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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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No less than 3 threads started by HELLOs on what stocks to buy. Wazuans if you have made money in the last 2 years, its time to sell. Sell your stock holdings, put the money in property or cash. 2015 will be a bad year for stocks. Let those who have ears hear. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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You are applying too much of theory in your reasoning... As long as the economy continues to grow above 5% and EPS growth remain double digits stocks will always be a buy! This frontier market still has the potential to go up for the next 10 years non stop as we transition to a middle income emerging economy! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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guru267 wrote:You are applying too much of theory in your reasoning...
As long as the economy continues to grow above 5% and EPS growth remain double digits stocks will always be a buy!
This frontier market still has the potential to go up for the next 10 years non stop as we transition to a middle income emerging economy! @Guru i would expect you to know better. Mr Market does not respect growth and ambitions. Mr Market gives you a good price you buy, Mr Market gives you a good profit you sell. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Hello Joined: 5/21/2012 Posts: 4
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I have that feeling too about stocks this year, am not as excited as i was last year a time like this. Its time to invest more in bonds. I think stocks are relatively over valued. However, Coop bank is a good buy. But again i could be wrong
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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kigophilipe wrote:I have that feeling too about stocks this year, am not as excited as i was last year a time like this. Its time to invest more in bonds. I think stocks are relatively over valued. However, Coop bank is a good buy. But again i could be wrong You are definitely right @Kigo Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/17/2013 Posts: 80 Location: Juja
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Overall the index might under-perform, but there is definitely the undervalued stocks and there will definitely be upswings in stocks to profit from. On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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sparkly wrote:No less than 3 threads started by HELLOs on what stocks to buy.
Wazuans if you have made money in the last 2 years, its time to sell.
Sell your stock holdings, put the money in property or cash.
2015 will be a bad year for stocks. Let those who have ears hear.
Your post exemplifies arrogance by the more experienced folk towards the upcoming investors whatever the age; what is wrong with a few new investors coming to learn from seasoned members in wazua like you? Is there evidence between a rush in new comers into wazua and a downward spiral of stock? Isn't this a forum to learn from each other and not castigate whether directly or indirectly the newer folk? offer meaningful in a more gentle way or remain silent;period!! What if your children nursery school teacher mocked them day 1 of school as they cried when you left them....
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2010 Posts: 126
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mibbz wrote:sparkly wrote:No less than 3 threads started by HELLOs on what stocks to buy.
Wazuans if you have made money in the last 2 years, its time to sell.
Sell your stock holdings, put the money in property or cash.
2015 will be a bad year for stocks. Let those who have ears hear.
Your post exemplifies arrogance by the more experienced folk towards the upcoming investors whatever the age; what is wrong with a few new investors coming to learn from seasoned members in wazua like you? Is there evidence between a rush in new comers into wazua and a downward spiral of stock? Isn't this a forum to learn from each other and not castigate whether directly or indirectly the newer folk? offer meaningful in a more gentle way or remain silent;period!! What if your children nursery school teacher mocked them day 1 of school as they cried when you left them....  "The trouble with not having a goal is that you can spend your life running up and down the field and never score". - Bill Copeland
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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So, guys here at wazua think they can prophesy what the stock market will or won't do. Uhhh? Experts or not, gurus or not, masters or not, you will be SUPER SHOCKED. Remember the pre-election (March 4th) prophesis that were almost general consensus here. Hii soko haina utaalamu. You will be shocked when BAT trades at 800 with those Weird valuation. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Be greedy when everyone else is fearful and fearful when everyone else is greedy??!?!
Makes sense. But it is a catch 22. I reckon the valuations are still there for some companies. But it is a matter of personal prejudice to decide whether to exit or not. I'm still in it.
Best wishes, Happy New Year.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,532 Location: nairobi
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I only know one thing. Do not listen to guru254 in 2014. Do your own research, read books such as those by Ben Graham, Philip Fisher, Peter Lynch.. All you hello's will do just fine. Some may loose alot, but thats part of investing!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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We are on a 2 year bull run...the new guy doesnt know what a bear run is...so if I told you...a stock can give you ulcers or a stock can tank 70% you wont believe me...valuations are crazy right now...the market is trading on a trailling PE of +15 a 4 year high...meanwhile the economy is struggling to grow at 5%...
Its crazy to think the market can mantain this level of irrationality but it can but once the madness fades oh boy this market will tank...
But for sure the market tops when the consesus says "it can't go down"...I have seen this before.
So my advice is play it safe....dont buy for the sake of buying...keep cash until you spot some value...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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@ the deal....growing the economy at 5% wouldn't really be called a "struggling economy" by any metrics
nonetheless, some good tips there
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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murchr wrote:Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying What theory?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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@deal, the same was said between 2012-2013, i stocked dollars (10K to be precise) only for the market to think otherwise. What am saying is that, LET THE MARKET DO WHATEVER IT WANT. I can't control it, neither can you! TUKO TAYARI Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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symbols wrote:murchr wrote:Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying What theory? You had some long explanation on the behavior of wanjiku and the NSE but cant dig it. Anyway..@hisah uses it alot in his posts here's an example. Aguytrying wrote:I have now seen the signs of the bull and its slaughter. If you looked at the NSE today you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at 2010. The casual investors are gaining confidence in the market day by day. They know how much safcom is trading at. wait for the headlines when it reaches 10.00.
