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NSE and the unfolding political drama
haiyaa
#1 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 6:27:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 99
aren't the polical theatrics of the weekend going to severely hurt the recent recovery of share prices at the NSE.What if the PM decides to pull off the government? Fresh elections and the related political risks !!
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:02:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
Yes... except for Nation & Standard...

News sells newspapers and ads... political ads will be up again on TV & newspapers...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#3 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:09:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
haiyaa wrote:
aren't the polical theatrics of the weekend going to severely hurt the recent recovery of share prices at the NSE.What if the PM decides to pull off the government?


I doubt it. The PM is not as popular as he used to be. If he quite only a small part of the railway will be uprooted.... then repaired....

BBI will solve it
:)
selah
#4 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:12:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
At the moment I dont think the political enviroment is alarming.But if Raila was to walk out and by so doing raise the political temperatures then most foreigh investors might fear what happened in 2008 and withdraw most of their investments especially in safaricom and mumias.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:20:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
The entire economy will be affected if the government falls...

1) Increased corruption as it will be evidence of no action by kibaki & friends. Note his group control the financial strings (uhuru, kinyua, ndungu) of Kenya. (Banks will suffer from higher defaults)

2) Any violence means tourism (TPSEA & KQ) will suffer.

3) Farmers in RV will be reluctant to buy new tractors, lorries & pickups (CMC). Imports & exports suffer (Express)

4) Violence means loss of property. Insurance firms like Jubilee, Pan African & Kenya Re will see losses. Also add banks to this group as defaults rise since 'collateral' is destroyed.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:12:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
The sooner the coalition govt collapses the better for the economy. We need decisive leadership and two principals cant give us that. Of course the short term effects will be fall in prices, but the outlook after that will be positive.
anasazi
#7 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:15:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 675
@GG, I beg to differ. I think a semblance of stability would be better for the economy.... We are yet to recover proper from 2008. Why would we want to go that way again?
Form is temporary, class is permanent
the deal
#8 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:27:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
so kenya is gonna self destruct again...when i thought things were getting better....politics holds the country hostage again...with this type of leaders africa will never move forward..
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:55:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@GG - I know what you mean... I think we should have let the PEV run its course in 2008 but we just postponed the inevitable...

Anyway, I want the peace to hold until I can sell off all I have... maybe shift it to Namibia!!! @the deal?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FundamentAli
#10 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:00:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
How does one contribute to such a topic? We have a big stakein the stockmarket. I feel like George Bush trying to protect the NYSE after 9/11. Say nothing to prevent things going down south.
ecstacy
#11 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:16:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
We expected some differences in the coalition govt. Since none of the principals and their members are going anywhere, life continues. RAO is isolated so no risk of a destabilsed country, confused yes.
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:17:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
FundamentAli wrote:
How does one contribute to such a topic? We have a big stakein the stockmarket. I feel like George Bush trying to protect the NYSE after 9/11. Say nothing to prevent things going down south.

Does not hide the truth, does it?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#13 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:19:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
GG, I agree we need decisive leadership. This mseto thing is just not going to help the economy. I was looking at the Vision 2030 medium term plan and the projected growth for 2009-2010 was 7.9-8.7%. We can't even do half of that this year. Just do a new voter register, minimum constitutional reforms and lets go to the debe.
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:22:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
ecstacy wrote:
We expected some differences in the coalition govt. Since none of the principals and their members are going anywhere, life continues. RAO is isolated so no risk of a destabilsed country, confused yes.

I disagree... Kenya is tribalized... and as the KKKK joins forces so will the anti-KKKK

A repeat of the PEV in 2008 except the kalenjins have changed sides...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#15 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:32:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
The sooner the coalition govt collapses the better for the economy. We need decisive leadership and two principals cant give us that. Of course the short term effects will be fall in prices, but the outlook after that will be positive.


I totally agree with you.

BBI will solve it
:)
the deal
#16 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:33:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs the namibian stock exchange welcomes you....lets hope raila does not pull out of this coalitition thing....i was begining to have confidence in kenya...looks like political stability is key before one invests...
ecstacy
#17 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:38:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
It's when the Kalenjin Warriors and Taliban are on the same side that the country is in serious problems...railways on their own can be fixed.
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:39:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@the deal: How bad is corruption in Namibia?
I have read that sam nujoma was not above a few extra goodies... but is corruption widespread?

How do you compare Namibia to Botswana?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#19 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 10:19:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs corruption in Namibia is always dealt with an iron fist...Namibia is just like Botswana...only that Namibia has a bigger population than Botswana @ 2mil compared to Botswana 1.6mil but the namibian stock exchange(nsx) is more liquid and its now the 2nd in Africa in terms of market capitalisation the only problems is its mostly dominated by institutional investors...sam nujoma is now retired hardly speaks....ja his name was named in few corruption scandals notably the avid scandal where the mastermind commited suicide before prosecution, the goverment was able to recover the money lost...something the GOK cant do...
Fundaah
#20 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 11:03:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 1,267
the deal wrote:
..ja his name was named in few corruption scandals notably the avid scandal where the mastermind commited suicide before prosecution, the goverment was able to recover the money lost...something the GOK cant do...

...do we see a kenyan ever doing this...
Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
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