Wazua
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Investment in shares in a politically charged Country is for steel hearted
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/19/2008 Posts: 1,267
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Guys Im out of NSE ..till the politics in this country settles...each time I buy shares thinking they are at rock bottom or a recovery is in sight....I'm always wrong...2 to 3 days a politician utters a word and Im at a negative position....this is becoming too frustrating and I think its becoming too hard to make money at the NSE...Such a string of loses is becoming unbearable...you can easily get a heart attack...for the sake of my heart ...I'm out of NSE... Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/16/2007 Posts: 2,114
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@Fundaah, Pole bro/sis...we are in the same boat  . So,what's the alternative?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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Rothschild said: Buy when there is blood in the streets... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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The secret is not to buy on emotions. And don't invest what you can't afford to lose (an oxymoron because only the rich can't, but what it means is that don't invest what you can't afford to lose in the short-term). In other words, buy when nobody is interested in buying e.g. last yr. The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@fundaah... sorry to hear about that thats exactly why i stopped using the NSE for speculation but rather for investing.. no amount of political games can touch this strategy... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/22/2008 Posts: 79
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@ fund-aah
Yesterday is not today and today is not tomorrow for each day rises fresh from the hands of God bringing forth whatsoever it will.And again to want more is to be confused and great expectations make frustrated men.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Fundaah wrote:Guys Im out of NSE ..till the politics in this country settles...
I believe the people of Kenya are mature now. Stupid political utterances don't worry me anymore. They actually create opportunity to buy low from the mass migration.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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More fool you. unlike most of the developed markets, politics in Kenya is business and business is politics. Utasomeka mpaka unjue hivyo. The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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@2012 - I agree with wa-ithaka... In developed countries e.g. USA/UK... political 'heat' means lawsuits, words bandied about & bruised egos at most... (political violence is very rare or localized) In Kenya (among most other developing countries)... political bad blood translates to spilt blood... 3,000 dead from political violence would be a major turning point in the USA (whose population 9x Kenya)... yet in Kenya... it is almost business as usual... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Expect a lot of volatility between now and July as the politicians haggle over the constitution. Think long term and think of fundamentals. If you look at the NSE index over 5-10 years we are in a classic "wall of worries" when the market is looking for new direction.
i think the trajectory looks up. Look at India in in the late 1990's when they had a coalition government(BJP party) that was always fighting but they sorted that country's infrastructure and business climate. Or South Africa in 1993-1994. Long term the prospects look good.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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What a bad time to bail out of the NSE just as all technical indicators are looking up.We might go sideways for the better part of this year but the trajectory is up...maybe near 5000pts by 2012 feel free to ignore politics coz what is widely expected to happen by the majority is usually discounted by the smart money,a small blip to trick wishy washy investors will definitely occur and we will sail to new utopia then something drastic,sudden and unexpected occurs and catches majority of investors on the wrong side and usher in a beginning of new sorrows. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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@Fundaah, you have a point. History shows that it is likely that a politically charged environment may lead to bloodletting. There is always the lull before the storm. Rwanda had a mini-genocide before the actual genocide. The prudent investor should diversify from such a risky market and have a safety net through diversification to less risky markets.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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In Africa... the truth is that you should have 'alternates' just in case... Look at Kenya in 2007-8... I was fully invested... and even put in more during the lull in Jan 2008 thinking the blood-letting would not escalate... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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@fudaah,when you are back i will sell to you what i am buying now at a premium.
The Agriculture counters seem to be picking up,if they could just realise their NAVs....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:@fudaah,when you are back i will sell to you what i am buying now at a premium.
The Agriculture counters seem to be picking up,if they could just realise their NAVs.... LOL... These firm should just sell the land to GoK at a fair price & be done! Look at the land that these firms have... perhaps the IDPs can be re-settled there? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/19/2008 Posts: 1,267
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Cnn...before you brag..this 'it's time to buy' song has been here since late 2008.... If you are in the market for a long time say next 5 years ....you may gain but from now to January 2012...if you are faint hearted look for alternative channels to put your money.... otherwise take a comprehensive insurance for your health... Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/19/2008 Posts: 1,267
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VituVingiSana wrote:In Africa... the truth is that you should have 'alternates' just in case...
Look at Kenya in 2007-8... I was fully invested... and even put in more during the lull in Jan 2008 thinking the blood-letting would not escalate... I like this. Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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If I could recall,the PEV didn't affect the market much.The lowest it got was 4500 and then levitated to 5500.I was greatly surprised by the resilience of the market then,it is only after the US financial crisis that things began to unfold...reasons are always there to justify personal beliefs. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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It works both ways. So..as an example...if the Draft Constitution passes the referendum (which it likely will), what do you imagine is the effect on the NSE?...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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@fundaah,we have choices so i will buy on each month like i have for the last six years,the rewards have been great in most cases and i can survive the few hiccups.Patience and resilience are key, the crisis of late 08 to early last year has taught me this.If you must have your money over night dont put it on the NSE.Bail out if you must,there are other rooms but the kitchen.
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Investment in shares in a politically charged Country is for steel hearted
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