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NBK HY 2015 PAT up 123%
Pesa Nane
#1 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 10:26:36 AM
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Joined: 5/25/2012
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Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Pesa Nane
#2 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 10:31:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
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Location: 08c
Disclosures

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
mwekez@ji
#3 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 10:43:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause
xxxxx
#4 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 10:45:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 503
Pesa Nane wrote:
Disclosures



Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause
Pesa Nane
#5 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 10:50:01 AM
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Joined: 5/25/2012
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Location: 08c
Quite an interest.

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 11:42:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
I respect what Sunil Sanger says. He seems independent of the PR analysts who tweet for ads and dinner invitations.

The reduction in (UNAUDITED) Loan Loss Provisions is HUGE in an environment that has interest rates increasing and 'money' tightening as CBK reins in liquidity.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MaichBlack
#7 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:05:40 PM
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Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
VituVingiSana wrote:
I respect what Sunil Sanger says. He seems independent of the PR analysts who tweet for ads and dinner invitations.

The reduction in (UNAUDITED) Loan Loss Provisions is HUGE in an environment that has interest rates increasing and 'money' tightening as CBK reins in liquidity.

Totally agree with you @vvs!!!

Reducing LLP by such a huge margin in the current environment makes absolutely no sense! The accountants must be graduates of Utalii college!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
hisah
#8 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:08:29 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
I respect what Sunil Sanger says. He seems independent of the PR analysts who tweet for ads and dinner invitations.

The reduction in (UNAUDITED) Loan Loss Provisions is HUGE in an environment that has interest rates increasing and 'money' tightening as CBK reins in liquidity.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Comedy central in the kitchen.

But I'm looking at the monthly chart and this thing is forming a hammer candlestick! TA fans like that candlestick for it confirms a bullish bias.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mainat
#9 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:13:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
All that matters is PR, until nbk falls over
Sehemu ndio nyumba
xxxxx
#10 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:20:30 PM
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Posts: 503
Mainat wrote:
All that matters is PR, until nbk falls over


Hehehe, Good to make some money in the process
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:27:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I respect what Sunil Sanger says. He seems independent of the PR analysts who tweet for ads and dinner invitations.

The reduction in (UNAUDITED) Loan Loss Provisions is HUGE in an environment that has interest rates increasing and 'money' tightening as CBK reins in liquidity.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Comedy central in the kitchen.

But I'm looking at the monthly chart and this thing is forming a hammer candlestick! TA fans like that candlestick for it confirms a bullish bias.
For the serious investor [investing more than a few KES] does the candlestick work?

1) Low level of float
2) Preference Shares - There is a dividend due - or so I think - when a dividend is paid to Ordinary Shareholders. This reduces the PAT Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders.
3) The LLP is 1% of their Loan Book. That means NBK is telling us they have negligible SPECIFIC provisions. If banks like DTB and I&M [with very tight lending to a small customer base] OR banks like SCBK & BBK [low NPLs, tight lending standards] have specific provisions then is NBK a superstar? I think not.
4) UNAUDITED. The auditor will have to look at the NPL and LLP. I doubt they will sign off on 1% LLP.

Anyway, I will stay away from NBK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:29:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I respect what Sunil Sanger says. He seems independent of the PR analysts who tweet for ads and dinner invitations.

The reduction in (UNAUDITED) Loan Loss Provisions is HUGE in an environment that has interest rates increasing and 'money' tightening as CBK reins in liquidity.

Totally agree with you @vvs!!!

Reducing LLP by such a huge margin in the current environment makes absolutely no sense! The accountants must be graduates of Utalii college!!!

Do not blame the accountants when the Management & Board make the final call. The accountants and auditors are probably banging their heads against the wall.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#13 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:50:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
'The Dar Skendo Brigade' Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

The Income Statement is clear that loan loss provisions increased from 125 to 330M. The rest is secured.

That RMB 'monopoly' will ring up the FX income. Stay tuned...

NPLs are best assessed at FY. That I agree. There must have been a recovery of circa 1B @vvs. Look at the 'other income'.

MaichBlack
#14 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 2:28:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I respect what Sunil Sanger says. He seems independent of the PR analysts who tweet for ads and dinner invitations.

The reduction in (UNAUDITED) Loan Loss Provisions is HUGE in an environment that has interest rates increasing and 'money' tightening as CBK reins in liquidity.

Totally agree with you @vvs!!!

Reducing LLP by such a huge margin in the current environment makes absolutely no sense! The accountants must be graduates of Utalii college!!!

Do not blame the accountants when the Management & Board make the final call. The accountants and auditors are probably banging their heads against the wall.

True dat!!!

Pain of being an employee. Play ball or ship out!! And then one day you are looking for a job in a serious organisation and your (forced) past comes back to haunt you!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
instinct
#15 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 4:03:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Are we reading the same results with Sunil? The 123% increase in PAT is largely driven by 1.4billion increase in total income while total expenses remained at last year's level. There is no reduction in loan loss provision. infact they have provided for 332m from last years 125m.

Excellent results to me...
Othelo
#16 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 4:09:14 PM
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Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Where are the notes...... maybe that can help to understand whether this is a one off item!!!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
murchr
#17 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 4:34:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
'The Dar Skendo Brigade' Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

The Income Statement is clear that loan loss provisions increased from 125 to 330M. The rest is secured.

That RMB 'monopoly' will ring up the FX income. Stay tuned...

NPLs are best assessed at FY. That I agree. There must have been a recovery of circa 1B @vvs. Look at the 'other income'.



That's the big one.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
xxxxx
#18 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 4:35:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 503
instinct wrote:
Are we reading the same results with Sunil? The 123% increase in PAT is largely driven by 1.4billion increase in total income while total expenses remained at last year's level. There is no reduction in loan loss provision. infact they have provided for 332m from last years 125m.

Excellent results to me...


HeheheLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Look at the Loan loss provision (1d) under section III: other disclosures and you will see that the LLP in June 2014 was 1.9BN whereas it is 0.7BN.

Still, there is nothing wrong with the results.

The idea of provisions is to provide for eventualities ..and if the circumstances change, they have to be written back.
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 5:26:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@Monomotapa
Other Income can also include profits from the sale of properties. The PPE has reduced by 800mn. Extraordinary (or one-time) gain. Compare the reduction in PPE vs the Other Income.

The cashflow statement also references sale of a property. Where would this income show up?

@xxxxx
The Other Income is up. The LLP is down from 1.9bn to 0.7bn.
General Provisions (per CBK guidelines) are 1% of the Loans. The loans are about 71bn. The LLP is 729mn.
So is NBK's book that good that Specific Provisions are only 19mn? That means they are doing better than DTB in this department.

Sunil also mentioned in another tweet that the LLP:NPL ratio for NBK at 11% (32% Coop, 41% I&M, 49% KCB, 53% Equity, 63% BBK, 92% DTB) is the lowest among listed banks.

Anyway, we can revisit this for FY 2015.
This is like KQ for me. I watch it but I am not invested in it.

I used to be a KQ defender - cognitive dissonance . Someone [not sure if it was @Njunge or @kausha] used to post a 'deeper' analysis. And s/he was right. So when folks question financial 'magic' I pay attention.

On this matter, I believe Sunil [who I follow on Twitter] who has made some good calls. Plus he provides data with his analysis.

Warren Buffett: "When the tide goes out, we shall know who was swimming naked"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Angelica _ann
#20 Posted : Tuesday, July 28, 2015 11:19:09 PM
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Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
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