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this just in-march inflation hits 9.1%
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kizee1
#1 Posted : Wednesday, March 30, 2011 4:36:44 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
so


the rate hits 9pct up from 6.54pct main rise from..you guessed it pump prices!..so the buck stops somewea btwn nock and cbk....
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Sober
#2 Posted : Wednesday, March 30, 2011 10:11:00 PM
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Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
where are we headed?
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Wednesday, March 30, 2011 10:15:17 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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Say wha?!
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For Sport
#4 Posted : Wednesday, March 30, 2011 10:22:18 PM
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Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
Meaning its useless to save?..No interest rate around here will save you from this erosion.
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For Sport
#5 Posted : Wednesday, March 30, 2011 10:23:57 PM
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hisah
#6 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 8:12:12 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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I can hardly believe the inflation print @9.1%...?!

I posted this on March 1st that I expect inflation to spike to 9% in Q2 and it was an outrageous estimate!? But alas! It arrives in Q1?! Yet again we have some "analysts" saying this is just a blip and 6% GDP is safe. BS is my response to them. Double digit inflation here we come. CBK has to keep on hiking rates; they have no choice. Now will CBK adapt another inflation formula model to cook down double digit rates back to single digit...??? How many of u have done yoy inflation comparison? Mar10-Mar11 inflation spike is almost x3 or 300% up. Very bullish stock this...
But the gov is busy with hague petitions & mpigs busy with 2012 politicking & hague slinging bs Sad
If ocampo & constitution had failed, we would be in the same boat with Egypt...

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...&m=152615#post152615
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#7 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 8:30:31 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This fuel price control is about to experience a deer caught in headlamps moment...
CBK has to be hawkish going forward and hike CBR back above 7%. That will bite hard at their 6% GDP estimate, but they don't have a choice.
Now the June budget prep team will under serious migraines as they try to see how money will be raised with revenues down... I don't envy their position...
As it is, Money market has outperformed equities in Q1 on the long term papers. On the short term papers, inflation outperforms them i.e. they have lost like equities.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 8:49:15 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
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Location: nairobi
GOD our father may decide to cool this abit by good rains because all the monkeys are crying for their already full stomach's.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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KulaRaha
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 8:58:09 AM
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Joined: 7/26/2007
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Govt of fool for fools....

Soon the usual bunch will start blaming Raira for the economy...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Cde Monomotapa
#10 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 9:05:24 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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CBK has played its part with the last MPC decision. It is now up to Treasurey to cut the taxes on fuel in the 11/12 budget & KPRL to improve efficiency. The pricing formula is just fine.it is 2 of its components are variable, volatile & really out the control of anyone i.e forex rates & global oil prices.
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newfarer
#11 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 9:07:02 AM
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Joined: 3/19/2010
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Location: Uganda
Just at the time I was feeling the heat on the price of my favourite bread , Broadways, they announced that the rate of inflation is 9.1%.I think the rate is higher than that .The price of bread has been increasing fast from Ksh 30 in December 2010 to Ksh 40 today.And schools are closing , I'm finished!!!!!

The price of bread and maize meal(unga) is now unreachable to many Kenyans.
punda amecheka
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youcan'tstopusnow
#12 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 9:13:33 AM
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Watu waache ugali na mahindi waanze kukula nduma na matoke
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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KulaRaha
#13 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 9:19:30 AM
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Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Watu waache ugali na mahindi waanze kukula nduma na matoke


Soon we will eat rats like advised by our dear leaders
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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kizee1
#14 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 9:43:35 AM
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Location: nairobi
expect a proper tightening...cbk have started mopping up liquidity..implied 3mnth yields are at 4pct...life will get hard...kuna vile we might hav a recession
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msupious financially
#15 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 11:35:41 AM
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Joined: 1/17/2011
Posts: 70
newfarer wrote:
Just at the time I was feeling the heat on the price of my favourite bread , Broadways, they announced that the rate of inflation is 9.1%.I think the rate is higher than that .The price of bread has been increasing fast from Ksh 30 in December 2010 to Ksh 40 today.And schools are closing , I'm finished!!!!!Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

The price of bread and maize meal(unga) is now unreachable to many Kenyans.


Try ndumas n gwacis or mandazis one to eat one each...its much cheaper
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hisah
#16 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 11:57:51 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
expect a proper tightening...cbk have started mopping up liquidity..implied 3mnth yields are at 4pct...life will get hard...kuna vile we might have a recession


CBK mopping up quietly... So soon we will see banks hiking lending rates quietly and for the active ones the fine print "terms and conditions apply" will be used to adjust the "fixed rate"...

