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Stock Behavior Ex-Bonus?
Impunity
#1 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 9:20:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
How does a stock generally behave on the first trading ex bonus?What is the average %age decline in stock price?
d'oh!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Impunity
#2 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 9:31:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
Imeng'olewa.
Sad
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2011 4:54:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
Impunity wrote:
How does a stock generally behave on the first trading ex bonus?What is the average %age decline in stock price?
d'oh!
So many variables but should decline by the same % of the bonus e.g. 1:4 bonus [So you get one share for every 4 you have] means ex-bonus should be lower by 20% [since that was the dilution factor]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
holycow
#4 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2011 3:21:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
NIC had a dip of about 7% Ex-bonus as at Friday 8th. this is close to the forecast 10%.
jerry
#5 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2011 4:37:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
How is KCB expected to behave between now and books closer on 9th May 11?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Cde Monomotapa
#6 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2011 10:05:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
jerry wrote:
How is KCB expected to behave between now and books closer on 9th May 11?

I expect KCB to hold atleast if it doesn't keep rallying. This is because they released Q1 results on 29th April in FY2010. When the results are sterling then ur thinking is as good as mine...
Billionaire
#7 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2011 11:16:37 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/2/2010
Posts: 26
Location: Nrb
NIC seem to be holding off at 41 region. is it time to buy?
the deal
#8 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2011 11:26:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Aulready send an order to my broker...at 41 u r buying NIC at a PE of less than 9...i like ex bonus shares they tend to pick immediately after the sell off.
The Merchant
#9 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2011 12:47:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Billionaire wrote:
NIC seem to be holding off at 41 region. is it time to buy?

Yes. The sell of is due to the ex bonus thing. After some time expect a relief rally. Can lock in like 5 bob.
Sober
#10 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2011 1:29:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
if the price remains where it is, with the ten shares for every one hundred. then guys are about 8% in gains! look at it that way.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Gordon Gekko
#11 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2011 4:37:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Billionaire wrote:
NIC seem to be holding off at 41 region. is it time to buy?


You had 10 NIC shares. They were trading at ksh 49 cum bonus. The value of your investment was 49 x 10 = 490. When they go ex bonus you now have 11 shares, but the value of your investment is still ksh 490, therefore the price per share ex bonus is ksh 490 / 11 = ksh 44.5. Ignore the dividend for this case as it is insignificant. This means that any trade below 44.5 is OK, ksh 41 is a darn good bargain.
mlennyma
#12 Posted : Monday, April 11, 2011 6:10:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Correct,i bought some today at 42 and will vigorously buy at this level and any other new lows.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Cde Monomotapa
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 12, 2011 8:45:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
With KCB I expect to collect the dividend & more capital gains.
mlennyma
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 12, 2011 8:54:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
I consider it un wise to buy kcb above 25 in the short term.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
jerry
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 12, 2011 9:48:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
mlennyma wrote:
I consider it un wise to buy kcb above 25 in the short term.

>>>I sold at 25/50 and later almost thought I made a mistake. However, may see at least 28/= by books closer on 9th May.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
the deal
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 12, 2011 11:53:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i think its a crime to sell KCB at 25 bob...this stock is on its way to 32 bob once it breaks the 26 bob resistance but it also depends where u bought...lol.
youcan'tstopusnow
#17 Posted : Thursday, April 14, 2011 9:19:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aguy, cum-bonus DTB seems to be waking up
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
guru267
#18 Posted : Saturday, April 23, 2011 10:17:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Aguy, cum-bonus DTB seems to be waking up

@youcant there is alot of risk in DTB at current levels especially when it goes ex bonus because of the following reasons..

1. There is uncertainty of whether they will beat 2010 earnings.
2. The share is trading at all time highs so profit taking might see it trade flat for some time.
3. The company will not increase the 1.6 dividend and is unlikely to pay a bonus in 2011.
4. For small holders the current bonus issue will result into odd lots which one cant sell..

Disclaimer: the company and share price are likely to outperform in the 3-5 year outlook..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#19 Posted : Saturday, April 23, 2011 11:01:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, that is why I will be looking for something a little more modest than your 190smile
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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