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Is Safaricom responsible?
GenghisCapitalLtd
#1 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 12:20:14 PM

Rank: Bona-fide

Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/tjjsm9/-/index.html

What an interesting read but I tend to agree with the Governor on this...
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MaichBlack
#2 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 2:44:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,838
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/M+Pesa+linked+to+rise+in+inflation/-/539552/1327538/-/tjjsm9/-/index.html

What an interesting read but I tend to agree with the Governor on this...

This is what I classify as bullcrap research!!!

My two year old daughter will tell you that the two primary causes of inflation are increase in the supply of money and/or decrease in the goods available for sale.

M-Pesa doesn't increase the total amount of money in our hands. It just makes it easier to transfer money from one hand to another. How does this cause inflation?

The bulk of money transfered is business - oriented. Will a business spend money on things they had not planned just because they recieved it by M-Pesa?

If you wanted to give your grandmother 5k, you would still have done it even if there was no M-Pesa. M-Pesa just makes it easier to send her the money. Furthermore, the fact that your grandmother now has 5k more to spend means you have 5k less to spend!!!

Armchair researchers!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Kihangeri
#3 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 3:11:16 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 11/10/2010
Posts: 550
Location: Junction
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/M+Pesa+linked+to+rise+in+inflation/-/539552/1327538/-/tjjsm9/-/index.html

What an interesting read but I tend to agree with the Governor on this...



@Genghis...No wonder the capital you manage has been doing so badly.

If you cannot make a simple connection such as "Furthermore, the fact that your grandmother now has 5k more to spend means you have 5k less to spend!!!

Armchair researchers!!! "

The time you end up with Inflation causing money is when the money is generated without being backed by gold, services or commodities available in the market or when paper money is issued. The only other extreme cases include capital flight, money laundering etc.

By the way, do our politicians know the level of inflation late last year in Uganda, Tanzania and other African countries in the league of Kenya economically or they are also armchair economists? Some
By inference, the man is all that Mr Phantom is not: an untrustworthy radical, divisive, too many enemies, a dictator, and a persistent liar...
Gaitho dialogues.


GenghisCapitalLtd
#4 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 3:35:07 PM

Rank: Bona-fide

Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/M+Pesa+linked+to+rise+in+inflation/-/539552/1327538/-/tjjsm9/-/index.html

What an interesting read but I tend to agree with the Governor on this...

This is what I classify as bullcrap research!!!

My two year old daughter will tell you that the two primary causes of inflation are increase in the supply of money and/or decrease in the goods available for sale.

M-Pesa doesn't increase the total amount of money in our hands. It just makes it easier to transfer money from one hand to another. How does this cause inflation?

The bulk of money transfered is business - oriented. Will a business spend money on things they had not planned just because they recieved it by M-Pesa?

If you wanted to give your grandmother 5k, you would still have done it even if there was no M-Pesa. M-Pesa just makes it easier to send her the money. Furthermore, the fact that your grandmother now has 5k more to spend means you have 5k less to spend!!!

Armchair researchers!!!

MaichBlack isn't it worrying that University Lecturers actually agree with this theory? What does that say about our state of tertiary education?
@Kihangeri I just mentioned that it was an interesting read not that I support the research. As i wrote above I do support the governor who stated that MPESA only increases the frequency and not the supply of money incirculation. My Capital is not doing too bad my friend!!
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
selah
#5 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 3:41:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
I haven't read the article but it reminds me of a Kiambu police officer who blamed increased carjacking incidents on smooth roads...its as if he wanted the road to be filled with potholes to contain carjacking.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
GenghisCapitalLtd
#6 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 3:43:04 PM

Rank: Bona-fide

Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
I haven't read the article but it reminds me of a Kiambu police officer who blamed increased carjacking incidents on smooth roads...its as if he wanted the road to be filled with potholes to contain carjacking.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
Wakanyugi
#7 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 3:53:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
@Maichblack and Kihangeri: Don't be in a hurry to condemn Gengis Khan.

The speed of money can cause temporary inflation, especially in an inefficient market economy like ours. Here is how:

The transaction we call demand and supply is dependent on matching goods/services on the one hand with people’s capacity to consume on the other. The key enabler of consumption (demand) is money. Money usually shows up in our pockets at fairly defined time periods - in Kenya ours is largely an end of month economy. The producers of goods and services have set their systems to match that cycle, and usually can not change the cycle at short notice.

