What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.

catch 22

A mganga can predict

Rather stay put.. Ya election liwe liwalo. NSE isn't closing

These are the potential outcomes after the election:
1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market.
2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market.
3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses.

In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits.

Is NASA really that business unfriendly?

There will definitely be a rise in the market following peaceful elections. I have been told that there is lots of money waiting on the sidelines

I know you are just looking for a dip to get in

Violence that happened last was in Rift Valley, the hustler's backyard and escalated from there. Hustler is in bed with the majority Kikuyus and also in government. Nothing expected there, whomever wins. Violence, if any will happen in the lakeside and/or Kibra... inconsequential to the business community, if you ask me.

Fear mongering might be a business tactic to keep current prices favourable, for a good harvest. Else market would have factored in the opposite... and it does have its sources

Ahsante @mlennyma yes, keyword is uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. It's an open secret that NASA leans the socialist way and business men will wait and see if policies like rent controls will be effected.

Violence has been a constant feature of our elections. 3/4 of the last elections have been violent. Even this election has had instances of localized violence in Garissa, Guthurai, Bomet, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Machakos, Nairobi among other places.

Nationalized violence is a real probability.