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Timing the market
Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/22/2010 Posts: 17 Location: rbi
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What do you think of someone who wants to hold his 1 million until just 1 week to election, buy stock and wait after election and sell theme for an abnormal profit( assuming no PEV)?. Kenyans fear elections and so the market prices will nearly half by election date and will recover in 2 to 3 months.  “Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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There was a Merchant in Wazua who once said:
...do not time the market, give the market time.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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Hehe..that was me.That still holds true.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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kiio wrote:What do you think of someone who wants to hold his 1 million until just 1 week to election, buy stock and wait after election and sell theme for an abnormal profit( assuming no PEV)?. Kenyans fear elections and so the market prices will nearly half by election date and will recover in 2 to 3 months. Sounds like you own a crystal ball! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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Specifically, I am more worried about MRC and their threat to elections n peace n tourism n msa port, economy.
This thing needs urgent resolution b4 it takes an extremist shape and form.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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Do it then tell us what happened A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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MRC cannot managed where SLDF failed. This is Kenya bwana hakuna matata Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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kiio wrote:What do you think of someone who wants to hold his 1 million until just 1 week to election, buy stock and wait after election and sell theme for an abnormal profit( assuming no PEV)?. Kenyans fear elections and so the market prices will nearly half by election date and will recover in 2 to 3 months. please do it. We want to learn from your experience! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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It can go either way. Some guys tried that during the referendum na ilibafu! The market rallied na watu wakashangaa! Plus you also need to take into account the effect of monetary easing on the performance of the stock market. Do you still expect the CBR to be at 16.5 p.c 1 week to election time? All in all, one never knows... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/22/2010 Posts: 17 Location: rbi
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if you look at the prices of most of the stocks in the two days before the referendum and two weeks later, you will see what i mean. about MRC, that hot air. when it comes to stock there is realty nothing new, it is that we tend to forget too first. “Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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kiio wrote:What do you think of someone who wants to hold his 1 million until just 1 week to election, buy stock and wait after election and sell theme for an abnormal profit( assuming no PEV)?. Kenyans fear elections and so the market prices will nearly half by election date and will recover in 2 to 3 months. In the stock market, investors make money by doing the opposite of what others are doing/herd mentality. I can tell you @Kiio, all "investors" will try to pull that stunt. It worked for me in 2002/2003 and backfired on me in 2007/2008. The main reason was that the ignorance level 10 years ago was much more than in 2007/2008. We had an inefficient(weak market) with very little access to information then. Even the CDSC wasn't born.  (Maybe someone like @VVS,@Jamani should start a thread called...Back in the day NSEwise) But in 2007/2008, we had close to what i'd call a strong (Efficient)market with lots of access to info, ceteris paribus@SufficientlyP
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/22/2010 Posts: 17 Location: rbi
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i din't disparage with you Ngamia, but look at it from common mwananchi and foregn investers, (as kenya has very fews sophisticated investers )view, do you think they are will ing to put there money in NSE in KENYA during an election period? “Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/22/2010 Posts: 17 Location: rbi
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I don't disagree with you Ngamia, but look at it from common mwananchi and foreign investors view, (as Kenya has very few sophisticated investors )view, do you think they are willing to put there money in NSE in KENYA during an election period? and the wave thing in Kenya only works in IPO, when investing in it becomes the days hot NEWS. “Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:kiio wrote:What do you think of someone who wants to hold his 1 million until just 1 week to election, buy stock and wait after election and sell theme for an abnormal profit( assuming no PEV)?. Kenyans fear elections and so the market prices will nearly half by election date and will recover in 2 to 3 months. In the stock market, investors make money by doing the opposite of what others are doing/herd mentality. I can tell you @Kiio, all "investors" will try to pull that stunt. It worked for me in 2002/2003 and backfired on me in 2007/2008. The main reason was that the ignorance level 10 years ago was much more than in 2007/2008. We had an inefficient(weak market) with very little access to information then. Even the CDSC wasn't born. (Maybe someone like @VVS,@Jamani should start a thread called...Back in the day NSEwise) But in 2007/2008, we had close to what i'd call a strong (Efficient)market with lots of access to info, ceteris paribus @Sufficiently, I think the reason why it backfired in 2007/8 is because, after the peaceful transition of 2002,nobody was expecting/fearing things would go wrong in 2007. Everyone was optimistic of a peaceful election. Now, we are back in the pre-2002 political mood. I'm not very optimistic and i would guess majority of the people would share the same. Majority of investors won't be buying as the elections draw closer. The backfiring of 2007 had nothing to do with efficient market,but the general mood of optimism. I will start buying in batches two months before elections.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Well @Kiio and @Mkeiyd, i hope you understand/appreciate that the more a market becomes sophisticated,(read more efficient), the harder it is to arbitrage as info is more public and investors more informed. People would not even be talking about the Mworias as is the case in another thread here. but your points on foreign participation and the 2007/2008 PEV are spot on and true. that's why i said in my closing remarks, ceteris paribus, meaning other factors held constant. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/22/2010 Posts: 17 Location: rbi
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StatMeister wrote:Do it then tell us what happened sure i will remind you, and am sure i will be smiling and you will be regretting. “Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
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