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Earnings Expectations Fever
GenghisCapitalLtd
#1 Posted : Tuesday, November 08, 2011 10:28:48 PM

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Wazuans,

I think we all have caught the EE bug waiting and anticipating the Centum and Safaricom results to be announced tomorrow. I know you are, seen the activity in the market despite the hitch in the early hours of the day. Centum up 1.27% to 15.9 and Safaricom trading flat at 3.

What are your expectations? Do you have more confidence in Centum's performance than Safaricom? Do you feel Safaricom's results will be good? Or exceptional?

Let me know your opinions guys. Gdnyt and will update you on both as I will be there in person on both occasions. Centum's occasion will be at Serena hotel. smile
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the deal
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 08, 2011 10:52:21 PM
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Both of them to dissapoint tomorrow with flat/drop in earnings, nothing to anticipate!
the deal
#3 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 10:34:14 AM
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the deal wrote:
Both of them to dissapoint tomorrow with flat/drop in earnings, nothing to anticipate!

one is out of the way now to Safcom
QW25081985
#4 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 10:43:23 AM
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Safcom will Not be in a loss but results will be soft....
GenghisCapitalLtd
#5 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 11:45:09 AM

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We are of the view that Centum did quite well considering the situation of the economy. It came up with a defensive strategy to liquidate its holdings in the NSE from 26% as at March 2011 to 9% as it stands today. James Mworia used this as a justification of his firm's performance stating that the Centum quoted equity holdings lost 7% compared to the 16% loss in the NSE, is that a good enough argument of defending the performance? The firm has now turned its eye into the real estate or property market with various projects in the offing in Kenya and Uganda. Involvement of professionals like GAAP (South African firm) have been mentioned with no shilling spared to hire the best so as to mitigate any development risk encountered.The outlook is exciting.
I, personally expect Safaricom to deliver positive results. They will be good but not exceptional. Expect Data and MPESA to contribute more to the top line, voice will still be the main revenue earner though its contribution will decline to around 55% compared to last year which was over 63% of total revenue. Can't wait for 3pm!
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#6 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 11:46:55 AM

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On another note Centum is offing on an investment through listing it on the NSE soon, any idea what that investment/company is?
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Mainat
#7 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 11:47:42 AM
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Most likely this is UAP
Sehemu ndio nyumba
GenghisCapitalLtd
#8 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 11:54:20 AM

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Mainat wrote:
Most likely this is UAP

@Mainat I'm with you on that one Applause , do you think the listing will be done within the year and is the appetite there?
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Mainat
#9 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 11:58:54 AM
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According to Joe Wanjui, UAP was targeting December 2011. Lakini Family Bank talked about October and we are now in November, so I'd take that with a pinch of salt.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
the deal
#10 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 3:59:22 PM
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the deal wrote:
the deal wrote:
Both of them to dissapoint tomorrow with flat/drop in earnings, nothing to anticipate!

one is out of the way now to Safcom


Lesson of the Day: Never argue with a ContrarianApplause Applause Applause
GenghisCapitalLtd
#11 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 6:11:04 PM

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@the deal excellent anticipation point to note is Bob Collymore and his team did try to put on a brave face.
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
the deal
#12 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 8:08:09 PM
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GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
@the deal excellent anticipation point to note is Bob Collymore and his team did try to put on a brave face.

lol safcom did cut its marketing costs by 24% what does that mean for scan and media houses...lets aniticiqate smile
youcan'tstopusnow
#13 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2011 7:37:53 AM
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GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Most likely this is UAP

@Mainat I'm with you on that one Applause , do you think the listing will be done within the year and is the appetite there?


Quoting bdafrica:

The firm is also set to sell its stake in two other companies, which Mr Mworia declined to reveal. He, however, ruled out sale of its 24 per cent stake at UAP as was reported in the media, saying that the company which intends to list on Nairobi Stock Exchange was a long-term hold.

http://www.businessdaily...-/11ds0rtz/-/index.html

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
GenghisCapitalLtd
#14 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 3:06:15 PM

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Now that the Safcom results anticipation is over I think we can focus on the banking sector as we only have CfC, StanChart and NIC to go. The banks have reported varied results with NBK reporting a decline of 9% in PAT though grew its loan book by an astonishing 52%. I am of the opinion that StanChart will have similar results to BBK in that an increase in PAT but a decline in interest income which is worrying. CfC and NIC will have good results at par with its peers. What you think?
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#15 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 3:11:51 PM

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Forgot to mention that CBA have increased their deposit/savings rate to 10%, is this the new turf that banks have to fight over?
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
muganda
#16 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 5:24:35 PM
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Hmmn appreciated @GenghisCapitalLtd. Really think the CBA deposit/savings rate is very encouraging at 10% and it's definitely www.timeformore.com

Quite frustrated with NIC; everything shows it should trade higher but this counter just doesn't have the X-factor.

SCB on the other hand has attractive dividend yield but confusing. When did they loose all that efficiency and smarts? HY saw them 14% down and cost-income 15 points down to 58%. Maybe they became distracted moving to new HQ...


Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#17 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 8:20:30 PM
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the deal wrote:
Both of them to dissapoint tomorrow with flat/drop in earnings, nothing to anticipate!

Great predictions there!Applause Applause Applause
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#18 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 8:38:29 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2010
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Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Now that the Safcom results anticipation is over I think we can focus on the banking sector as we only have CfC, StanChart and NIC to go. The banks have reported varied results with NBK reporting a decline of 9% in PAT though grew its loan book by an astonishing 52%. I am of the opinion that StanChart will have similar results to BBK in that an increase in PAT but a decline in interest income which is worrying. CfC and NIC will have good results at par with its peers. What you think?

NIC should announce in 2 weeks time. Last year, they announced their Q3 results on 25th Nov, their EPS going up by 68% vs Q3 2009. This time i'd put them in the 30% range owing to a difficult operating environment this year.
And lets not forget the Agriculturals. They've had an impressive run this year with impressive coffee & tea prices and a weak shilling to their advantage.
WTK debuts in the week beginning 28th Nov with H1. An EPS of below 70 will be nothing to write home about. Goodies galore hereLaughing out loudly Sasini follows a week later with full year. Anything less then 5 for EPS and no mention of real estate kick off plans will send the stock to sub 10Laughing out loudly
@SufficientlyP
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