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FULL YEAR 2012 BANKING SECTOR VALUATION
youcan'tstopusnow
#1 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 7:28:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
PRICE TO BOOK VALUE
NIC - 1.72
BBK - 3.19
HFCK - 0.94
EQTY - 2.59
KCB - 2.13
COOP - 2.07

PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO
NIC - 8.13
BBK - 10.78
HFCK - 6.37
EQTY - 9.20
KCB - 9.31
COOP - 8.04

DIVIDEND YIELD
NIC - 2%
BBK - 5.8%
HFCK - 6.8%
EQTY - 4.2%
KCB - 5%
COOP - 3.4%

RETURN ON ASSETS
NIC - 2.8%
BBK - 4.7%
HFCK - 1.8%
EQTY - 5%
KCB - 3.3%
COOP - 3.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY
NIC - 19.6%
BBK - 29.5%
HFCK - 14.5%
EQTY - 28.1%
KCB - 22.9%
COOP - 25.7%

LOAN BOOK QUALITY (GROSS NPLs/Loans Advanced)
NIC - 4.8%
BBK - 3.6%
HFCK - 7.7%
EQTY - 3.3%
KCB - 7.0%
COOP - 5.2%

Nani mshindi? Discusssmile

PS: If you encounter any errors, please do not hesitate to correct them

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
ChessMaster
#2 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 7:38:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Obvious one for me is HFCK.The P/B would have done it for me.Although I hate their dividend yield,great NPL.Their ROA and ROE,I'm thinking they focus on long-term so don't mind it.Reviews?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
youcan'tstopusnow
#3 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 7:59:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
ChessMaster wrote:
Obvious one for me is HFCK.The P/B would have done it for me.Although I hate their dividend yield,great NPL.Their ROA and ROE,I'm thinking they focus on long-term so don't mind it.Reviews?

It is actually bad i.e the higher the worse, the lower the better
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
ChessMaster
#4 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:05:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Obvious one for me is HFCK.The P/B would have done it for me.Although I hate their dividend yield,great NPL.Their ROA and ROE,I'm thinking they focus on long-term so don't mind it.Reviews?

It is actually bad i.e the higher the worse, the lower the better


But what assets will they be left holding?

Lets work with it then,next in line would be COOP.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
youcan'tstopusnow
#5 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:07:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
HF comes out top in three metrics and bottom in the rest. If you were to come up with your very own tallying system for every valuation metric, assigning 1 points for being 6th, and 6 points for being 1st, some of the results are somewhat surprising...

Anyway, I would also lean in favour of HFCK on account of its low P/B, which is way below the 2.1 average of the six, not to mention its exciting housing projects. mwekezaji, any comments on the low ROA and ROE of HF?

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#6 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:11:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
ChessMaster wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Obvious one for me is HFCK.The P/B would have done it for me.Although I hate their dividend yield,great NPL.Their ROA and ROE,I'm thinking they focus on long-term so don't mind it.Reviews?

It is actually bad i.e the higher the worse, the lower the better


But what assets will they be left holding?

Lets work with it then,next in line would be COOP.

I didn't quite get you there. I was pointing out that HFCK has the highest Non Performing Loans as a proportion of total loans advanced, as opposed to say, Equity which has the lowest Non Performing Loans as a proportion of total loans advanced. Thus we would say Equity has the 'cleanest' books among the five.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
ChessMaster
#7 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:13:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
I think tallying that way would exclude some finer details to be considered. When it comes to dividend yield I don't like companies giving out money they should be reinvesting.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
ChessMaster
#8 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:20:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Obvious one for me is HFCK.The P/B would have done it for me.Although I hate their dividend yield,great NPL.Their ROA and ROE,I'm thinking they focus on long-term so don't mind it.Reviews?

It is actually bad i.e the higher the worse, the lower the better


But what assets will they be left holding?

Lets work with it then,next in line would be COOP.

I didn't quite get you there. I was pointing out that HFCK has the highest Non Performing Loans as a proportion of total loans advanced, as opposed to say, Equity which has the lowest Non Performing Loans as a proportion of total loans advanced. Thus we would say Equity has the 'cleanest' books among the five.


