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Manipulation Insider Trading in International Derivatives
mchambuzi
#1 Posted : Sunday, December 22, 2013 1:07:02 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Manipulation Insider Trading in International Derivatives

Quoted from WSJ
"Forex investigation finds evidence of collusion. The global probe into forex manipulation has reportedly discovered electronic chat-room messages in which traders from different banks swapped information about client orders and agreed to make transactions in a particular sequence so that they could maximize their profits. This is apparently the first time that investigators have found evidence of collusion. Major banks have suspended traders as part of the probe, including UBS (UBS), Barclays (BCS), JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C)."

Here is my take:
These were just the discoveries made on manual trading by bank trades alone. In an age where there are super algos(computer algorithms) that actively look for headlines and news even on twitter and execute trades in milliseconds, definitely there has to be some that talk to one another in sophisticated computer languages which was exactly the same conclusion the Nanex founder came to.

I plotted the 99% return probability level in some formula, BIS % recommended to institutions for models, in the gold charts and it maps out the exact turning points in the market which goes to show that these big institutions use algos that sync trading strategies in terms of entries and exits. Similar results came out in the eurusd and S&P futures charts.

Aside for the statistical technicalities. Before the FOMC, a number of banks were buying the dollar in the morning hours(Part of why I bought usdchf prior), particularly one big UK bank.

Those who trade orderflows must have observed that a number of times they take positions before major data releases and it often comes out in sync with their expectations. I once had some GBP data two days in advance, it had leaked out from a certain bank. which shows how porous their releases are.

In my five year experience, in almost all major FOMC announcements, markets usually start reacting about 2hrs ahead of time and in 10 minutes in other scheduled releases on most circumstances you can usually almost tell how the data will be. Investigations have been launched countless times after data releases, but nothing is ever done about it (Popular in NFPs that have surprise outcomes). This has been making it difficult for fundamental information traders where they enter trades based on outcomes of news when the big players are exiting positions minutes after. The most effective way in reading into what these big players are doing has been price action but now seems they are getting good at creating fakeys to lure in traders especially intra-day traders like me.
Problem has been proof and I hope the recent advancements in tracking insider tracking will help level the playing field.

Our markets will eventually evolve into this level of complexity with more participants and launch of derivative markets with international participants and we will have the same problems. I hope CMA will better firmly deal with this.

What strategies have you been using to beat these markets and which derivatives are you profitably trading? The institutional traders are working together, Malaysian traders research together in forums and that is why most of them are successful, Lets do this too, share on this thread.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Drobos fly
#2 Posted : Sunday, December 22, 2013 8:42:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/24/2012
Posts: 331
Location: Vantage point
I sensed this in the NSE and cleared out my account over an year ago and re-invested elsewhere where I have reaped better gains. I Knew something was amiss with this fully automated system. My projected analysis graphs just didn't make sense anymore. That's why I bailed
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