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New Year Resolutions
stocksguru
#1 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 9:28:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
As the new year begins I am setting up a strategy for my portfolio which has gone off during the past 2 years. I have decided that I will only invest in 3 counters therefore I need to drop off one of the 4 or drop 2 and pick up a different one.



http://i1299.photobucket.com/al...iocharts_zps93fd6f07.png

Looking at my portfolio I feel it is time to divest from Eveready even though I still have confidence that it will be recovering soon, KQ and MSC are definitely good counters into the foreseeable future especially with their good dividend payouts.

I wish I had the emotional strength to sell Access at the current loss position but I do not so my only choice will be to do the thing I did with Eveready, average down.

http://i1299.photobucket.com/al...mentERDY_zps07566b0e.png


What is more critical now that I have decided to sell off EVRD is where to put the proceeds;

1. Do I start averaging down ACCS?
2. Do I increase my position in MSC?
3. Do I increase my position in KQ?
4. Do I start diversification and add bonds to my portfolio?

I will deal with access in the second quarter of the year after the elections as well as the investment in bonds, so the only decision now is between 2 & 3.

In the current year I would like to add some fixed income instruments onto my portfolio so as to create a dependable income especially since I am getting closer to retirement.

Therefore it might make more sense to average down ACCS then sell off once it goes positive and use the funds to go into bonds instead of reinvesting in the equities market.

http://i1299.photobucket.com/al...siskqmsc_zpsb8de6bf9.png

The graph above has sorted out the issue of which counter to grow as you can see MSC is actually a better buy than KQ. With the planned increase in power production expected and the recently approved increased rate for sell of power to KPLC this situation is likely to persist for a while longer.

MSC has also consistently paid out a dividend over the past number of years a policy I believe the board intends to continue pursuing into the future. The new devolved government is the icing on this cake.

With KRA on the neck of property owners, it seems time for me to sell off those rental units, but with elections round the corner, there is a stronger temptation to pick up more as the prices are very appealing with many looking for elective positions.

In addition, the confusing and alarming KRA messages concerning taxes on rent with the threat of a retrospective application has also increased the supply of rental units up for sale especially in the 3,000/- to 15,000/- per unit rental range of multi-dwelling properties.

As I start the new year all seems rosy and unless we do something stupid on 4th of March the rest should be academic.

Have a prosperous and sensible new year.
S.Mutaga III
#2 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 9:50:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
When I look at your portfolio,I feel mercy.KQ,Eveready and Access Kenya....only Mumias makes sense to me in your portfolio...The rest are monkeys.Even in Mumias,seek to average down to increase your chances of being right. I would advice you to add a bank to your portfolio...this is Kenya and banks are the shit.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#3 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 9:59:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Selling rental units is a dumb move too. Yani you are selling real estate when some of us are investing in stocks to get cash for real estate...remember that any tax by KRA will be passed on to the tenant...so it makes no difference.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
stocksguru
#4 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:16:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
I am speaking from a position of knowledge, if I had known better I would have done what you are planning to do first invest in paper assets before going into real estate unfortunately I did not.

Investing in real estate is not as painless as it might be made to seem, I have lost 4 months rent for a block of flats I own as the tenants refused to move out to allow us to renovate them until they had found equivalent alternative accommodation. The days of throwing peoples things out in the middle of the night have ended as the tenant acquires more rights. They currently pay half what the neighboring properties charge.

Also remember the effects of the recent interest rates which we unfortunately could not pass on to the tenants, it is unfortunate that mortgage companies goes preferential terms to owner occupiers such as fixed rates and longer terms yet they are a higher risk as their repayments are usually based on salaried income which is difficult to replace.

A rental property is usually a safer bet especially where there are multiple units as if a tenant is unable to pay you replace them with one who does without having to deal with issues of spousal approval, matrimonial homes and court injunctions.

The headaches of real estate will take me to an early grave better transfer it to a younger heart and stronger shoulders.

Rent increases are very difficult to effect without loosing tenants which means going back to your pocket to top up the loan repayments
mlennyma
#5 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:26:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Whether monkey or what i believe every stock will have its day.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
stocksguru
#6 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:36:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
The bank holiday is soon coming to a sudden and abrupt end as new legislation is effected soon after the new government is in place.

Banking as we know it is fast changing which is why Dr. Odour has walked away while things are fine and Dr. Mwangi is handing over the reigns. Barclay's is soon to rebrand so as to reflect its real owners as the pirate family moves back to a market they better understand. Even old man Muya has seen the light and the Muguku family has realised there is better return in dealing with our feathered friends.