If the loans are advanced with real estate as security,I think they are in a good position.My thoughts,they can dispose them and recover their interests or since someone was invested in it, s/he will be tempted to come back to it.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
S.Mutaga III
#9 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:22:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Where are CFC Stanbic and Diamond Trust Bank?...am a fan of both
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
ChessMaster
#10 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:25:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Where are CFC Stanbic and Diamond Trust Bank?...am a fan of both


Can I also suggest we add insurance.Financials will be a heated and well needed debate IMO.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
youcan'tstopusnow
#11 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:25:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Where are CFC Stanbic and Diamond Trust Bank?...am a fan of both

NBK, DTB na Standard Chartered have yet to release their Full Year 2012 Results
CFC, someone mentioned they had only released results for the 'Holding Company' and the one for the 'Bank' was to appear separately in the newspapers. I missed it.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#12 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:29:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Is @msimon still around? He really knew how to value the insurance companies...

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
S.Mutaga III
#13 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:38:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Banking and Insurance are the best industries in Kenya...with the highest potential to evolve into Pan-African businesses...CiC is in my watchlist because it is not exposed to the stock exchange...I always find it expensive thats why I dont buy
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
SittingPretty
#14 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 9:28:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Banking and Insurance are the best industries in Kenya...with the highest potential to evolve into Pan-African businesses...CiC is in my watchlist because it is not exposed to the stock exchange...I always find it expensive thats why I dont buy


Could you clarify the statement, for enlightment purposes.
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
S.Mutaga III
#15 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 9:32:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
SittingPretty wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Banking and Insurance are the best industries in Kenya...with the highest potential to evolve into Pan-African businesses...CiC is in my watchlist because it is not exposed to the stock exchange...I always find it expensive thats why I dont buy


Could you clarify the statement, for enlightment purposes.

it has not invested heavily on listed companies...I have a feeling you understand what I mean but you are just acting dumb
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
youcan'tstopusnow
#16 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 10:01:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
S.Mutaga III wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Banking and Insurance are the best industries in Kenya...with the highest potential to evolve into Pan-African businesses...CiC is in my watchlist because it is not exposed to the stock exchange...I always find it expensive thats why I dont buy


Could you clarify the statement, for enlightment purposes.

it has not invested heavily on listed companies...I have a feeling you understand what I mean but you are just acting dumb

Kuwa mpole. Kuuliza si ujinga!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Ericsson
#17 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 10:05:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
@S.Mutaga III;CIC is expensive because you missed the bus.You should have jumped in when it was trading at the ranges ksh.3.10 to 3.20
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mwekez@ji
#18 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 7:16:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
HF comes out top in three metrics and bottom in the rest. If you were to come up with your very own tallying system for every valuation metric, assigning 1 points for being 6th, and 6 points for being 1st, some of the results are somewhat surprising...

Anyway, I would also lean in favour of HFCK on account of its low P/B, which is way below the 2.1 average of the six, not to mention its exciting housing projects. mwekezaji, any comments on the low ROA and ROE of HF?



IMHO, HF is cheap from the price valuation metrics (P/E, P/B, DY). However, it remains a diamond in the rough because it is yet to realize its full returns/earnings and hence the low ROA & ROE. It also need to reduce its Cost to Income ratio which is high at 59.4%. ... Another general observation is that the Tier II banks have relatively lower ROA & ROE than the Tier I banks Think
mwekez@ji
#19 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 7:29:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Equity Bank to me emerges as the top money maker (has high ROA & ROE) and is set to benefit from regional expansion and soon from its pan-african expansion strategy. We also know it will continue to get support from government. However, the Price Valuation metrics indicates the share is trading at a premium and most analyst have either rated it HOLD or SELL. This counter is in my watch list this year
the deal
#20 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 7:49:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
HF was never a bank, its only now that theyre being allowed to operate current accounts. The low RoE and RoA is due to cost of funds. The big banks i.e Equity Bank and KCB can get cheap deposits from their vast customer networks and lend at crazy prices thus enjoying better margins which the mid tier banks can only dream off.
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