Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Stocks/ Security and elections 2013.
Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/12/2012 Posts: 13
|
Am happy the market is currently doing well, the index is almost 4k and selected stocks are at their best. However will the market be able to ignore investor's dysphoria which comes with elections in Kenya? Am a bit concerned with the security situation in Kenya bearing in mind the new threats posed by terrorism which was absent during the last elections in 2007. Intelligence reports indicate that Kenyans are still polarized along tribal Alliances, unsettled IDPs still in camps forms a reserve which can be tapped by malicious politicians to cause chaos incase the votes don't go the way they want. ICC cases have not yet been determined and a aggravated parties still feel justice has not yet been served. Slow police reforms which might not be in place before ballot day, this in itself makes the police force susceptible to being misused. KDF being in Somalia denies the country useful security asset which can be used when other security agencies are unable to maintain law and order. This will be the first election to be held under the new constitution. All that said, how will the market behave?
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
|
tyjayden wrote:Am happy the market is currently doing well, the index is almost 4k and selected stocks are at their best. However will the market be able to ignore investor's dysphoria which comes with elections in Kenya? Am a bit concerned with the security situation in Kenya bearing in mind the new threats posed by terrorism which was absent during the last elections in 2007. Intelligence reports indicate that Kenyans are still polarized along tribal Alliances, unsettled IDPs still in camps forms a reserve which can be tapped by malicious politicians to cause chaos incase the votes don't go the way they want. ICC cases have not yet been determined and a aggravated parties still feel justice has not yet been served. Slow police reforms which might not be in place before ballot day, this in itself makes the police force susceptible to being misused. KDF being in Somalia denies the country useful security asset which can be used when other security agencies are unable to maintain law and order. This will be the first election to be held under the new constitution. All that said, how will the market behave? This is a genuine and logical concern. But be rest assured the magnitude of chaos will be minimal and the loser will accept defeat. That is what the two contenders affirm at least. The electoral commision helmsman look serious and fair. Good news the incumbent is not contesting so it is a semi neutral ground like 2002. Also
for now there is no anointed prefered candidate
courtesy of ICC. I will advise you if the market goes down take position as you will laugh by late 2013 / early 2014 when the chips are down. The incoming have to undo the wrongs like IDP, ethnicity. ICC ? The world is watching, all wil be well, we pray. This is a non resident foreigner point of view. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
young wrote:tyjayden wrote:Am happy the market is currently doing well, the index is almost 4k and selected stocks are at their best. However will the market be able to ignore investor's dysphoria which comes with elections in Kenya? Am a bit concerned with the security situation in Kenya bearing in mind the new threats posed by terrorism which was absent during the last elections in 2007. Intelligence reports indicate that Kenyans are still polarized along tribal Alliances, unsettled IDPs still in camps forms a reserve which can be tapped by malicious politicians to cause chaos incase the votes don't go the way they want. ICC cases have not yet been determined and a aggravated parties still feel justice has not yet been served. Slow police reforms which might not be in place before ballot day, this in itself makes the police force susceptible to being misused. KDF being in Somalia denies the country useful security asset which can be used when other security agencies are unable to maintain law and order. This will be the first election to be held under the new constitution. All that said, how will the market behave? This is a genuine and logical concern. But be rest assured the magnitude of chaos will be minimal and the loser this time will accept defeat. I will advise you if the market goes down take position as you will laugh by late 2013 / early 2014 when the chips are down. The incoming have to undo the wrongs like IDP, ethnicity. ICC ? The world is watching, all wil be well, we pray. This is a non resident foreigner point of view. Quite right. 2007 was majorly a failure of functioning institutions which the new constitution seems to be curing. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
|
I'm still surprised the market is performing this well. I thought with whats happening on the world level Kenya would be affected.Do you think the market will continue to defy whats happening internationally? Although I'm also of the idea that it might do better because investors might flock to alternative markets like ours. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
|
This begs the question(s) what are the consequences to us as investors for a president
1. Uhuru .... or
2. Raila .... or
3. Ruto..... or
4. Kalonzo ....or
5 Musalia... or
6 etc.
