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Natural resource boom and unemployment
kaifastus
#1 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2012 4:10:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Natural resource boom leads to disappointing employment and growth outcomes...
1.Oil industry unable to absorb large amounts of labor.
2.labor intensive sectors agriculture,manufacturing and construction benefit the poor directly(I Noticed that these are low productivity sectors)

These are conclusions derived from a world bank paper i was looking at. Link http://www-wds.worldbank...endered/PDF/wps6250.pdf
mkeiyd
#2 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2012 4:41:44 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
If you look at UAE,Saudia, Qatar etc have laid their foundation on oil,has their growth [singling UAE n Qatar] been disappointing?
Are those sectors ie oil/mining supposed to be direct mass employers? Of course not and no one should expect them to be.
It's the proceeds from those natural resources that should be used to weave the national fabric for growth and development.
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2012 9:15:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mkeiyd wrote:
...
It's the proceeds from those natural resources that should be used to weave the national fabric for growth and development.

Precisely. A means to an end.
murchr
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 5:20:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
kaifastus wrote:
Natural resource boom leads to disappointing employment and growth outcomes...
1.Oil industry unable to absorb large amounts of labor.
2.labor intensive sectors agriculture,manufacturing and construction benefit the poor directly(I Noticed that these are low productivity sectors)

These are conclusions derived from a world bank paper i was looking at. Link http://www-wds.worldbank...endered/PDF/wps6250.pdf


Can that be said of Bostwana? What about Angola where Portugues are flooding in search of jobs since there are none in their country. What about Norway.

That blanket statement holds no ground
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 5:51:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
World bank BS again...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kaifastus
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 9:40:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
murchr wrote:
kaifastus wrote:
Natural resource boom leads to disappointing employment and growth outcomes...
1.Oil industry unable to absorb large amounts of labor.
2.labor intensive sectors agriculture,manufacturing and construction benefit the poor directly(I Noticed that these are low productivity sectors)

These are conclusions derived from a world bank paper i was looking at. Link http://www-wds.worldbank...endered/PDF/wps6250.pdf


Can that be said of Bostwana? What about Angola where Portugues are flooding in search of jobs since there are none in their country. What about Norway.

That blanket statement holds no ground


REALLY??
Kenya govt will have a big problem managing expectations.The youth will expect jobs immediately oil/cash starts flowing. however jobs being churned out in this sector are very few and have least linkages with other sectors.
The formula for sharing proceeds with external investors is not clear. i feel its gonna take a long time before tullow recovers its investments..as for the GOK these funds will be used to lay necessary oil infrastructure,or pay back such debt if the infrastructure will be in place.

@CDE and MKEID its so easy for you to expect the oil cash to suport employment creating sectors like agriculture and construction,but that could happen 15 years later .
How do we manage youths expectations?? we could have unrest or even civil strife if the issue is politicized
Obi 1 Kanobi
#7 Posted : Saturday, November 10, 2012 8:45:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
kaifastus wrote:
murchr wrote:
kaifastus wrote:
Natural resource boom leads to disappointing employment and growth outcomes...
1.Oil industry unable to absorb large amounts of labor.
2.labor intensive sectors agriculture,manufacturing and construction benefit the poor directly(I Noticed that these are low productivity sectors)

These are conclusions derived from a world bank paper i was looking at. Link http://www-wds.worldbank...endered/PDF/wps6250.pdf


Can that be said of Bostwana? What about Angola where Portugues are flooding in search of jobs since there are none in their country. What about Norway.

That blanket statement holds no ground


REALLY??
Kenya govt will have a big problem managing expectations.The youth will expect jobs immediately oil/cash starts flowing. however jobs being churned out in this sector are very few and have least linkages with other sectors.
The formula for sharing proceeds with external investors is not clear. i feel its gonna take a long time before tullow recovers its investments..as for the GOK these funds will be used to lay necessary oil infrastructure,or pay back such debt if the infrastructure will be in place.

@CDE and MKEID its so easy for you to expect the oil cash to suport employment creating sectors like agriculture and construction,but that could happen 15 years later .
How do we manage youths expectations?? we could have unrest or even civil strife if the issue is politicized

Smart economics should be that once we hit commercial quantities of oil, we should start selling future production to lift the other economic sectors
By the time actual production starts it should be mix of delive ring forward sales and selling. That way the shock to the economy will be minimised
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
murchr
#8 Posted : Saturday, November 10, 2012 9:28:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
kaifastus wrote:
murchr wrote:
kaifastus wrote:
Natural resource boom leads to disappointing employment and growth outcomes...
1.Oil industry unable to absorb large amounts of labor.
2.labor intensive sectors agriculture,manufacturing and construction benefit the poor directly(I Noticed that these are low productivity sectors)

These are conclusions derived from a world bank paper i was looking at. Link http://www-wds.worldbank...endered/PDF/wps6250.pdf


Can that be said of Bostwana? What about Angola where Portugues are flooding in search of jobs since there are none in their country. What about Norway.

That blanket statement holds no ground


REALLY??
Kenya govt will have a big problem managing expectations.The youth will expect jobs immediately oil/cash starts flowing. however jobs being churned out in this sector are very few and have least linkages with other sectors.
The formula for sharing proceeds with external investors is not clear. i feel its gonna take a long time before tullow recovers its investments..as for the GOK these funds will be used to lay necessary oil infrastructure,or pay back such debt if the infrastructure will be in place.

@CDE and MKEID its so easy for you to expect the oil cash to suport employment creating sectors like agriculture and construction,but that could happen 15 years later .
How do we manage youths expectations?? we could have unrest or even civil strife if the issue is politicized


Just incase u havent noticed, there have been so much talk of how the oil industry doesnt create so many jobs. Thats why GOK is concentrating on other sectors (the by products if u like).

Pls, dont take blanket statements made by the WB to be the IT. They rubbished so many policies that were implemented by this govt which have inturn proved to be very wise.

On Tullow, look for the oil sharing agreement iko hapa wazua
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Cde Monomotapa
#9 Posted : Sunday, November 11, 2012 11:42:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Make me president then.
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