and kengen? Sasini was something like 6/- Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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The market has legs. There will be a downturn but overall for those who can/will wait, it will continue rising... unless the politicians screw us up... again! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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@cicero Just imagine if u had cut your losses quickly after it was clear you were making losses,then waited for an opportune moment to get in.I know conventional wisdom dictates that one cannot time the market but in my experience its not so hard infact in march lows it was so obvious almost beyond doubt that the NSE was about to rally...and if wazua was kind enough to retrieve the posts you will see several posts where I was shouting on roof tops for guyz to buy coz I had already made my commitments! yea coz when you buy and cant buy any more is when you urge people to buy!...the only problem is that I jumped in too soon rather than wait for the market to confirm my thinking was right by advancing,I cheated myself out of the early profits esp. in KQ. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111
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Ithink i am getting experience at the NSE by the hour. If someone was an intelligent machine (like those cinema cyborgs from the future which Schwazzenegger was happy to act), with completely no human human emotions, i think such a "human-cyborg" can make a lot of money at the NSE. Bear me out for a bit ... A cyborg would sell shares without as much as a single emotion when necessary and buy shares worth a little fortune even when Warren Buffet is running to the hills! A cyborg would not have missed Mumias sugar when it was 2.70 or KQ when it was 17 bob or Kakuzi when it was 22 bob. It would have bought Williamson Tea at 45 bob when everyone had taken to the hills. It's all an issue of pychology and if someone was to do Yoga and meditate till they get an intimate hold of their chi, control it completely, acting only with 100% reason and 0% emotion, they'd make a killing at the NSE. Any thoughts to the contrally? Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/19/2006 Posts: 113 Location: Mombasa
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Its still time to buy, buy now, the index is supposed to hit 4040 - 4050! Next week "BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN AND HOLD AS LONG AS YOU FEEL" or UNTIL BIGCHAIR TELLS YOU TO! Sound that I love most: Is the ringing bell of Stock Market.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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The index is already at 4,000 points. Will it keep going up, will there be another frenzy? The principle of greed tells me YES. The people who were moving the markets and making a kill in 2006 are hungry to make it happen again. If a new constitution passes, there will be another bull. During a bull market your money works for you, during the bear your money runs away from you. This is a game of chess. If something negative happens though, beware the market could go to lows not previously reached. I'm no longer buying coz I'm out of money so I'm just watching from the sidelines for now.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@cicero you are very right... i dont ever touch agriculturals because of my negative sentiment towards them... now i'm just kicking myself for refusing to act on what was in my face... these stocks were/are extremely cheap but i think its almost impossible to get in now... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Agriculturals have had a great run,i still feel Kenya re,Kenol and Jubilee will do well once the results come in.KQ also seems to have some mileage left and if you have forgotten Equity look at the economic indicators all round,the bank thrives on the low end uptick.And pray the mpigs dont messy what is looking like a great year at the NSE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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@cnn, Kenol will do well. For a stock I first got at ksh 115, it has taken quite some buying to average to ksh 67. I expect a bonus issue given the acquisitions they have been making, there is no reason why the price shouldn't hit the nineties after announcement.
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CURRENT NSE BULL: HAS THE EAGLE ALREADY FLOWN?
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