For other investors, this should really be a time of fear, fear of extreme over valuation. do you sell, do you hold? you certainly cant buy over valued counters? or can you? choice is yours.
It will be a time of great joy until its not. the oil finds complicate issues, the bull may last a long long time and if the market start rallying like crazy every year, who will want to be left of stocks?
That's why i say its a time to be fearful. Fortunately, there are some counters that for one reason or another have not joined the fair valuation bandwagon or are "only" fairly valued ( we can now afford to be ok with fairly valued) so that gives some respite for now. Then hisah responded hisah wrote:Still a distance away from the euphoria of 2005 - 2006 when crap was floating higher than solid counters and the avg market PER has not yet vaulted above 15 heading towards 20. Still a lot of plots and houses for sale threads as real estate fights with equities... Wanjiku will be back and it'll be obvious on the investor section threads... Post 4314 "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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dunkang wrote:@deal, the same was said between 2012-2013, i stocked dollars (10K to be precise) only for the market to think otherwise.
What am saying is that, LET THE MARKET DO WHATEVER IT WANT. I can't control it, neither can you! TUKO TAYARI Dunkang when its comes to the so called "economic cycles" its better to look at the global trends rather than look at the local market in isolation. In 2012 the US economic was in doldrums. Then in Sept 2012 the Federal Reserve came up with an economic stimulus dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE), a fancy term for pumping cash money to the tune of $85B into the economy. Guess where the extra cash went to? To financial markets, instead of the productive sectors of the economy... surprise, surprise! As a result in 2013 the US stock markets climbed by 29.6% (S&P) and 38% (NASDAQ) the biggest rise since late 90s. A good chunk of the money went into foreign markets notably the beaten up economies of Europe and Frontier markets of Asia and Africa. Consequently Greece, Iceland and Ireland were on the list of top 10 performing Exchanges as were Pakistan, Nigeria and Zambia. The Fed is gradually reducing the amount of money pumped monthly into the US economy, ending the programme altogether in Dec 2014! The party is about over. The big boys have eaten the choice cuts. In 2014 the scavengers will be picking the bones and skins and in 2015 Wanjiku will be cleaning the mess. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:dunkang wrote:@deal, the same was said between 2012-2013, i stocked dollars (10K to be precise) only for the market to think otherwise.
What am saying is that, LET THE MARKET DO WHATEVER IT WANT. I can't control it, neither can you! TUKO TAYARI Dunkang when its comes to the so called "economic cycles" its better to look at the global trends rather than look at the local market in isolation. In 2012 the US economic was in doldrums. Then in Sept 2012 the Federal Reserve came up with an economic stimulus dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE), a fancy term for pumping cash money to the tune of $85B into the economy. Guess where the extra cash went to? To financial markets, instead of the productive sectors of the economy... surprise, surprise! As a result in 2013 the US stock markets climbed by 29.6% (S&P) and 38% (NASDAQ) the biggest rise since late 90s. A good chunk of the money went into foreign markets notably the beaten up economies of Europe and Frontier markets of Asia and Africa. Consequently Greece, Iceland and Ireland were on the list of top 10 performing Exchanges as were Pakistan, Nigeria and Zambia. The Fed is gradually reducing the amount of money pumped monthly into the US economy, ending the programme altogether in Dec 2014! The party is about over. The big boys have eaten the choice cuts. In 2014 the scavengers will be picking the bones and skins and in 2015 Wanjiku will be cleaning the mess. Like I said before... There is too much theory applied! Will the fed tapering stop Kenya from becoming a middle income country in 10 years?? Haya mambo of entering and exiting the market because of short term issues will lead one to be poorer than the average investor! Just Ask Buffet who is buying more today than he has ever bought... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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murchr wrote:symbols wrote:murchr wrote:Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying What theory? You had some long explanation on the behavior of wanjiku and the NSE but cant dig it. Anyway..@hisah uses it alot in his posts here's an example. Aguytrying wrote:I have now seen the signs of the bull and its slaughter. If you looked at the NSE today you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at 2010. The casual investors are gaining confidence in the market day by day. They know how much safcom is trading at. wait for the headlines when it reaches 10.00.
For other investors, this should really be a time of fear, fear of extreme over valuation. do you sell, do you hold? you certainly cant buy over valued counters? or can you? choice is yours.
It will be a time of great joy until its not. the oil finds complicate issues, the bull may last a long long time and if the market start rallying like crazy every year, who will want to be left of stocks?
That's why i say its a time to be fearful. Fortunately, there are some counters that for one reason or another have not joined the fair valuation bandwagon or are "only" fairly valued ( we can now afford to be ok with fairly valued) so that gives some respite for now. Then hisah responded hisah wrote:Still a distance away from the euphoria of 2005 - 2006 when crap was floating higher than solid counters and the avg market PER has not yet vaulted above 15 heading towards 20. Still a lot of plots and houses for sale threads as real estate fights with equities... Wanjiku will be back and it'll be obvious on the investor section threads... Post 4314 Well I won't deny it though it might not necessarily apply to Hellos.Though,I still firmly believe Scom IPO killed the confidence for many new entrants and last year restored it for some.
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