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whats pushing SCOM
meshaque
#1 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 8:44:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 36
Location: Nairobi
Where is excitement coming from?

http://www.bloomberg.com...ve&sid=a7vhHR1D.k1E


mesh
sheep
#2 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 8:57:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
juz imagine what will happen when it hits Kes 5.00?
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
Hi-Lo
#3 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 9:03:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
..isn't it unfair for scom to prepare an insider report for foreigners leaving the rest of us in the dark?

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 9:41:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,110
Location: Nairobi
Isn't this akin to Insider Trading where some investors are getting far more information than we are???
*** In a one-to-one they can get answers to questions we would have no way of finding out...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Douvante
#5 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 9:42:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2008
Posts: 55
What could be causing this sudden demand for this share is there something cooking? the price is really improving by the day. Experts what is your analysis?

Everything happens for a reason.
KulaRaha
#6 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 9:49:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
At 5/= this party will end suddenly! Probably at 4.80 range.

Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
mukiha
#7 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 9:50:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@VVS;

I don't think the foreigners are getting anything more than you and I get when we attend the quarterly briefings.

You see,for some guy sitting in Paris,SCOM means absolutely nothing...just like Microsoft means absolutely nothing to me {as an investment,that is].

If Microsoft VPs came to Nairobi,however,I would attend the briefing and probably make a better informed decision on whether or not to invest some money in it.

See,I don't want to be like some SKerians who invested in the KenGen PIB without even knowing when the interest will be paid [and,BTW the still call it 'PIBO'...it's no longer an offer,guys;!!!!]

Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 10:38:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,110
Location: Nairobi
@mukiha - Which quarterly briefing do all investors get invited to? Except for the AGM... I have never received an invitation for a briefing...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Much Know
#9 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 10:49:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Mainly south african investors

Niône mwisho ya mwezi pliz!
A New Kenya
murenj
#10 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 2:20:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 851
Location: nairobi
In june we had a similar rally. Only for it to slump in july. So prepare your knives in february for 3.80 per share

Muthonwa a Agikuyu
mv ufanisi
#11 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 2:32:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
With Les Bailie all over the world's financial capitals and the western investors there,you can expect more buys. Given that SCOM is a penny stock to them,it might not make that much difference if the stock is Kshs 4 or 5.
Plus a lot of these PEs and fund managers hold huge amounts of money. A move on the market and they could buy out all those Kenyans selling at Kshs 5.
Management will also make a move on consolidation next year so they could be hoping to get the small owners out by getting the share price to 5 bob.
Seller's regret will happen when the share rises to Kshs 20 in future and Kenyans again regret selling to foreigners.
mlefu
#12 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 2:40:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
how do you tell the buyers country...

i love your smile....

ktr
#13 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 4:53:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2009
Posts: 30
@ mv ufanisi,i've the same feeling,hence 4 long-term we better buy.

...better bitter butter.
sparkly
#14 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 7:04:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@meshaque why are you asking. Don't you really know that Safaricom has no peers in East and Central Africa?

On another note,Safaricom's recovery is a clear sign that the long awaited nse recovery is here!

In the beginning .....

Remember it all started with Safaricom's fall. The IPO was oversubscribed,traded at almost 8/= upon listing,then plunged for no particular reason.

Even the release of super results did not help to hold up the share price. It just kept on sliding like a greased penguin down an icy slope.

Everyone was baffled,including the press who kept singing 'fundamentals' 'unlikely to go below IPO price' 'unlikely to go below 4/=' 'those who took loans liquidating' 'investor confidence' blah blah.

Then we realised that it was bigger than Safaricom,nse,East Africa or even Africa.

Just like in the beginning,the end will be marked by safaricom's recovery ...

Price rally for no particular reason,up and up despite ratinalization,going and going.

Its time to take up positions on your favorite stocks.

Dont say you were not forewarned.


Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 9:32:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,110
Location: Nairobi
Safaricom (as many other shares) were oversold meaning the prices were unrealistically low BUT that opens the doors for the savvy/smart folks!!!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Brewer
#16 Posted : Friday, November 20, 2009 5:21:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/24/2008
Posts: 238
Why would the management of the company be marketing to foreigners to trade in their shares unless they are priming the company for an injection of capital or borrowing such as the bond they just had. In that case the disclosure requirements kick in otherwise they tread carefully on the insider trading prohibition. Its of course possible the person reporting on bloomberg got it all wrong.
Iborian
#17 Posted : Friday, November 20, 2009 6:45:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
Profit taking has started. Sellers at 4.40 now twice the number of buyers. Can't believe there are less than 1 million shares in total being demanded. Best demand at 4.15 as of 9.41 a.m. However,Safcom has shown that it is capable of rising to Kshs 5 by the beginning of next year.

'When you do not know a thing,admit that you do not know it. This is knowledge' - Confucius
Djinn
#18 Posted : Friday, November 20, 2009 7:30:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
this reminds me of the story of the guy who wanted to buy chameleons...I think the same ting is happening here...'simulate demand' and start a buying frenzy...price rises...but there really is nothing to make the price rise. ARPU's will keep dropping,even with data services - no two ways about it. Subscriber base cannot grow in leaps and bounds like in the last 4-5 years (not with Yu doing what it is doing). Mobile subscribers estimated to be around 18 million and SCOM with a 78% market share (but in reality that 78% includes discarded SIM cards and infrequently used SIM cards by Zain,Orange and Yu subscribers - for receiving calls from SCOM). So the 'real' market share for all networks could be at least 5-15% lower with 15-20% of the market being 'polygamous' i.e. more than one SIM.

MJ had once spoken of trying to make the share value higher....this is how....not by IMPROVING fundamentals

The problem with equality is that we desire that it be with those that have more than us rather that those that have less
Iborian
#19 Posted : Friday, November 20, 2009 11:53:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
Seems like I was way too cautious with my prediction of 5 bob by early next year. Heck,at this rate,it will 5 bob by next week (maybe even by Tuesday). Everyone appears to be willing it to get there. Good for our long suffering market if this phoenix is able to rise from dem ashes.

'When you do not know a thing,admit that you do not know it. This is knowledge' - Confucius
mukiha
#20 Posted : Friday, November 20, 2009 12:09:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@Iborian;
You ask: 'Why would the management of the company be marketing to foreigners to trade in their shares ....?

SCOM management is doing this to boost the company's PR. The company has been getting very bad publicity due to the depressed price....the media use it as an example of why NOT to invest in shares...and then they GAVE [instead of PAID] only ten cents dividend out of their sh10b profit!!!

If the 800k +shareholders begin to make a profit through capital gains,the stories in the media will change and the company will be reported in positive light.

I support the move

Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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