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ARM Nine Month pre-tax profit jumps 304 percent
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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FUNKY wrote:http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE89L00L20121022 I have always beleived in this Company compared to Bamburi. In the next 5 years, it will be a wealth creating stock! Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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Buy recomendation from dyer & blair "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mlennyma wrote:Buy recomendation from dyer & blair Pls share the report wazua@googlegroups.com cc 2mwekezaji@gmail.com
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Genghis Capital and SIB have HOLD recommendation. SIB has indicated the likelihood of downgrading its HOLD rating
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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mwekez@ji wrote:Genghis Capital and SIB have HOLD recommendation. SIB has indicated the likelihood of downgrading its HOLD rating Could have happened before the results. Remember split is still pending! Thieves
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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When was that dyer & blair report done and what is their Target Price. Below is what SIB has said today:
ARM’s 9month profit before tax and unrealized losses up 18.1%y/y; group revenue up 28.9%y/y. ARM Cement Limited (formerly Athi River Mining Limited) released 9month performance figures (period ended 30 September) marking 28.9%y/y growth in revenue and EPS of KES 8.34 (excluding unrealized foreign currency movements, EPS was up 18.1%y/y). On q/q basis, revenue was up 14.3% while PBT before forex movement declined 3.4%). EBITDA margin slipped to 24.1% from 26.3%. Overall, against our FY12 full year estimates, reported figures came in below expectation. On top line, our FY12 revenue excluding sales from the new Tanzania plant stands at KES 10.9bn, implying 17%q/q growth in 4Q12 (while we are comfortable with our FY12 Kenyan cement sales forecast of KES 8.1bn, we are inclined to cut our non-cement revenue estimates - borrowing from the 34%q/q drop in 2Q12). On Tanzania cement sales, ARM confirmed operations at the Dar es salaam 0.75mtpa grinding plant commenced in October. Based on guidance from management, our full year FY12 forecast included Tanzania sales starting July 2012. We had assumed total revenue of KES 2.2bn from volume sales of 0.2mtpa (this we are also inclined to cut). On margins we remain comfortable with our FY12 EBITDA margin estimate of 24.4%. Though we are on-course to revise our FY12 EPS estimate of KES 16.39 downward (on adjusted revenue estimates and increased borrowing costs) in our view ARM’s overall outlook remains positive. Based on our un-adjusted FY12 forecast figures, ARM currently trades at 10.9x EBITDA margin versus Bamburi’s 5x (FY12F). The current market price of KES 225 is 13.6% above our un-adjusted fair value of KES 194.42. (Company filling, Standard Investment Bank).
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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It was shared last week on Wazua google group. This is one counter i really regret not taking up early enough. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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murchr wrote:It was shared last week on Wazua google group. This is one counter i really regret not taking up early enough. Is @mlennyma referring to that old report dd 13.09.2012 that is now expired/passed by event?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Big up to ARM ;-) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/16/2007 Posts: 2,114
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Have they declared any dividend?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Chaka wrote:Have they declared any dividend? Nope. You should know this is not a dividend stock. Expected a first and final dividend of KES 2.25 at year end (1% dividend yield at the current VWAP of KES 228)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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CEO of ARM, Pradeep Paunrana, is a substantial shareholder in ARM, raises cash for expansion by other means which does not dilute existing shareholders. Compare to KQ's Board Members & CEO who have hardly any shares in KQ. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:When was that dyer & blair report done and what is their Target Price. Below is what SIB has said today:
ARM’s 9month profit before tax and unrealized losses up 18.1%y/y; group revenue up 28.9%y/y. ARM Cement Limited (formerly Athi River Mining Limited) released 9month performance figures (period ended 30 September) marking 28.9%y/y growth in revenue and EPS of KES 8.34 (excluding unrealized foreign currency movements, EPS was up 18.1%y/y). On q/q basis, revenue was up 14.3% while PBT before forex movement declined 3.4%). EBITDA margin slipped to 24.1% from 26.3%. Overall, against our FY12 full year estimates, reported figures came in below expectation. On top line, our FY12 revenue excluding sales from the new Tanzania plant stands at KES 10.9bn, implying 17%q/q growth in 4Q12 (while we are comfortable with our FY12 Kenyan cement sales forecast of KES 8.1bn, we are inclined to cut our non-cement revenue estimates - borrowing from the 34%q/q drop in 2Q12). On Tanzania cement sales, ARM confirmed operations at the Dar es salaam 0.75mtpa grinding plant commenced in October. Based on guidance from management, our full year FY12 forecast included Tanzania sales starting July 2012. We had assumed total revenue of KES 2.2bn from volume sales of 0.2mtpa (this we are also inclined to cut). On margins we remain comfortable with our FY12 EBITDA margin estimate of 24.4%. Though we are on-course to revise our FY12 EPS estimate of KES 16.39 downward (on adjusted revenue estimates and increased borrowing costs) in our view ARM’s overall outlook remains positive. Based on our un-adjusted FY12 forecast figures, ARM currently trades at 10.9x EBITDA margin versus Bamburi’s 5x (FY12F). The current market price of KES 225 is 13.6% above our un-adjusted fair value of KES 194.42. (Company filling, Standard Investment Bank). The price has retraced from the all time highs of 245/- when it closed at 235 on Oct 11 2012. Today's action might see it close at 193/- which is 17.87% selloff from 235/-
If it closes at 193/- the trailing PE is still steep at 17.7
Based on the earnings reported so far EPS will likely clock KES 11.10 (assuming PAT clocks 1.1B), which implies forward PE at the current share price of 193 is 17.39. The counter is also pending a shares split and has a $50m convertible loan (Nigerian Africa Finance Corporation - AFC - and has the option to convert the debt into a stake equivalent to 13.6% of the cement firm) with a 268/- conversion price.
Comparing apples for apples, ARM is a better deal at the current price than Bamburi @182/- with shrinking profitability. As for dividends, definitely Bamburi offers more than ARM, but looking at capital gains vs dividend yield, ARM beats Bamburi hands down.
update - corrected trailing PE from 16.63 - 17.7 on trailing EPS of 10.9
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Oh well, touched 190/- morning trade and now afternoon trades bounce off those 190s levels back to 220/- intra day highs. VWAP currently @217. Let's see if it'll test those 190s levels again to confirm no supply at those levels as trading slows down towards year end. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Eye on ARM share price as cement maker splits stock (Books Closure, Today, 21-December-2012) http://www.businessdailyafrica....0/-/100nw0a/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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ARM Nine Month pre-tax profit jumps 304 percent
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