Steel is the next big thing as we prepare to drill oil and with the devolution electricity is no longer the preserve of the politically correct and since we cannot transmit electricity wirelessly then you can see where the sustainable growth areas will be generated.

Eveready has posted a profit, please look through the annual report before you dismiss it as a washed entity, also the next time you are in the supermarket please take a look at the batteries and lantern sections.

Access has gone back to the basics of its business which with time (2-3 years) will likely pay off handsomely it is encouraging that the Somen's will not be leaving the country soon and have settled back for another generation. Simba amenyeshewa sio paka.

KQ will see sustained growth as they change their strategy, code sharing with the Chinese airlines is a great opportunity all they need is to do the same with India and suddenly they will have access to half of the worlds population. The right half as it is becoming richer and more affluent with a growing middle class. I hope we shall not drag Naikuni through the mad as we did with Kirubi, by not appreciating the difference between Opex and capex.


S.Mutaga III wrote:
When I look at your portfolio,I feel mercy.KQ,Eveready and Access Kenya....only Mumias makes sense to me in your portfolio...The rest are monkeys.Even in Mumias,seek to average down to increase your chances of being right. I would advice you to add a bank to your portfolio...this is Kenya and banks are the shit.

S.Mutaga III
#7 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:41:02 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
mlennyma wrote:
Whether monkey or what i believe every stock will have its day.

This should not be used to justify buying into a bad investment....dont be ignorant.If a company has issued five consecutive profit warnings and has no future prospects,will you buy more or abandon ship?...the choice is yours
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
stocksguru
#8 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:43:50 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
Buy more like a typical Kenyan who runs towards the sound of the blast, buying a share at the top of its price range is insane, avoid the sheep mentality.

In addition an investor looks more at the fundamentals of the organisation not the price of its current share price.

S.Mutaga III wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Whether monkey or what i believe every stock will have its day.

This should not be used to justify buying into a bad investment....dont be ignorant.If a company has issued five consecutive profit warnings and has no future prospects,will you buy more or abandon ship?...the choice is yours

S.Mutaga III
#9 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:46:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
The only valid reason for buying into your proposed counters is that you are buying into a very long term investment.Long term investments are for young people.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:57:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@stocksguru - Real estate is NOT as easy as folks think it is. There are vacancies, maintenance issues, taxes, paperwork, etc

As for your stock picks... Good luck is all I can say!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksguru
#11 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 11:10:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
How long is very long and how young is young?

I have clearly indicated that I am reducing my holdings in stocks that will not be recovering soon and which means that I agree with your analysis.

What I am doing is moving forward from why I am standing, your statements makes it seem that I have just taken a position which is a wrong assumption, maybe you could share your portfolio so that we can see how you have applied your knowledge of the market and the companies.

Please appreciate the fact that I can only move from my current position, starting from an imaginary position would be fool hardy and deceitful both to you and to myself.

You cannot budget based on an expected salary you budget based on your current salary and situation one cannot wish away their age, marital status, number of children or current employment.

What I have posted is my portfolio as it stands this morning a situation that qualifies as water under the bridge what is important is what I do from here going forward.

I promise to post my portfolio at the end of the 1st quarter at which point you will be justified in judging my decisions.



S.Mutaga III wrote:
The only valid reason for buying into your proposed counters is that you are buying into a very long term investment.Long term investments are for young people.

VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 11:18:13 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
stocksguru wrote:
Buy more like a typical Kenyan who runs towards the sound of the blast, buying a share at the top of its price range is insane, avoid the sheep mentality.

In addition an investor looks more at the fundamentals of the organisation not the price of its current share price.
True but Neveready?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 11:20:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@stocksguru - Nice graphs/tables... I need to use them more often. How about something more interesting... Comparing the laggards to others that have potential [Not KQ, Mumias, Eveready!]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksguru
#14 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 11:45:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
Between Neveready and Access which is the worst buy?

VituVingiSana wrote:
stocksguru wrote:
Buy more like a typical Kenyan who runs towards the sound of the blast, buying a share at the top of its price range is insane, avoid the sheep mentality.

In addition an investor looks more at the fundamentals of the organisation not the price of its current share price.
True but Neveready?

kryptonite
#15 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 12:00:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@stocksguru - Nice graphs/tables... I need to use them more often. How about something more interesting... Comparing the laggards to others that have potential [Not KQ, Mumias, Eveready!]


