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coop or kengen
fisher
#1 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2009 11:25:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/9/2009
Posts: 6
Am wondering of where to put ma money into.which is mo promising

Make money instantly
sparkly
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2009 8:13:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@ Fisher,CO-OP of course:


Greatly underpriced
Strong consistent growth
Niche market - Co-op movement
New products - Mortgages
New markets - South sudan
Not as liquid as might appear - the co-op movement holds 65% or so of the shares which are not regularly traded. Share will be much sought after once the IPO speculators exit (every time the share touches 10.50)

KENGEN's PE is low for but forgeting all the media hype generated by PIBO,KENGEN cannot match the opportunities offered by CO-OP.


Life is short. Live passionately.
Evolve
#3 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2009 8:32:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 96
@ Sparkly

What is your take on the shares held by the Coop Holding (65%)? Will they depress the prices when they get unlocked and what would be a fiar price?




e_kijana
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2009 4:18:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/17/2009
Posts: 55
You really do not have to worry about the 65% being offloaded if you plan to hold for under 4 years... So dont stress yourself now unless of course you are such a long term investor.
ecstacy
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2009 4:29:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
Is your interest to make money or be a Kengen/Coop shareholder? If its the former,you'd have been on around 25% return on KQ in the past three months not 4 years. The trend continues with high holiday bookings and anticipated increased travel on its routes come 2010...the year the global economy will undeniably be back to growth on average scale..oil prices..number of travellers...back to your thread....still can't see why either or on this two for 4yrs? Anyway,Coop my pick..don't see a rush to dump from them..delve into their top shareholding list and you may get better ideas on who if anyone would be first to rain it on wanjiku.
sparkly
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2009 5:21:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@Evolve,Co-op Holdings Co-operative Society Limited which holds the 65% of the shares consists of 3,805 members.

The top 10 shareholders of the Co-op Holdings are the following:

1. Harambee Cooperative Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 83,374,900 - 3.70%

2. Telepost Co-operative Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 66,853,800 - 2.97%

3. Afya Cooperative Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 66,306,900 - 2.94%

4. Masaku Teachers Coop Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 65,314,900 - 2.90%

5. Kipsigis Teachers Coop Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 55,414,000 - 2.46%

6. Kenya Police Sacco Society Ltd - 52,539,200 - 2.33%

7. Kiambu Unity Finance Co-operative Union Ltd - 51,205,700 - 2.27%

8. Nandi Teachers Coop Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 40,161,800 - 1.78%

9. Aembu FCS Ltd - 40,005,000 - 1.77%

10. Mungania Tea Growers Coop Savings & Credit Society Ltd - 35,453,200 - 1.57%



In my opinion,chances that the co-operatives will liquidate their shares or make them available for active trading in the very near future are quite remote.



You do not need to be overly worried of excess liquidity caused by trading of the Co-op Movement shares.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Eddy
#7 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2009 6:18:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/20/2006
Posts: 277
@sparks
This figures do not add up 24.69% against the said 65% or is this just a sample?

I would urge people to be careful with Coop Bank as i find it quite rigid,'Parastalism' mentatility still exist even with the cut throat competition in the banking industry,but again i could be wrong maybe the 65% are their customers and they don't need more.

Kengen is also looking 'too far ahead' because there is demand for their product which requires massive capital investment,besides the bond offer they still have other loans they are servicing and will need even more.

VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2009 6:44:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
@eddy... bwana... @sparkly was very clear... TOP 10... so no wonder it does not add up to 65%... u can see the holding by individual co-ops are less than 3% so there many more names...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2009 6:48:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
I am going to second ecstasy... KQ went thru a rough,rough patch... No guarantees for the future but the oil hedges are looking up (for now)... and at the AGM they said bookings for Oct-Dec were also up. AGM was held end of Sep so they had a good idea of future (3-6 month) bookings. I think the 2H will be good but we will not get the financial information till May 30 (or so) of 2010.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
e_kijana
#10 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2009 6:58:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/17/2009
Posts: 55
@Eddy

Kengen listed approx 2 years ago and the price has moved lower each time... They chose to raise money through the bond market and will keep about 25 Billion of the bond debt collected,meaning with 12.5% interest they have to pay out,they will be paying out 3.125 Billion in the 1st few years to bond holders before they pay shareholders like you. Note that these payments will happen before the actual infrastructure investments are put in place (could take years). I also wonder how much profit they made last year? They may afford to pay the bondholders without any issue,but you can bet the dividend will be reduced or stagnant for a long while for common stock holders... This market is still largely driven by dividends and growth perceptions... so are you willing to look as far foward as 15 the years you need with Kengen?
Mainat
#11 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:02:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Over the next 2 yrs,only an idiot would buy KenGen. 2012,Gen Kiguoya retires,we have a new president and possibly new CEO at KenGen. Then you have to wonder what the new president will bring in. Could be an honourable Samuel Gichuru. Could be an Eddy Njoroge who has done wonders...

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
The General
#12 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 6:29:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
@ Mainat,

Interesting,and what of KP & LC?

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
Mainat
#13 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 7:43:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Gen- KPLC is a buy/hold for 18 months. Good solid revenue generation with no increased financing costs unlike KenGen...

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
The General
#14 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 8:55:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
@ Mainat,

I am one of the idiots,lets see how it plays out.

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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