What happens when a system comes a long that can force the money to appear at different time periods?

By increasing the speed at which money transits through the economy, systems like M-pesa can enable large concentrations of money out of phase with economic production - that is at times when the requisite goods are not in market yet, even though the holders of the money have capacity to buy. This leads to a temporary rise in prices.

Back to our inefficient market, the rise in prices is not always followed by a commensurate fall when goods become available, ergo, inflation.

Before you shout rink! let me give you an example instead: the behavior of the price of sugar over the past few years, has not always had a cause in shortages or even speculation. Sugar consumption in Kenya is now virtually an inelastic good, the poor get over 50% of their calories from sugar. It is a candidate for such M-pesa type inflation
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
selah
#8 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 4:20:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
when we have faster processing of transactions I think thats a plus ,developed countries have systems that allow faster especially online.

The inflation we were/are facing was mostly imported inflation where fuel and the import bill was getting out of hand.

To blame inflation on an efficient system is somehow laughable in that when you access your cash in a bank you are not restricted from withdrawing further more ATMs are more efficient than MPesa.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
MaichBlack
#9 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 4:25:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,838
Wakanyugi wrote:
@Maichblack and Kihangeri: Don't be in a hurry to condemn Gengis Khan.

The speed of money can cause temporary inflation, especially in an inefficient market economy like ours. Here is how:

The transaction we call demand and supply is dependent on matching goods/services on the one hand with people’s capacity to consume on the other. The key enabler of consumption (demand) is money. Money usually shows up in our pockets at fairly defined time periods - in Kenya ours is largely an end of month economy. The producers of goods and services have set their systems to match that cycle, and usually can not change the cycle at short notice.

What happens when a system comes a long that can force the money to appear at different time periods?

By increasing the speed at which money transits through the economy, systems like M-pesa can enable large concentrations of money out of phase with economic production - that is at times when the requisite goods are not in market yet, even though the holders of the money have capacity to buy. This leads to a temporary rise in prices.

Back to our inefficient market, the rise in prices is not always followed by a commensurate fall when goods become available, ergo, inflation.

Before you shout rink! let me give you an example instead: the behavior of the price of sugar over the past few years, has not always had a cause in shortages or even speculation. Sugar consumption in Kenya is now virtually an inelastic good, the poor get over 50% of their calories from sugar. It is a candidate for such M-pesa type inflation

1) I'm not condeming @Gengis Khan. I'm condeming the "researchers". In this case @Gengis Khan was just a messenger. I'm not in the habit of shooting the messenger. Actually, if I'm not mistaken, @Gengis Khan holds an opinion similar to mine.

2) Your argument doesn't make any sense - at least not to me! If I normally get money at the end of the month, how will MPesa make money appear suddenly "out of phase"? Where is the money coming from? The money must come from another individual - not from Safaricom or the technology! Now, is this individual giving me the money because MPesa exists or because we had an agreement [independent of the technology] and we just decided to use MPesa as a medium of transfer?

You must have been a student of one of the lecturers @Gengis Khan is talking about!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
mkeiy
#10 Posted : Monday, February 20, 2012 4:27:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/27/2012
Posts: 851
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/M+Pesa+linked+to+rise+in+inflation/-/539552/1327538/-/tjjsm9/-/index.html

What an interesting read but I tend to agree with the Governor on this...

This is what I classify as bullcrap research!!!

My two year old daughter will tell you that the two primary causes of inflation are increase in the supply of money and/or decrease in the goods available for sale.

M-Pesa doesn't increase the total amount of money in our hands. It just makes it easier to transfer money from one hand to another. How does this cause inflation?

The bulk of money transfered is business - oriented. Will a business spend money on things they had not planned just because they recieved it by M-Pesa?

If you wanted to give your grandmother 5k, you would still have done it even if there was no M-Pesa. M-Pesa just makes it easier to send her the money. Furthermore, the fact that your grandmother now has 5k more to spend means you have 5k less to spend!!!

Armchair researchers!!!


To some extend,Mpesa does fuel inflation. It makes money readily available to spend. With the advent of Mpesa,having a phone is almost like having cash with you.The convenience of Mpesa has enabled money transfers [purchases] which otherwise,would not have occurred. .A shilling changing hands a thousand times, is as good as a thousand bob. Hence "increase".
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