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Safaricom at 10 Bob ?
young
#1 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 9:29:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Yes it will be there soon.

This will only be sustained if it returns an impressive
H1 result later this Nov.
Impressive if PAT is greater than 30%.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
hisah
#2 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 11:19:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
10/- will likely be tested tomorrow. But maintaining that level will need impressive PBT as well as a div pay hike to 40cts or more as well as rosy mgmt guideline outlook esp on cashflow.

My PBT expectation is 15 - 20% growth (H1 10% and H2 20%) as well as EPS for full year. For H1 I'll be scanning revenues and mpesa growth plus its spinned product mshwari. Mbenki by kcb will be captured in H2. Btw H2 is usually stronger than H1.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#3 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 11:29:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
When are these results going to be out?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
young
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 1:29:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
hisah wrote:
10/- will likely be tested tomorrow. But maintaining that level will need impressive PBT as well as a div pay hike to 40cts or more as well as rosy mgmt guideline outlook esp on cashflow.

My PBT expectation is 15 - 20% growth (H1 10% and H2 20%) as well as EPS for full year. For H1 I'll be scanning revenues and mpesa growth plus its spinned product mshwari. Mbenki by kcb will be captured in H2. Btw H2 is usually stronger than H1.

I know you are a witty guy @hisah but you
will get it wrong when the results are out.
Safaricom is now a super brand, the most
highly capitalized stock with much leg room
for growth, the toast of foreigners. While
locals are selling foreigners including my tiny
self are taking positions for long term benefits.
You will see Mpesa at 10 this year, 15 in
2014 and even more growth a few years after.
It is a counter you can buy and go to sleep
at least in the next 3 years whether in terms of
income for long termers or capital gain for
speculators.
My advise to speculators is do not
jump ship fast, realise the full potentials
before taking profits, a bountiful one.
It will be interesting within 2 years to go
from say 5 bob in early 2013 to 15 bob in
late 2014 than to jump now from 5 to 9.7
You guys are always in a hurry to take
profits , the typical wananchi way to jump
to another counter.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
hisah
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 7:37:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
When are these results going to be out?

Today, but no time indicated on their site. Maybe afternoon after market close.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 7:53:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
young wrote:
hisah wrote:
10/- will likely be tested tomorrow. But maintaining that level will need impressive PBT as well as a div pay hike to 40cts or more as well as rosy mgmt guideline outlook esp on cashflow.

My PBT expectation is 15 - 20% growth (H1 10% and H2 20%) as well as EPS for full year. For H1 I'll be scanning revenues and mpesa growth plus its spinned product mshwari. Mbenki by kcb will be captured in H2. Btw H2 is usually stronger than H1.

I know you are a witty guy @hisah but you
will get it wrong when the results are out.
Safaricom is now a super brand, the most
highly capitalized stock with much leg room
for growth, the toast of foreigners. While
locals are selling foreigners including my tiny
self are taking positions for long term benefits.
You will see Mpesa at 10 this year, 15 in
2014 and even more growth a few years after.
It is a counter you can buy and go to sleep
at least in the next 3 years whether in terms of
income for long termers or capital gain for
speculators.
My advise to speculators is do not
jump ship fast, realise the full potentials
before taking profits, a bountiful one.
It will be interesting within 2 years to go
from say 5 bob in early 2013 to 15 bob in
late 2014 than to jump now from 5 to 9.7
You guys are always in a hurry to take
profits , the typical wananchi way to jump
to another counter.

I'm a trader. I've actually remained in this counter longer than expected as price targets got smashed fast. But I'll be alighting the bus after H2 results. Only CFC do I intended to hold longer. The laggards are my next play i.e. KK, KQ & KPLC. MSC is too risky. Their correction is coming in the next rotation.

HFCK is indeed looking cheap.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mie
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 11:17:33 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 10/10/2013
Posts: 5
Results will be released today; at 4pm. Streamed live from Michael Joseph centre. Tomorrow for sure the double digit barrier will be tested for the first time.
young
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 4:37:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
hisah wrote:
young wrote:
hisah wrote:
10/- will likely be tested tomorrow. But maintaining that level will need impressive PBT as well as a div pay hike to 40cts or more as well as rosy mgmt guideline outlook esp on cashflow.

My PBT expectation is 15 - 20% growth (H1 10% and H2 20%) as well as EPS for full year. For H1 I'll be scanning revenues and mpesa growth plus its spinned product mshwari. Mbenki by kcb will be captured in H2. Btw H2 is usually stronger than H1.

I know you are a witty guy @hisah but you
will get it wrong when the results are out.
Safaricom is now a super brand, the most
highly capitalized stock with much leg room
for growth, the toast of foreigners. While
locals are selling foreigners including my tiny
self are taking positions for long term benefits.
You will see Mpesa at 10 this year, 15 in
2014 and even more growth a few years after.
It is a counter you can buy and go to sleep
at least in the next 3 years whether in terms of
income for long termers or capital gain for
speculators.
My advise to speculators is do not
jump ship fast, realise the full potentials
before taking profits, a bountiful one.
It will be interesting within 2 years to go
from say 5 bob in early 2013 to 15 bob in
late 2014 than to jump now from 5 to 9.7
You guys are always in a hurry to take
profits , the typical wananchi way to jump
to another counter.

