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Safaricom: A stock that needs a strong stomach.
selah
#1 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 11:43:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
I think this share is the most jittery share I av ever seen.

YU rebrands and offer new tarrifs on the other hand there is a sell off in the safaricom counter within minutes.

Total demand 393,700
Total supply 4,073,300
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
FUNKY
#2 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 11:49:02 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ selah - any link about the YU rebranding?
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 11:58:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@selah, I have a contrary opinion. If you look at the Safaricom share price over the last 3 months or so it has actually been fairly stable in the 3.80 to 4.00 shilling range.

selah wrote:
I think this share is the most jittery share I av ever seen.

YU rebrands and offer new tarrifs on the other hand there is a sell off in the safaricom counter within minutes.

Total demand 393,700
Total supply 4,073,300

selah
#4 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 12:04:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@Funky They have just unveiled the Offer check the photos from @robertalai account http://twitpic.com/5oy88m

@Mwanahisa it has been stable because the industry was silent, just whenever there is some good news being reported about a competitor the safaricom share dives, minutes after the announcement.

Watch the share this week and see how poorly it will perform.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Insurgent
#5 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 12:25:20 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/6/2010
Posts: 594
selah wrote:
I think this share is the most jittery share I av ever seen.

YU rebrands and offer new tarrifs on the other hand there is a sell off in the safaricom counter within minutes.

Total demand 393,700
Total supply 4,073,300



Free calls all day. Am heading to the nearest outlet for a Yu connection. After they start charging for calls again, I will throw away the sim card. Will I hurt anyone?



"One man gives freely, yet gains even more; another withholds unduly, but comes to poverty. A generous man will prosper; he who refreshes others will himself be refreshed." Rev Canon Karanja.

FUNKY
#6 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 12:52:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
This should be bad news for Airtel as well as most people have Safaricom and Airtel sims now they will shift to Safaricom and Yu sims...people will keep Safaricom due to M-PESA.
Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 12:54:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Safaricom: A stock that needs re-thinking by its holders.
dunkang
#8 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 3:17:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Safaricom: A stock that needs re-thinking by its holders.


Why? This cons are in Corporate Internet for real! Maybe you meant AccessKenya, didn't you?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

FUNKY
#9 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 3:22:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ dunkang - even though they have a strong hold in the corporate data market and M-Pesa,the revenues are not that good as what they were earning from voice. From all the super normal profits they have been making all these years have come from voice.
selah
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 2:18:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Looking at total supply against demand we are going to see an avalanche on this stock this week.

As I said we have a very jittery shareholders in this counter.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
dunkang
#11 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 2:36:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
I think its high time i become a millionaire! By 5th August 2011, I will ensure i scoop Safcon at 3.20, Mumias at 6.00, Total at 20.00 and forget about them for 2 years, then cash in. I believe i'll make at least 150% PROFIT.

Who agrees to that?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

2012
#12 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 3:15:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
I think its high time i become a millionaire! By 5th August 2011, I will ensure i scoop Safcon at 3.20, Mumias at 6.00, Total at 20.00 and forget about them for 2 years, then cash in. I believe i'll make at least 150% PROFIT.

Who agrees to that?


I agree completely that you can make more than 150% profit in 2 yrs. Not very sure about your selection though. Mumias will face stiff compe (read price war) come next year and Total is already bowing to pressure... anyway who am I to doubt. I think my pick would be scom, centum, Kenya Re, Standard Group, Crown Berger and National Bank. KQ for speculation, quite attractive though at the current price.

BBI will solve it
:)
Barrywhite
#13 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 5:02:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 286
Location: Nairobi
I think to state that you could make 150% from NSE in two years is an understatement. I think one can make more; and l am strategising to do exactly that. I tend to agree more with @2012's pick plus or minus one. But oh yes, millionaires can be made and will be made. The million dollar question is will l/you be among them?
The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
2012
#14 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 5:12:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Barrywhite wrote:
I tend to agree more with @2012's pick plus or minus one.


Is the minus one Standard Group or Kenya re? I'd advice you to keep your eye on Standard Group, if your ear is on the ground then you know that they are giving Nation a real run for their money.

As for YU free calls, it sounds too desperate for me. That offer will only attract the youth who will ditch the sim as soon as they resume charging.

BBI will solve it
:)
muganda
#15 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 5:17:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
I sold my Safaricom shares

But only after giving up on the company prospects in the mid-term. In my view, so much has changed since June 2010. Don't get me wrong, it was not perfect then, but the trajectory was very reassuring:
- One of the most results oriented, driven CEOs ruled the helm
- Innovation backed by huge bets was the main stay of the company
- Insiders say the company was just more nimble on its feet, things happened faster
- Company spent less on operating costs (payroll, marketing etc) as percentage of revenue


I dread to compare the anticipated half-year results against prior period. The elephant is ailing yet the industry is in a period of drought.

I could adversely compare net income margin, revenue per employee, bottom line contribution of retail shops & fixed Data, share of voice .... But to cut a long story short, the June 2010 Safaricom was an army, and the modern day Safaricom is a social movement!

QW25071985
#16 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 5:33:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
Yu rebranding ...YELLOW& LEMON GREEN are MTN's THEME COLOURS....I'm smelling a RAT HERE!
hisah
#17 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 8:02:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
selah wrote:
Looking at total supply against demand we are going to see an avalanche on this stock this week.

As I said we have a very jittery shareholders in this counter.



This will be the first bank that I'll buy its shares at 3/- or below

Can people see the bank shaping up smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
savant
#18 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2011 12:37:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/1/2008
Posts: 104
Location: Nairobi
@ 2012 I'd be interested to know why Kenya-re would be one of your picks. I've also been considering stocking up on it for a while now...
Généralement, les gens qui savant peu parlent becoup, et les gens qui savant beaucoup parlent peu.
- Rousseau.
QW25071985
#19 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2011 7:39:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
hisah wrote:
selah wrote:
Looking at total supply against demand we are going to see an avalanche on this stock this week.

As I said we have a very jittery shareholders in this counter.



This will be the first bank that I'll buy its shares at 3/- or below

Can people see the bank shaping up smile


safcom at 3 bob and below...WOW . i lik that
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