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UNGA anyone?
mukiha
#1 Posted : Monday, May 11, 2009 5:56:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
I haven't had a look at the Ugali company for a looooong time. Then i happened on their June 2008 report at the reception of a clients office while waiting for an appointment.

A quick scan revealed strong EPS growth and healthy NAV.

Who's is in this stock and what they think?

At face value,Unga looks like a sure bet....they make staple food for heaven's sake......
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Kusadikika
#2 Posted : Monday, May 11, 2009 8:13:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,703
Mukiha,

I have had my eyes on this one for some time now. The reason for lack of interest in the stock are:

The company that is traded on the stock exchange is UNGA LIMITED,the company that makes Jogoo,EXE and all other Unga products is UNGA HOLDINGS. ( I may have mixed the names up,but the company in which you can buy shares owns only 65% of the company that makes the actual products). The other 35% is owned by Seaboard corporation who also have a right to increase their stake in the company to 50%. Seaboard corporation also manages the company for which they are paid a management fee that is dollar denominated. There is a minimum charge for management but there is no maximum. Several years ago Unga was on its death bed and when Seaboard came along they basically revived it by injecting a lot of their own money. If you look at the books you will discover that Seaboard is actually Unga's largest creditor and if they were to convert this debt into equity they would almost own the whole company.
This not withstanding with more than 9 billion shillings in revenue and as you correctly mentioned it is hard to ignore company that makes staple food. The total number of paid up shares in the publicly traded company are slightly over 70 million. Last year even after Seaboard had taken its fees and accounted for their share of the final profits as minority interests the earnings per share were more than 3 shillings. At 8 shillings my interest in the stock is not so much capital appreciation for now but I feel that in another year or so this company can afford to pay 1 or 2 shillings as dividends at the least. At 2 shillings this would be less than 150 million shillings for a company with revenue of 9 billion. This would however be to an investor 25% return on investment at the current price !!!! Not bad. Then after that you just hold the stock and like a BAT shareholder never worry about the share price and just wait for the dividend cheque year in year out till people stop eating Ugali.

Weusi wa nywele za mshtakiwa zaonyesha ujinga alio nao
Ruchwarsteve
#3 Posted : Monday, May 11, 2009 8:24:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/8/2009
Posts: 34
This is a stock worthy paying attention to if you trust that third party from a distant country. I chose to trust them and have been solidifying my position as from last year. Best of luck!

RUCHWARSTEVE -super surfing
stonemimi
#4 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 7:22:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/16/2009
Posts: 145
I am not for ugali for now. This company has lost a golden opportunity. They had opportunity to import cheaper maize but it seems not to be translating to profits. I dont trust the SA management.
FundamentAli
#5 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 8:16:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
@Stonemini

Management is american. Fellas are taking too long to decide whether they want the company or not.


Baada ya dhiki,faaraja
stonemimi
#6 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 9:44:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/16/2009
Posts: 145
@Fundament

When did management change. May be it is their bias towards sourcing from SA. Whichever the case,the guys have a weak market strategy. To me,they are akin to a receiver manager- no clue what business they are in. I have a serious problem with the pricing of their imports and thus inventory.
FundamentAli
#7 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 9:50:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
@Stonemimi

Seaboard are one of the largest grain traders in the world. They know what they are doing.


Baada ya dhiki,faaraja
The General
#8 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 10:21:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
Had an interest,but couldn't get a hold of their financials. Iko website?

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
stonemimi
#9 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 10:35:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/16/2009
Posts: 145
@Fundament

That clarifies my suspicions and fears on this counter. They are making their money in grain trading by transfer pricing. They care less about the performance of unga. Their grain pricing is totally out of the market. If they were genuine,they'ld be passing some of the discounts to unga. Under the circumstances,unga will never be a star performer. Anoher NO NO for me.
mukiha
#10 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 11:02:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@stonemimi; those are quite serious allegations....transfer pricing etc. Any proof you can share with us?

Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
stonemimi
#11 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2009 11:40:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/16/2009
Posts: 145
@mukiha

Maize is a commodity internationally traded. Most of this and last year,the government allowed duty free imports,which means the inventory cost should be equal international commodity price/tonne + a small margin (say 10%). It happens,as intimated below by @FundamentAli the management of unga have a commodity company(with a minority interest in unga) which sources their maize. The same company controls management. We are in a moral hazard situation.

You have a small exercise to prove what am telling is true. Take inventory of maize at the company (the report has just been released) divide by the tonnage,and compare with home market price. If less than 1.5 times,I am wrong. Lets compare notes.
sparkly
#12 Posted : Saturday, September 26, 2009 10:25:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
At this particular point in time,I seriously think there are better stocks one can invest in... Unless you are into speculation/ gambling.
Life is short. Live passionately.
FundamentAli
#13 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 7:31:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
The price continues to dip. If it gets to Shs. 5/- buy. One question I have is why would the local shareholding want to selL?

Baada ya dhiki,faaraja
The General
#14 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 1:03:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
Unga profits drop as costs eat into revenue

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
mukiha
#15 Posted : Thursday, April 22, 2010 6:56:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
When this thread started, Unga was at 8.05; then it rose to 12.35 by 10th July; dropped back to 7.10 by 2nd Oct; up again to 12.15 on 11th March and today it is at 10.50.

Has anyone made money through this see-saw?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#16 Posted : Thursday, April 22, 2010 7:09:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
.....see how it compares with the rest of the market...

11 May 09 NSE20 = 2830
10 Jul 09 NSE20 = 3296
02 Oct 09 NSE20 = 3037
11 mar 10 NSE20 = 3965
21 Apr 10 NSE20 = 4148

Does Unga have a life of its own or is it just following the crowd? Your decision; I am just watching from the sidelines
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Thursday, April 22, 2010 6:17:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
So much mis-information

1) @stonemimi - SeaBoard is American. And it is a HUGE firm... in the grains business for many, many years...

2) @fundamentali - Seaboard did not exercise its option to buy 15% of Unga Holdings... and it has since expired...

3) @kusadikika - Unga has not been a consistent dividend payer like BAT...

4) @stonemimi - Unless the ndegwas (who control Unga Limited) are daft (well, this is the chumz their mzee stole) or get a cut of the transfer pricing... how do you know this is the case?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#18 Posted : Thursday, April 22, 2010 10:28:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
From the moment that i knew how to read the market report in the nation 'high' 'low' 'previous' '52 weeks' i have only seen one direction in the unga stock price-down. Anyone knows if they have been growing their balance sheet all these years?
Life is short. Live passionately.
FundamentAli
#19 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 10:01:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
For the first time in many years Unga is now advertising its products in centenary celebration. They might be having an upper hand on the wheat market at the moment. Whether this translates to profits is another issue.
mukiha
#20 Posted : Friday, April 23, 2010 1:39:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Do these guys have a website?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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