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Target for 2014 100%, 150%, 200%?
Aguytrying
#1 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 10:22:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I looking to double my money by 2014, helped by the expected low share prices that normally occurs before elections(or has it already occurred?)
and the correction expected thereafter. not to mention the very bright economic growth prospects of various sectors.

My question is: Is 100% too small a target?
This is a once in 5 yr opportunity maybe even more with all the macro-economic factors and uncertainty in Europe debt. This could be a period of good luck/fortune to the wise investors.
I feel like i should be targeting more. say 150-200%.
Take Uchumi stock for example 160% odd percent gain from nowhere. It makes me think i should aim higher towards 2014.
Which stocks are able/likely to pull this off(if any) by 2014.

regards.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 12:50:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
These are just some of the opportunities on the NSE...

KCB.. 2012 price = 23bob.. 2014 price = 78bob.. A 263% increase

Kenya re.. 2012 price = 12.75bob.. 2014 price = 51bob.. A 300% increase

BAT.. 2012 price = 333bob.. 2014 price = 950bob.. A 180% increase...

IMHO... smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#3 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:26:06 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, I see your love affair with Kenya-RE is back on. Jubilee will not be pleased;-)

Aguytrying, I honestly don't think you are being unrealistic. The scope for growth is huge. Keep an eye on companies with Pan-African ambitions...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
guru267
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 6:35:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
guru, I see your love affair with Kenya-RE is back on. Jubilee will not be pleased;-)


@youcant im just trying to be obejective...

Jub has a P/E of 6 and a price/book of 1.75

Kenya Re has a P/E of 4 and a price/book of 0.66

With Kenya Re's stellar fundamentals, improving management, rebranding, and growing profits I wouldnt mind including it in my portfolio alongside jubilee...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:52:31 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
I would go with Kengen 8.50 to 21 half-year growth in profits 30% before power tariff review and commissioning of new power plants

NIC post rights 25.75 to 62/= EPS has more than doubled in last three years so in 2014 with EPS 11 and P/E of 8=88

Mumias likely to go back to 13 in 2014 and KCB 60/= My 2cents
the deal
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 9:05:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I see a lot of wet dreams on this thread...I see the Uchumi take off has driven people insaneLaughing out loudly
sparkly
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 10:37:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
We are firmly in the saddle, riding the bull. Super exuberance!
Life is short. Live passionately.
Cde Monomotapa
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:33:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
smile
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:18:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Thanks all. I see the next years as a huge opportunity for tremendous capital gains.

I've also looked at KCB.current pe 3.72. with only 2 years of 20%(very modest estimate) growth pe should be at 5.4. with a PE of 10 = 54.00. Around 150% gain. I like.

The deal just make fun, there are hidden gems somewhere. just need to find them.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:25:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:

I've also looked at KCB.current eps 3.72. with only 2 years of 20%(very modest estimate) growth eps should be at 5.4. with a PE of 10 = 54.00. Around 150% gain. I like.


Very modest estimates indeed.. The out going Chairman Muthoka claims 2012 eps will be around 5.2 (40% growth from 3.72)...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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