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KPLC & KENGEN SHARP RISE I
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,070 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Any reason, anyone? A bit suprising because there no fresh news in public domain. Their full year earnings report expected many months away in late oct. At this pace KPLC at 19 and Kengen at 11 bob seems a reality. Many years ago (2003/2004) I have witnessed KPLC rise from 13 bob to 150 bob in the same year !!! KENGEN was not listed then. Maybe history wants to repeats itself this year in a "small" way. KPLC HY was however steller. 31 times higher than previous year. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/11/2006 Posts: 912
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Just sold kplc at 11 hoping to re enter again at below 9 “Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,716
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Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/1/2019 Posts: 104
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Kusadikika wrote:Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes. KPLC is particularly cheap on a P/E basis. Both trailing and forward
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes. What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,716
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mlennyma wrote:Kusadikika wrote:Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes. What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,070 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Kusadikika wrote:mlennyma wrote:Kusadikika wrote:Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes. What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies? For KPLC a little as 10% will reduce GOK holdings to 41% , may still be majority shareholder. This will fetch GOK 2.2 billion ksh The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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young wrote:Kusadikika wrote:mlennyma wrote:Kusadikika wrote:Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes. What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies? For KPLC a little as 10% will reduce GOK holdings to 41% , may still be majority shareholder. This will fetch GOK 2.2 billion ksh Research well the consequences of falling below 50% by the government "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,070 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again. As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October. I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2010 Posts: 160 Location: Kenya
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young wrote:The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise Hi @young for KPLC they have had a good run which we can credit to: (1)KES to USD appreciation. KPLC buys power in hard currencies mainly USD. 90% of it's debt is in USD too. (2) A new board and board structure-This did away with some forms of blatant thievery. (3) There's growing demand for power. They keep hitting new consumer supply numbers like every quarter.Cheap excess power is available from Ethiopia(cheapest in Africa??). (4) KPLC was just grossly under priced. We can lazily project a FY EPS of 10. Valuing a profitable, dividend paying monopoly(substantial moat) at less than EPS & NAV was just crazy. For Kengen capacity expansion in the long term is a plus; several projects from wind, solar, battery storage.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2010 Posts: 160 Location: Kenya
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@ young care to share on any gems listed at your local exchange and also brokers over there who tolerate Kenyans?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,070 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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DtheK wrote:@ young care to share on any gems listed at your local exchange and also brokers over there who tolerate Kenyans? Greetings @Dthek. kindly be aware that I stopped investing in our local bourse since 2019. This is due to currency risk. Out local currency naira has been loosing value consistently so any gain in stocks is eroded by inflation. Currently our inflation stands around 22% whereras kenya is under 6% so the difference is clear. When I first invested in nairobi bourse way back in 2004 1 ksh was 1.4 naira fast forward now 1 ksh is 12 naira. in dollar terms currently 1 USD is 129.50 ksh whereas 1 USD is 1,510 naira. You can kindly verify in google? Nonetheles if interested notwitstanding the big risk outlined, you can contact my stock broker then www.afrinvest.com for guidance. Notable and popular counters with strong fundamentals are in banking , telecommunication and industrial sectors such as GT bank Zenith Bank Dangote Cement MTN Of recent things are not as rosy in Nigeria as you guys think or believe over the years. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,070 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Profit taking by off shore investors depressed some liquid counters. https://www.businessdail...ks-to-lock-gains-5182464The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,265 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:young wrote:Kusadikika wrote:mlennyma wrote:Kusadikika wrote:Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes. What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies? For KPLC a little as 10% will reduce GOK holdings to 41% , may still be majority shareholder. This will fetch GOK 2.2 billion ksh Research well the consequences of falling below 50% by the government Firms with less than 50% owned by GOK seem to do much better. GoK has less than 50% in Safaricom. The firm has done very well since GoK's control was less than 50%. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,657
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The driver was taking a brief health break. Buses back on the road. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,797 Location: NAIROBI
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DtheK wrote:young wrote:The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise Hi @young for KPLC they have had a good run which we can credit to: (1)KES to USD appreciation. KPLC buys power in hard currencies mainly USD. 90% of it's debt is in USD too. (2) A new board and board structure-This did away with some forms of blatant thievery. (3) There's growing demand for power. They keep hitting new consumer supply numbers like every quarter.Cheap excess power is available from Ethiopia(cheapest in Africa??). (4) KPLC was just grossly under priced. We can lazily project a FY EPS of 10. Valuing a profitable, dividend paying monopoly(substantial moat) at less than EPS & NAV was just crazy. For Kengen capacity expansion in the long term is a plus; several projects from wind, solar, battery storage. Wind,solar,battery storage is throwing good money at a bad investment. They better stick with hydroelectric,geothermal and possibly LNG or Coal Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 992 Location: Kenya
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Ericsson wrote:DtheK wrote:young wrote:The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise Hi @young for KPLC they have had a good run which we can credit to: (1)KES to USD appreciation. KPLC buys power in hard currencies mainly USD. 90% of it's debt is in USD too. (2) A new board and board structure-This did away with some forms of blatant thievery. (3) There's growing demand for power. They keep hitting new consumer supply numbers like every quarter.Cheap excess power is available from Ethiopia(cheapest in Africa??). (4) KPLC was just grossly under priced. We can lazily project a FY EPS of 10. Valuing a profitable, dividend paying monopoly(substantial moat) at less than EPS & NAV was just crazy. For Kengen capacity expansion in the long term is a plus; several projects from wind, solar, battery storage. Wind,solar,battery storage is throwing good money at a bad investment. They better stick with hydroelectric,geothermal and possibly LNG or Coal Battery storage is not bad, it should be used to complement wind, solar and geothermal during off-peak hours thus reducing curtailment.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,070 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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After about 3 weeks of profit taking and KEGN & KPLC loosing steam. The final bull run is in the offing against late October Final results announcement. I forsee them surpassing their recent highs with KPLC doing better than KEGN based on their HY 2025 results and as events unfold so far. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/11/2006 Posts: 912
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Kenya Power [@KenyaPower] FY 24/25 Results [KES, YoY]: —Revenue: -5% to 219.8B —Cost of Sales: -3.9% to 144.7B —Gross Profit: -7.3% to 74.6B —Operating Profit: -4.9% to 39.5B —Finance Costs: -4.7B (2024: 682M) —PAT: -18% to 24.5B —EPS: 12.54 [23/24: 15.41] —Dividend: 1.00 [Interim: 0.20 + Final: 0.80] “Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,626
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The system losses are still high.
I can see a rights issue coming
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