Laughing out loudly @VVS This is the most patient I've seen you...new year resolution?
The harder you work, the luckier you get
maka
#16 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 12:09:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Whether monkey or what i believe every stock will have its day.

...am with you on this one the problem with akina s.mutaga 3 and co is that you put a lot of fundamental and technical analysis in a market that reacts rarely on such...i once sold eveready at 28,scom at 6.40...if all goes well and the market gathers the right momentum probably to 5000
pts onwards every stock will indeed have its day...this is the Nairobi securities exchange we are talking about,where stocks can reach a high of 900 in a couple of dayz...
possunt quia posse videntur
S.Mutaga III
#17 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 12:14:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
From your current position I would:
1 ) Liquidate all my nse holdings.
2 ) With the proceeds, I would buy into three income stocks.
Rea Vipingo:- Payday is nearing.With a projected dividend of 1.5 per share, you can get a return of about 6% of your investment in two months.After books closure,the price will tank a little presenting you with an opportunity to increase your holding.
Housing Finance:- Payday is coming soon and you will start reaping the benefits of your investment. It is trading at a dividend yield of >9%.
Mumias Sugar:- At a dividend yield approaching 10% and with diversification,buy it even though it is trading ex dividend. Dont stick around if there is a rihts issue.
Disclaimer:- Dont take positions in a counter all at once. Buy a chunk and then seek to average down as you get the cash.This will reduce the chances of error and also reduce your buying price.
#Goodluck#
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
mlefu
#18 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 1:03:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
Boss...how do you manage to sleep?
stocksguru
#19 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 1:25:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/19/2007
Posts: 68
Thanks for the advice but unfortunately you are giving me trading/speculative strategies yet am an investor.

If you look at my initial post I have an appreciation of averaging down.

Your proposed churning will only give a return to my broker which is money down the drain.

Finally, you still have not shared your portfolio so that I am sure you are an active trader/investor and not a backseat driver.


S.Mutaga III wrote:
From your current position I would:
1 ) Liquidate all my nse holdings.
2 ) With the proceeds, I would buy into three income stocks.
Rea Vipingo:- Payday is nearing.With a projected dividend of 1.5 per share, you can get a return of about 6% of your investment in two months.After books closure,the price will tank a little presenting you with an opportunity to increase your holding.
Housing Finance:- Payday is coming soon and you will start reaping the benefits of your investment. It is trading at a dividend yield of >9%.
Mumias Sugar:- At a dividend yield approaching 10% and with diversification,buy it even though it is trading ex dividend. Dont stick around if there is a rihts issue.
Disclaimer:- Dont take positions in a counter all at once. Buy a chunk and then seek to average down as you get the cash.This will reduce the chances of error and also reduce your buying price.
#Goodluck#

S.Mutaga III
#20 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 1:35:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
stocksguru wrote:
Thanks for the advice but unfortunately you are giving me trading/speculative strategies yet am an investor.

If you look at my initial post I have an appreciation of averaging down.

Your proposed churning will only give a return to my broker which is money down the drain.

Finally, you still have not shared your portfolio so that I am sure you are an active trader/investor and not a backseat driver.


S.Mutaga III wrote:
From your current position I would:
1 ) Liquidate all my nse holdings.
2 ) With the proceeds, I would buy into three income stocks.
Rea Vipingo:- Payday is nearing.With a projected dividend of 1.5 per share, you can get a return of about 6% of your investment in two months.After books closure,the price will tank a little presenting you with an opportunity to increase your holding.
Housing Finance:- Payday is coming soon and you will start reaping the benefits of your investment. It is trading at a dividend yield of >9%.
Mumias Sugar:- At a dividend yield approaching 10% and with diversification,buy it even though it is trading ex dividend. Dont stick around if there is a rihts issue.
Disclaimer:- Dont take positions in a counter all at once. Buy a chunk and then seek to average down as you get the cash.This will reduce the chances of error and also reduce your buying price.
#Goodluck#


averaging down does not increase the comissions you pay to a broker since they are charged as a percentage.It only increases your dividend yield and possible capital gains.As of being a trader,I dont believe in trading,that is why I did not tell you anything about selling the stocks I recommended.Just buy and hold for the medium term and ocassionally examine your picks in light of prevailing market conditions. From what I see,you have already made up your mind on what step to take next. It may prove futile convincing you otherwise. #goodluck#
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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