I have a theory!

If an article appearing in the Star Newspaper on 26 September 2011 is to be believed, the Thika Super Highway will cost at least Sh 27 billion. Price variations are expected considering that the exchange rate to the USD was 70 when the project started.

There is no doubt that funding of the project contributed to the deterioration of the Kes as well as inflation.

When the Thika Road was selected for expansion, there was intense debate about whether Mombasa Highway did not deserve that honour. The arguments varied from the number of commuters that use Thika Road to regional interest by Kibaki's inner circle. There is no doubt that for example, Thika Super Highway has increased the value of the Kenyatta family land around Juja by at least 10 times.

However, that is not the thrust of my theory. In fact I believe that the Government selected Thika Road in order to open up the Northern Corridor and with an eye on oil exports through Lamu. Tourism and tapping Ethiopias 80 million strong market also comes to mind. Every other benefit derived by the neighbouring communities is a by product.

I have been informed by regular road users that when it rains, sections of the highway are converted into an attraction either in form of a river or a waterfall depending on where you are looking at the road from.

My theory is that Thika Superhighway is Kenya's biggest river/water harvesting resource at the moment and that drainage planned for the highway is inadequate. One would have hoped for pipes underneath the highway for harvesting the water but alas, our engineers did not disappoint. If this water remains unattended, sections of the road will require repair in less than 3 years time. Accidents black spots will emerge and the risk of flooding out some home owners can not be ruled out.

Considering that the road will eventually be concessioned with commuters expected to pay to use it, why would the government not want to benefit more from this road? I have in mind canals, merging into a major canal/river and onto a huge dam. The water so harvested would serve Nairobi, Thika and possibly Athi River. The old quarries south of Juja come to mind as a location for the dam. Again, irrigation would be achieved for families living along the canals. The overflow from the dam could be channelled to cliffy sections of Athi River where arguably, Kengen could install turbines to tap electricity. My pesa nane...but again, I could be wrong!

@accelrisk..you make very interesting inferences particularly the escalation in value of the Kenyatta family land, notwithstanding the conspiracy theory(s) there in.

The cost of the project will definitely exceed 30B because of variations of costs, materials and works. The weak shillingi last year, fuel price increase, tar price increase, rise in steel costs etc.

I have always wondered why Mombasa and outer-ring raods were overlooked and to my mind have similar if not worse traffic congestion as Thika road. Mind you, Outer-ring road and Mombasa road serve more densely populated areas and have more people on teh road (not cars) than Thika road and so if one talks of lost man hours the jam on outer-ring road is even worse. However I believe some sections of Thika road warranted expansion - basically current works up to Githurai. After that, the road should have remained at 3 lanes either side up to Juja and after Juja 2 lanes. All flyovers/ interchanges through to Thika were warranted. The extra funds from the largese from Githurai to Thika should have been channeled to Mombasa road - Nyayo stadium to University way junction and outer-ring road. Otherwise as it stands, I find most of the project after Githurai extravagant and sub optimal use of scarce funds.

I also worry about the economic multiplier effect of this project. I posit that on per shilling basis the multiplier effect must be very low. It's one thing to put up infrastructure - the real value comes in form of inputs that go to putting up infrastructure. In this case almost all inputs are imported save for cheap labour, gravel and murram. I also await a mad civil servant / politician who believes they have brass balls to attempt to toll the road. Thika highway is the kind of projects we pay taxes for, thus someone can't look at them as favors to the citizenry.

@kausha outering road feeds into thika road so they are interlinked. that said plans are under way to dual it and roadside traders have been notified.
as for Msa road it was meant to be done uhuru highway to Jkia before US worldbank balked. same thing with southern bypass that the Chinese took over.
I think we should stop the thinly veiled conspiracy and look at the bigger picture. thika road goes to Isiolo read lapset, it also goes to Ethiopia a landlocked country of 80m, it also goes to Somalia our soon to be strategic neighbour . that's why it has express lanes and 'githurai' lanes
also consider that Kenya as we know it today is due to the railway built over 100years ago so infrastructure has so many unquantifiable sequale

@digitek & A4arch.., I am not opposed to the project nor am I politicizing, I am just ordinary folk who doesn't take everything from government as gospel and from experience and with all due respect, I have come to cast huge doubts on our leadership, our so called experts and generally our seniors running the show. They keep getting too many things wrong for me to give them the benefit of doubt.

Let's debunk the logic of the lost man hours. I posit that the guys on Outer-ring road are more in any vehicle on average than those on Thika road. I also posit that the people on Mombasa road and the goods on that road are more than those on Thika road and most importantly cost a lot more, in cost of goods and opportunity cost of business/remunuration wasted by men stuck on Mombasa road every morning. Even after expanding the road the cars on Thika road appear to be joining the snarl ups on Uhuru highway and Outer ring road suggesting that we probably are only saving 10-20 shillings per day/man/car on the highway. That is why I was arguing you can not fix Thika road in isolation without addressing Outer - ring road and Uhuru highway concurrently. Mombasa road could be a lot worse were it not for the by passes at south C, South B, Landies and Enterprise but for how long?

Let us also throw out that Isiolo, Ethopia discussion outside unless we are dualing Kenol to makutano. Your surely don't expect people to move from Adis by road to nairobi are we? Marsabit alone is 582KM from Nairobi while Mombasa is 490km. Moyale is 782km!!! As for Lapset, there is no road planned for that project, it's a pipeline, railway and fibre from Lamu to Duala cameroon, funded by the Chinese to move raw materials from Africa to wherever....if this project will cost 2 trillion over the next 10 years where is the first 100B from GoK?

@kausha..
lets try to analyze the priority in the most rudimentary way..

Which road in Nairobi has/had the most jam btn Thika road and Mombasa road?

I have spend many hours stuck on Thika road than on Mombasa road before.
Mombasa road has a few arteries such as the Southern Bypass to Langata road and the Eastern Bypass to Kangundo road.

At speed limit of 50kph which is about 30mph and speed bumps all over. I don't think it can be classified as " a super highway"

So what are you saying?

Having a bigger road than the present day requirement is planning ahead. You don't expect there to be construction of Thika highway every 10 years when demand goes up.
Thika road traffic jams were incomparable hence the priority.
I also heard the road minister talk of the overpass on Uhuru highway coming up soon and they sought financing after WB brought issues with the Russian guy.
Outering will be expanded in the near future to a dual carriage.
All in all, things are looking up.