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KQ- Can it get any worse?
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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someone once posted a thread on negative growth....in the same line of thought...on the rebound...looking at the battering KQ has taken on the NSE closing at Ksh. 23/= today and even with a profit warning being issued,in your view,can it get any worse than it is?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Of course it can get worse but on a probability scale I would think things will improve. Only 28% forward hedge at higher prices for through Dec 2009. Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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Judging from price reaction to quarter 1 results as well as bookclosures,AGMs and dividend payouts thus far...market pricing of stocks is totally hinged on a collective trend..if general market is up..all counters with nothing outside expectations go up...if down..the counters go down.. regardless of announcement made.. Spread buy.
DISCLAIMER: This is the opinion of one Jammo,CFA,CPA,Opinionated and Loud,based in nairobi. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the data to be as most factual n logical,he doesn't accept any responsibility of accuracy or completeness of info contained herein..neither does he purport to be a genius!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/5/2009 Posts: 181
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It got worse a while back,i remember the boarding call sounded at Ksh 17 thereabouts,currently thats a tidy profit of around 33% net of brokers cost. I aint selling though,im getting out at Ksh 25 in readiness for the down plunge.
The Hedonist
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90
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Lyanne,Good for you - I also got on between 16.50 to 17.00. I might just join you in selling but I am thinking - may be this is one share that one should be buying for the long term. Tourism will not always be down and the GFC is showing signs of ending. Where do you think the price will be 5 years from now?
Men occasionally stumble over the truth,but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/5/2009 Posts: 181
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@ Magnetic,no one can accurately tell where a stock will be 5 yrs from now especially airline stocks,they are good for reaping dividends and speculating but not fo long term.
Again as the Sage of Omaha has shown,he doenst really go for airline stocks due to their volatility,remember this stock was once trading at Ksh 142.
Go for blue chips especially now that pple are dumping them,you will reap well into 2012,remember theres a DISCOUNT SALE at NSE !!
The Hedonist
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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People forget that today's junk is often tomorrow's blue chip. - Mike Milken The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2008 Posts: 118
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We have seen the worst of this stock so far. i had made a purchase order @130 in 2006 but cancelled before it was effected. May be the future will be bright with the arrival of dream liners in 2-3years.
What if the co. posts a loss and no dividends in the current year!
'Success is the progressive realization of a worthy ideal...if you will only do each day the things you know you should do each day and do them as successfully as you possible can,you can rest assured that you will be successful all the years of your life.'
Earl Nightingale
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Goals: Loss in a big no,the profits have reduced just a bit!!!! Make money.....then you will enjoy all the fine things in life!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2008 Posts: 118
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Lets wait for announcements,major airlines have posted losses.
Will this stock ever consider splitting?
Fear sees obstacles,Faith sees opportunities
Fear sees problems,Faith sees possibilities
Fear sees stumbling blocks,Faith sees stepping-stones!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/5/2009 Posts: 181
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@ Goals,i dont think its feasible to split the stock,for now the market downturn has produced splits and bargains in so many counters.
You actually dont need to aim,you just shoot and make a kill. Two years from now you'll be smilling and ululating to the bank.
The Hedonist
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2008 Posts: 118
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i am holding on this counter for the long term.
Fear sees obstacles,Faith sees opportunities
Fear sees problems,Faith sees possibilities
Fear sees stumbling blocks,Faith sees stepping-stones!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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KQ historical P/E ratio placed at 2.75! Its average Commercial and Services sector P/E is sitting at close to three times this - 9.03.
KQ hit lows of Ksh. 17/= when investor sentiment was at its lowest ebb. Sellers at those prices will now be very hard to come by. In my view,desperation has been followed by stabilisation giving room for investors and some speculators to now come in.
Negative effects of hedging,Delta's competition and reduced tourist numbers are banging this counter. Outside my AccessKenya and EB areas,this is one palce where it seems there is lots of room for upward share price mobility.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Well,now we know... though the price dropped to 17 but back up to 24. Will higher oil prices help with the hedges? Probably. Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Good stuff,walking the talk with the launch of new flights to Botswana...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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They need more planes for expansion but the 787s are delayed. On the other hand they can buy/lease planes much cheaper during the downturn. Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/16/2007 Posts: 1,320
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Yes. ..... the sons of Zeruiah .....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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@MtuBiz,if you on about the strike,Kenya Airways has allayed the strike fears...http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/Local/Kenya-Airways-allays-strike-fears-2756.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2008 Posts: 238
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The Strike,the hedging,Fuel cost... eish.. can't getter better.. Waiting for it @20 side of the price!!
if the incompetent and the reckless compete,the result is a disaster.. MN
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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patience pays but not when you only wait.
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KQ- Can it get any worse?
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