And so we will have a record trillion budget this year with liquidity tightening on the cards with an inflating national debt and a bullish 6% GDP estimate... I love this country's policy makers and their steadfast rosy estimates despite reading the cards wrongly...

World Bank should be studying our economic policies... It works! Brick wall

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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ProverB
#17 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 12:24:32 PM
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Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mkonomtupu wrote:
@Hisah now update us on this 9% inflation which you indicated would come in Q2 and its effect on equities. Is it just temporary or is this the shocker like 1993-1994. I'm thinking if it keeps up at this pace banks are going to get plenty of defaults soon. I'm a simpleton from mashinani so try also explain


..mhmmm... read from many an investor... Stock market returns have historically trumped inflation... most recent case..Zimbabwe.. high inflation hurts livelihood..but portends market turn around..coming soon.. smile
High energy prices, rising unit labor costs and pressure on supplies of key resources such as steel and cement (thanks to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita) are lining up like some ill-fated stars to guarantee the Fed will continue raising short-term interest rates.

anyway..high inflation..too much cash chasing too few good...meaning cbk to mop up has increased base rate..later translate to banks adjusting lending rates upwards..consumer goods also see price hikes..
some dude i don't know wrote:

"High interest rates and companies raising prices don’t add up to an investment profile most investors enjoy. However, stocks are still a good hedge against inflation because, in theory, a company’s revenue and earnings should grow at the same rate as inflation over the time.


..i believe the dude is smart. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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mukiha
#18 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 1:27:42 PM
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Joined: 6/27/2008
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[quote=hisah]I can hardly believe the inflation print @9.1%...?!

I posted this on March 1st that I expect inflation to spike to 9% in Q2 and it was an outrageous estimate!? But alas! It arrives in Q1?! Yet again we have some "analysts" saying this is just a blip and 6% GDP is safe. BS is my response to them. Double digit inflation here we come. CBK has to keep on hiking rates; they have no choice. Now will CBK adapt another inflation formula model to cook down double digit rates back to single digit...??? How many of u have done yoy inflation comparison? Mar10-Mar11 inflation spike is almost x3 or 300% up. Very bullish stock this...
But the gov is busy with hague petitions & mpigs busy with 2012 politicking & hague slinging bs Sad
If ocampo & constitution had failed, we would be in the same boat with Egypt...

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=152615#post152615[/quote]
2 things;

1. CBK does not do the inflation calculations. That's the job of the KNBS, formerly CBS

2. The shift from arithmetic to geometric mean was not intended to reduce the result. geometric mean is the better measure of price index (or other index) movement. That's why even the NSE indices are geometric
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Govmusili
#19 Posted : Thursday, March 31, 2011 2:28:15 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/13/2010
Posts: 85
Location: Nairobi
Pump prices arent the only factor. Kenya's year-on-year inflation rate accelerated to 9.19 percent from 6.54 percent in February driven by high food and fuel prices. Month-on-month, the consumer price index rose 2.28 percent, with food and non-alcoholic drinks prices rising by 3.92 percent while transport costs increased by 2.36 percent. Housing, transport, water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels index rose by 1.56 percent. Last week, Central Bank raised its base rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in a move to curb the rising inflation. Since January this year, inflation has been high above the government medium term target of 5 percent and a further increase may push for further intervention by CBK.

Lakini not to worry too much its anticipated the onset of the long rains to ease pressure on food and electricity costs.
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hisah
#20 Posted : Tuesday, April 05, 2011 6:58:59 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mukiha - I agree CBK doesn't calc inflation, but their monetary policies affect it...
As for inflation model changes by KNBS from arith to geo, as long as the term hedonics is part of the formula, it smacks of cooking aka fraud... And this is a global inflation calc practice now.

Sustained high inflation puts pressure on govt papers and making the gov pay dearly for borrowing, which inflates the national debt. At that point the central bankers & policy makers have to find a way of controlling it. Then out of the blues the CPI is tweaked to exclude 'some' items from the inflation formula basket... China has done this in 2011 and so many other countries. Why? Read the plenty articles on the net...
Inflation has been, is, and will always be a hidden tax and I can't be convinced otherwise...

At least KNBS admits double digit inflation is real in the article below. So why buy short term gov papers...? And bank will keep lending rates low, we will see...

@Pkoli - Stocks thrive in inflation times, but NSE index is already negative for the year long before 'bad guy' oil spiked. Will the NSE index catch up with spiky oil, not likely unless oil does a nosedive, MENA crisis cools off and drought reality is reset. I wonder how...

http://www.businessdaily...8/-/cki610z/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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