whom among the above if elected will make the stock exchange raise immediately
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
|
Bases on what performance as president and/or investor and consumer confidence in the president? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
|
The market will favour a status quo president thats uhuru,kalonzo,mudavadi,wamalwa but it will be surprised on how to judge raila. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
|
I can see the logic in that. Assuming raila won't get in who do you think can make the market perform better or worse and why? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
|
mlennyma wrote:The market will favour a status quo president thats uhuru,kalonzo,mudavadi,wamalwa but it will be surprised on how to judge raila. My thinking i might be wrong as i think the market might shrink on Uhuru/Ruto presidency for a while as they wait to see if there will be a backlash from the western countries (sanctions). I agree with your view about a Raila presidency and I also think this might be the case for Kalonzo... on status quo it might favour Musalia. Though Personally I cannot vote for him.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
As long as those starring on the ICC list don't attain the high seat, Mr Market's sentiments will remain intact. A Mudavadi win will likely be more bullish. If you like studying patterns, one can clearly see that former VPs end up as KE presidents. If MK was to be upfront, he'd endorse Musalia for both political & economical stability. At a time when KE & EA have discovered potential hydrocarbons as well as other mineral resources, the president needs to be familiar with Land Economics. And Musalia has that in hand. He also has a calm demeanour like MK. That's what my political crystal ball is showing me... Godspeed to KE  Update - forgot to put reference - http://www.whoswho.co.ke/musalia-mudavadi$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
|
If kenyans can reason and put a compromise preso mr mudavadi,we can recover another 5yrs as we learn him. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
We have been in a Bull Trend all Year as has the rest of Africa and i have seen nothing to shake this Trend. Foreign Investors have been the Drivers as they have increased Allocation to Africa from egregiously underweight to less egregiously underweight. Domestic investors have been sidelined expecting a Poor Performance ahead of the General elections but they will have to be herded in or their Performances will see a Haemmoraging of Funds under Management. Rich - I concur
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
|
A Musalia presidency is what this market needs. I like the sentiments echoed by @Hisah and @ mlenny. They say new brooms sweep clean. A new leader brings with him renewed hope and optimism,just what the stock markets crave for. We may just see a repeat of 2003! Cant wait to see simba at 40, mpesa at 6, ARM at 300! Lets vote wisely! @SufficientlyP
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
|
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:A Musalia presidency is what this market needs. I like the sentiments echoed by @Hisah and @ mlenny.
They say new brooms sweep clean. A new leader brings with him renewed hope and optimism,just what the stock markets crave for. We may just see a repeat of 2003! Cant wait to see simba at 40, mpesa at 6, ARM at 300! Lets vote wisely! I dont think so, it will only be temporally for the good of the country... if you remember former President Moi seen to be naive and easy to manipulate then what happen after starting so well? you know better even central province was isolated..... Okay another case MM is not his own man.. he really doesnt know what he wants for this country, he has no agenda for this country.... the players are a small group of billionaires behind the scenes who want their interests to be protected noting they cannot go the UK way for fear of sanctions...now that will be a puppet president whom i cant vote for, i might be standing alone against a puppet.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
|
I wouldn't exactly brand Mudavadi a 'new broom' GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
|
@Jamani,you cant compare MM with M O One. The latter didnt have any schooling to write home about. Read @ Hisah's comments about MMs CV. BTW,Kibs was always referred to as the weakling,just like MM but look at where we are 10years down the line. What we need right now is a sober,concensus building guy,who will build bridges and unite Kenyans,not a Western puppet or a heckler! @SufficientlyP
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
|
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:I wouldn't exactly brand Mudavadi a 'new broom' We can make him one!  @SufficientlyP
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
|
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:@Jamani,you cant compare MM with M O One. The latter didnt have any schooling to write home about. Read @ Hisah's comments about MMs CV. BTW,Kibs was always referred to as the weakling,just like MM but look at where we are 10years down the line. What we need right now is a sober,concensus building guy,who will build bridges and unite Kenyans,not a Western puppet or a heckler! Leadership is not about schooling or beautiful pages of CVs if you think it is check Zimbabwe...MM has nothing in himself as a leader ni mtu wa kuskumwa haana msimo hata kidogo. Even in his own western turf he cannot marshall numbers, he is supposed to be controlling Bungoma, Busia and kakamega but has problems even in his Kakamega and he is left with half Vihiga. Look at UK and what he controls, Ruto and what he controls, Raila and what he controls .... MM? he is waiting for the courts to decide the fate of Uk and Ruto huyu ni kiongozi wa aingani? one on one between MM and Kibs.. Kibs is better by far haoni number, he is a bogus leader just ask people from Mululu, between Mr Akaranga former MP and MM who to them stands out.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
|
Yes we do need a leader not just a figurehead. But considering how complicated the world is and is becoming don't we also want someone who can understand these complications and help the country maneuver through them. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
|
ChessMaster wrote:Yes we do need a leader not just a figurehead. But considering how complicated the world is and is becoming don't we also want someone who can understand these complications and help the country maneuver through them. That person cannot be Mudavadi...
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Stocks/ Security and elections 2013.
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|