I'm a trader. I've actually remained in this counter longer than expected as price targets got smashed fast. But I'll be alighting the bus after H2 results. Only CFC do I intended to hold longer. The laggards are my next play i.e. KK, KQ & KPLC. MSC is too risky. Their correction is coming in the next rotation.

HFCK is indeed looking cheap.



Hope you are convinced dear @hisah that the result is above 30% PAT that I predicted NOT your 10%?
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#9 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 4:43:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
hisah wrote:
10/- will likely be tested tomorrow. But maintaining that level will need impressive PBT as well as a div pay hike to 40cts or more as well as rosy mgmt guideline outlook esp on cashflow.

My PBT expectation is 15 - 20% growth (H1 10% and H2 20%) as well as EPS for full year. For H1 I'll be scanning revenues and mpesa growth plus its spinned product mshwari. Mbenki by kcb will be captured in H2. Btw H2 is usually stronger than H1.



Nobody is perfect in this game, myself also.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
hisah
#10 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 5:02:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
young wrote:
hisah wrote:
10/- will likely be tested tomorrow. But maintaining that level will need impressive PBT as well as a div pay hike to 40cts or more as well as rosy mgmt guideline outlook esp on cashflow.

My PBT expectation is 15 - 20% growth (H1 10% and H2 20%) as well as EPS for full year. For H1 I'll be scanning revenues and mpesa growth plus its spinned product mshwari. Mbenki by kcb will be captured in H2. Btw H2 is usually stronger than H1.



Nobody is perfect in this game, myself also.

Yes I've seen the PAT and EPS strong growth which far more than I expected. Applause

Definitely H2 will be stronger if H1 is this strong.

Div pay hike is also assured with that cashflow spike and this should keep the bid pressure on the price past 10.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
young
#11 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 5:07:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Ok thanks dear @hisah, you are one of the most
intelligent level headed guys in this forum.

I really respect you for that and I love to read your analysis
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
muganda
#12 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 5:08:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
According to Aly-Khan Satchu
@SafaricomLtd aims at 12.00 in my opinion H1 2013 Earnings here http://www.rich.co.ke/me...h%20September%202013.pdf
muganda
#13 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 5:26:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Oh one last thing @young @hisah, you remember our discussion below, considering most foreign large players expected these results, it will be interesting to watch their reaction in the coming days...

hisah wrote:
#10
muganda wrote:
Actually @hisah SBG Securities/Stanbic estimates Safaricom 1H14 EPS up +63% y/y or +2% h/h, driven by 17% y/y revenue growth to KSh68bn with an EBITDA margin of 40%.

Note however they are of the view rating is unjustified as even a P/E of 16.2 is a 25% premium over peer group - MTN, Vodacom etc. Hence their recommnedation - SELL - target price 8.00 DCF

The direction of the share on announcement will depend, as always, on dear foreigners.


SBG & HSBC saying the same script. Perfect.

Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#14 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 5:35:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Tonite,i will be watching the movie.......Fools rush in.......
@SufficientlyP
iller
#15 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 6:01:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/25/2013
Posts: 552
Location: Asgard
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Tonite,i will be watching the movie.......Fools rush in.......

smile i saw what you did right there
hisah
#16 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 6:03:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
muganda wrote:
Oh one last thing @young @hisah, you remember our discussion below, considering most foreign large players expected these results, it will be interesting to watch their reaction in the coming days...

hisah wrote:
#10
muganda wrote:
Actually @hisah SBG Securities/Stanbic estimates Safaricom 1H14 EPS up +63% y/y or +2% h/h, driven by 17% y/y revenue growth to KSh68bn with an EBITDA margin of 40%.

Note however they are of the view rating is unjustified as even a P/E of 16.2 is a 25% premium over peer group - MTN, Vodacom etc. Hence their recommnedation - SELL - target price 8.00 DCF

The direction of the share on announcement will depend, as always, on dear foreigners.


SBG & HSBC saying the same script. Perfect.



Too many buy recos = ?
Too many sell recos = ?

Mr Market likes the opposing path many a times...

Btw I've never seen SBG rate mpesa bank as a buy. Always on the sell side while the price zoomed from 3 - the current level. Selling a 221% rally. If they were shorting they'd be on a margin call with a properly fried account.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Realtreaty
#17 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 8:13:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,300
Actually Safcom will and should be stabilising @ betwn 12 -14 Ksh never under 10
It has already gone into puberty stage with changes allover!
Siringi
#18 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 9:55:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/8/2013
Posts: 2,517
So at today's market capitalization, means you sell MPesa Bank you get enough cheddar to run GoK for six months no?smile smile smile
na bado kuitisha goodwillApplause
"😖😡KQ makes money for everyone except the shareholder 😏😏 " overheard in Wazua
murchr
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 10:50:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Its in threads like this that I would like to see @obiero's comment?? Pole bro, I just had to am sure it sucks thinking about how much you'd have made had you not jumped ship.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
harrydre
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 11:38:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
great news...smile smile
i.am.back!!!!
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