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Pump & Dump Schemes at the NSE
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Sisqo
#1 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 1:28:50 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 21
The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:-

1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing.

2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm

3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall).

4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up.

It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped.
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mibbz
#2 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 1:37:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Sisqo wrote:
The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:-

1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing.

2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm

3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall).

4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up.

It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped.


actually suggested this on this forum and somebody lashed back at me. Its possible to pump and dump,one can actually do it as an individual given time,skill and money.
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FOsiemo10M
#3 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 3:41:04 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/5/2013
Posts: 66
Sisqo wrote:
The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:-

1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing.

2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm

3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall).

4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up.

It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped.



Buy now as things keep going up. Sell by March
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hisah
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 4:06:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I'd support pump & dump theory if the net bid was locally controlled. But since March 2012, net bid is foreign sided. Until the status flips to net sell, expect the market to stay at the lofty heights despite the current electioneering period. Have you seen the Venezuela haywire illogical/irrational rally for the last 2yrs non-stop despite the Chavez seesaw administration period?

This year more oil/gas wells are being prospected thus more funds flows coming in.

Until that hot money flees, expect the logics to be defied!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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MoG
#5 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 4:55:18 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/19/2011
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
March is days away. Before then, you can be making good cash with the current rally
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Sisqo
#6 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 4:59:36 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 21
hisah wrote:
I'd support pump & dump theory if the net bid was locally controlled. But since March 2012, net bid is foreign sided. Until the status flips to net sell, expect the market to stay at the lofty heights despite the current electioneering period. Have you seen the Venezuela haywire illogical/irrational rally for the last 2yrs non-stop despite the Chavez seesaw administration period?

This year more oil/gas wells are being prospected thus more funds flows coming in.

Until that hot money flees, expect the logics to be defied!


That makes it more dangerous.

1-Capital flight can have devastating results to a country's economy. Look at the effect of FPI's in Asia in the 1990. Foreign Portfolio Investment can have devastating results.

2-We do not have any laws governing or regulating this compared to countries like China, Brazil, and India.

3-The recent base lending rates cuts will leave the market awash with money. This creates a temporary/false impression that the economy is booming.

Many other reasons....I am just worried. Especially of the capital flight scenario. If Uhuru wins, trouble. If Raila wins, trouble. Sure opportunities to see our paper wealth at NSE evaporate.Especially those who will be buying stocks at a high (from mid Feb).
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FOsiemo10M
#7 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 5:08:36 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/5/2013
Posts: 66
MoG wrote:
March is days away. Before then, you can be making good cash with the current rally


CiC, Access Kenya,...the list is endless. I got CIC today at 4. Watching it grow in the next few months to profits.
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hisah
#8 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 5:12:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sisqo wrote:
hisah wrote:
I'd support pump & dump theory if the net bid was locally controlled. But since March 2012, net bid is foreign sided. Until the status flips to net sell, expect the market to stay at the lofty heights despite the current electioneering period. Have you seen the Venezuela haywire illogical/irrational rally for the last 2yrs non-stop despite the Chavez seesaw administration period?

This year more oil/gas wells are being prospected thus more funds flows coming in.

Until that hot money flees, expect the logics to be defied!


That makes it more dangerous.

1-Capital flight can have devastating results to a country's economy. Look at the effect of FPI's in Asia in the 1990. Foreign Portfolio Investment can have devastating results.

2-We do not have any laws governing or regulating this compared to countries like China, Brazil, and India.

3-The recent base lending rates cuts will leave the market awash with money. This creates a temporary/false impression that the economy is booming.

Many other reasons....I am just worried. Especially of the capital flight scenario. If Uhuru wins, trouble. If Raila wins, trouble. Sure opportunities to see our paper wealth at NSE evaporate.Especially those who will be buying stocks at a high (from mid Feb).

Bull markets climb walls of worry. The locals are very fearful while the bull is setting up its base. Follow the money, the rest is noise until it is not...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Gatheuzi
#9 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 8:00:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
The bull must be fattened, in readiness for slaughter.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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mibbz
#10 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 8:54:55 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
foreign investor can be any Kenyan with cash stashed abroad buying via a foreign account/broker. With all that cash stashed by kenyans abroad i wouldn't be surprised its just them 'cleaning' the cash as Al Jazeera suggested in a documentary about rise of real estate in Nairobi
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