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Equity vs TPS vs UAP
tom_boy
#1 Posted : Saturday, September 13, 2014 3:37:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
I am torn between buying one of the three above with a goal of maximum capital gains in the next 3 yrs. Can you advise on the best of the three?
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
tom_boy
#2 Posted : Saturday, September 13, 2014 5:49:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
My back of the envelope calculations go something like this

Equity:
Currently at a high P/E. However with the MVNO strategy, they stand a chance to increase profits in the medium term but lets face it, this will be no walk in the Park. They must come up with better value proposition than just lower price. This will be a challenge.

TPS: Currently undervalued on a P/B basis. Facing major challenges in the interim but the whole tourism industry seems to show much promise. This I deduce from the number of new hotels coming up. Is well run and diversified source of revenues throught East Africa.

UAP: With the expected listing (I dont know when), the price may appreciate post listing. Is also well run, making consistent profits and diversified regionally.

So, the dilemma is which of the three offers the greatest capital gains in 3 years time.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
muganda
#3 Posted : Saturday, September 13, 2014 6:55:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
The problem with an investor, or trader for that matter, is the enemy within. So a noble purchase of undervalued TPSEA will see one thrust on the rocks of uncertainty at government pace of execution; even as other counters gain 15% annually. Can you handle the strain?

And why UAP, a hope purchase, as compared to Centum's visible price gains (even with the optimistic real estate & PE self-revaluations)? Centum owns unlisted UAP 13% plus AON 21%.

So that leaves us with Equity. A one-off gain from sale of HFCK and fastest growing loan book of all banks at 24% pa. A momentum stock, favorable with foreigners. Yet, all that goes up must come down, so you must accumulate wisely. P/E of 13

Verdict: If you strictly will forget about your buy for 3yrs - Centum. Otherwise for quick affirmation on price dips - Equity
jerry
#4 Posted : Saturday, September 13, 2014 9:34:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@muganda. You have comfirmed by recent advice where I recommended Centum to some1 who was finding Equity lovely!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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