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Banking Sector Valuation and Recommendation - Year 2013

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mwekez@ji		#1 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 12:16:49 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		Bank \| Share price \| Fair value \| Return \| Rating CFC \| 62.50 \| 95.05 \| +52.1% \| BUY NIC \| 56.50 \| 67.73 \| +19.9% \| BUY StanChart \| 300.00 \| 243.39 \| -18.9% \| SELL Barclays \| 17.95 \| 15.05 \| -16.2% \| SELL KCB \| 41.50 \| 47.00 \| +13.3% \| HOLD Equity \| 36.00 \| 39.29 \| +9.1% \| HOLD Co-op Bank \| 16.70 \| 18.00 \| +7.8% \| HOLD DTB \| 166.00 \| 166.89 \| +0.5% \| HOLD I&M Holdings \| Fair Price \| 111.87 ;-) BUY Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013
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wilyum		#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 12:24:25 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/21/2011 Posts: 1,010		mwekez@ji wrote: Bank \| Share price \| Fair value \| Return \| Rating CFC \| 62.50 \| 95.05 \| +52.1% \| BUY NIC \| 56.50 \| 67.73 \| +19.9% \| BUY StanChart \| 300.00 \| 243.39 \| -18.9% \| SELL Barclays \| 17.95 \| 15.05 \| -16.2% \| SELL KCB \| 41.50 \| 47.00 \| +13.3% \| HOLD Equity \| 36.00 \| 39.29 \| +9.1% \| HOLD Co-op Bank \| 16.70 \| 18.00 \| +7.8% \| HOLD DTB \| 166.00 \| 166.89 \| +0.5% \| HOLD I&M Holdings \| Fair Price \| 111.87 ;-) BUY Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 good pick there, compared to this from Mr STOCKMASTER CFC Stanbic Q1 EPS at Ksh 2.56...thats abt 78% growth for Q1 2013. My new target price is Ksh 100 by April 2014. Happy hunting
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mwekez@ji		#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 12:28:26 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		wilyum wrote: mwekez@ji wrote: Bank \| Share price \| Fair value \| Return \| Rating CFC \| 62.50 \| 95.05 \| +52.1% \| BUY NIC \| 56.50 \| 67.73 \| +19.9% \| BUY StanChart \| 300.00 \| 243.39 \| -18.9% \| SELL Barclays \| 17.95 \| 15.05 \| -16.2% \| SELL KCB \| 41.50 \| 47.00 \| +13.3% \| HOLD Equity \| 36.00 \| 39.29 \| +9.1% \| HOLD Co-op Bank \| 16.70 \| 18.00 \| +7.8% \| HOLD DTB \| 166.00 \| 166.89 \| +0.5% \| HOLD I&M Holdings \| Fair Price \| 111.87 ;-) BUY Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 good pick there, compared to this from Mr STOCKMASTER CFC Stanbic Q1 EPS at Ksh 2.56...thats abt 78% growth for Q1 2013. My new target price is Ksh 100 by April 2014. Happy hunting that top pick put a smile on my face and am sure on a number of other faces ... cc @the deal, @hisah, @stocksmaster, et al ...
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mwanahisa		#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 12:34:39 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438		CFC Stanbic all the way for me (of course together with my sizeable stake in Housing Finance). I am betting the house on those two among the banks.
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mwekez@ji		#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 12:54:09 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		mwanahisa wrote: CFC Stanbic all the way for me (of course together with my sizeable stake in Housing Finance). I am betting the house on those two among the banks. I fail to understand why SIB has always avoided rating HFCK and NBK. .... HFCK is definitely a BUY
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mkonomtupu		#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 1:19:39 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road		How come no one cheers for NIC from 23 to 57 in a year? The returns I have gained from this share beats any other investment in the last 6 years
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dunkang		#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 1:23:09 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,824 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831		mwekez@ji wrote: Bank \| Share price \| Fair value \| Return \| Rating CFC \| 62.50 \| 95.05 \| +52.1% \| BUY NIC \| 56.50 \| 67.73 \| +19.9% \| BUY StanChart \| 300.00 \| 243.39 \| -18.9% \| SELL Barclays \| 17.95 \| 15.05 \| -16.2% \| SELL KCB \| 41.50 \| 47.00 \| +13.3% \| HOLD Equity \| 36.00 \| 39.29 \| +9.1% \| HOLD Co-op Bank \| 16.70 \| 18.00 \| +7.8% \| HOLD DTB \| 166.00 \| 166.89 \| +0.5% \| HOLD I&M Holdings \| Fair Price \| 111.87 ;-) BUY Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC Stanbic is still cheap at 95/-. For me 135/- should be the price by Dec 2013. My valuation formulae is crude but has worked severally. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Mastermind		#8 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 2:59:18 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley		mwekez@ji wrote: Bank \| Share price \| Fair value \| Return \| Rating CFC \| 62.50 \| 95.05 \| +52.1% \| BUY NIC \| 56.50 \| 67.73 \| +19.9% \| BUY StanChart \| 300.00 \| 243.39 \| -18.9% \| SELL Barclays \| 17.95 \| 15.05 \| -16.2% \| SELL KCB \| 41.50 \| 47.00 \| +13.3% \| HOLD Equity \| 36.00 \| 39.29 \| +9.1% \| HOLD Co-op Bank \| 16.70 \| 18.00 \| +7.8% \| HOLD DTB \| 166.00 \| 166.89 \| +0.5% \| HOLD I&M Holdings \| Fair Price \| 111.87 ;-) BUY Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 Why did they leave NBK, HFCK? Co op, Cfc, and Nic will do better than they have projected. If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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selah		#9 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 3:01:40 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya		mwekez@ji wrote: mwanahisa wrote: CFC Stanbic all the way for me (of course together with my sizeable stake in Housing Finance). I am betting the house on those two among the banks. I fail to understand why SIB has always avoided rating HFCK and NBK. .... HFCK is definitely a BUY These two companies are tricky I would really like to see someone value them.I think the reason why it is rare to see analyst valuing these two are. 1.The ownership structure of NBK esp those preference shares always need a sober mind to get the true value of the company. 2.HFCK as a mortgage company requires a different valuation format.you cant put it in the same level with banks. 3.May be many people like me are lazy they dont want to go deeper and understand the companies. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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the deal		#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 3:29:47 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		Analysts always follow specific stocks/companies in an industry...in the banking sector I follow the following stocks keenly HF, CFC, Equity, KCB, Stan Chart & BBK. I dont follow NBK at all. I dont follow Coop, NIC & DTB that much. FV for HF is around Sh35. Upside from Sh26 is around 35%...total return of 40% if you factor in a DY of 5.3%. Any investment reflecting a potential return of 40% is a strong BUY in my view. Overall the outlook for HF has improved with the current easing cycle being the key protagonist...but potholes ahead remain...the potholes are a story for another day On the SIB report...its not best but they tried.. still room for improvement
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