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The real cause of depressed KSH.
selah
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:22:46 PM
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Joined: 10/13/2009
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Location: in kenya
What is causing the KSh. to depreciate, Egypt and Libya cant be the Only reason The Ocampo6 argument does not add Up.....Most of the african Markets have dipped since the ARAB world Uprising But can this explain the weakening of the shilling.

And the Bonds CBK are floating are most probably being used to wipe out excess liquidity.Being a simple Kenyan Do I need to get worried?
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
For Sport
#2 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:36:23 PM
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Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
No idea

It is depreciating so badly you'd think we'd printed money.
jawz1
#3 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:39:26 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2008
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Location: Nairobi
Just wait for fuel price increases past 100bob next week and attendant food and fare increases than you may start to get a little worried
"When the pupil is ready to learn, a teacher will appear." -- Zen proverb
My 2 cents
#4 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:43:14 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,067
selah wrote:

And the Bonds CBK are floating are most probably being used to wipe out excess liquidity.Being a simple Kenyan Do I need to get worried?



I am afraid yes; inflation is going to worsen. I envy those paid in hard currencies.
jerry
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:57:29 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
My 2 cents wrote:
selah wrote:

And the Bonds CBK are floating are most probably being used to wipe out excess liquidity.Being a simple Kenyan Do I need to get worried?



I am afraid yes; inflation is going to worsen. I envy those paid in hard currencies.

So, where is the gov getting the cash to service all the debt? Print money or tax me more?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
kizee1
#6 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 5:24:48 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
For Sport wrote:
No idea

It is depreciating so badly you'd think we'd printed money.

this is the main reason...i think i mentioned CBK last year purchased upwards of USD 500mio thus selling KES 40yds! now how did cbk get 40 yards to do this? they printed money 40 bn worth, worse they keep doing reverse repos further flooding the domestic money mkts..all in the name of chasing growth??? guess theyve forgotten their object eh?
hisah
#7 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 6:16:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
For Sport wrote:
No idea

It is depreciating so badly you'd think we'd printed money.

this is the main reason...i think i mentioned CBK last year purchased upwards of USD 500mio thus selling KES 40yds! now how did cbk get 40 yards to do this? they printed money 40 bn worth, worse they keep doing reverse repos further flooding the domestic money mkts..all in the name of chasing growth??? guess theyve forgotten their object eh?



Central banks print money... Out of thin air...?! Now there lies the problem of money mechanics - fractional reserve mechanics. If they print more than goods/services available the imbalance is hidden by the rising inflation. Inflation is hidden taxation whichever way you look at it. A 90/- dollar rate wont be funny for a net importing nation. y
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#8 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 8:57:24 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Please note that CBK recently got a USD.500M facility from IMF so whatevr is happening is simply global dollar strength and or speculation. There certainly is no forex shortage in Kenya. Don't blame the good governor please..tihihi.. !! MARTHA KARUA FOR PRESIDENT !!
kizee1
#9 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 9:27:28 AM
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Please note that CBK recently got a USD.500M facility from IMF so whatevr is happening is simply global dollar strength and or speculation. There certainly is no forex shortage in Kenya. Don't blame the good governor please..tihihi.. !! MARTHA KARUA FOR PRESIDENT !!

global dolar strenght? are you for real? which global dollar strength are u on about? cbk devalued the kes, they deviated from their object and tried to force growth, printed tonnes of money and pumped it into the economy, what ur seeing now is a devaluation, kes is weaker against all goods and services whether locally or internationally produced! NDUNGU IS 100% TO BLAME FOR THIS NONESENSE!
For Sport
#10 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 12:21:37 PM
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Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
Cde....hapaaaaaana
The dollar has been taking a beating here and there.
http://www.ibtimes.com/a...is-weakening-hellip.htm

Wapi Qw??
selah
#11 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 1:40:21 PM
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Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
I just hope CBK is not being used to generate 2012 campaign cash....The most interesting part is that our KSh is loosing ground to even EAC currencies which is weired given that we are supposed to b the anchor to this economies.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 1:55:56 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
It would not surprise me if some 'connected' folks who are cronies of MoF honchos... sold KES to buy US$/Forex...

Watch CBK start buying US$ from these guys!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee1
#13 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 2:00:42 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
selah wrote:
I just hope CBK is not being used to generate 2012 campaign cash....The most interesting part is that our KSh is loosing ground to even EAC currencies which is weired given that we are supposed to b the anchor to this economies.



the cbk is a private institution, theyre doin what theyr doin fro profit
selah
#14 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 2:12:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
kizee1 wrote:
selah wrote:
I just hope CBK is not being used to generate 2012 campaign cash....The most interesting part is that our KSh is loosing ground to even EAC currencies which is weired given that we are supposed to b the anchor to this economies.



the cbk is a private institution, theyre doin what theyr doin fro profit


Alykhan satchu see the Ksh.touching 100/$ now how is that making any business sense? when we are dependent on oil for most of our economy...at the end of the day we are loosing a lot with this depreciated shilling.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
selah
#15 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 3:30:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Uganda is selling its $ to shore up it UGSH. Either our governor is very claver or we are going to the gutter....But with our coffee getting good prices and horticulture still dominating our economy it might work out for the best.I think the current shocks we are experiencing are temporary and we might see a surge once the arab world calms.

But on another Note can the JAPAN quake change the strength of the $ given that japan also hold large sums of US debts whic they might cash out to revitalise their economy after this disaster.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
the deal
#16 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 3:44:49 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kenya is an import oriented country and its the small trader who import stuff from China, Dubai, SA etc who are being screwed by this weak shilling but its for my Rand dominated account more money for me.
Cde Monomotapa
#17 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 10:37:53 PM
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selah wrote:

But on another Note can the JAPAN quake change the strength of the $ given that japan also hold large sums of US debts whic they might cash out to revitalise their economy after this disaster.

U r most correct, it could cause dollar weakness but which could easily mopped considering the Feds QE ops that has created tons of liquidity. Glad oil has droppd below USD 100 with the quake. Also pleasd at UGX strength works well for SBU holders. The CBK could be speculating as well! Waiting to cash out @ 90 esp. on the comfort of the USD.500M IMF facilty incase they nesh!
kizee1
#18 Posted : Saturday, March 12, 2011 3:06:31 PM
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Location: nairobi
as i left the office ndungu had issued a statement saying the obvious, that the move was driven by spec accounts...such flippancy from a CB head is amazing, anyway monday should see some nice stop driven activity and the KES MAY recover, however in the long run the structural problems that took is to 86 remain....
selah
#19 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2011 10:18:17 AM
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Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
selah wrote:

But on another Note can the JAPAN quake change the strength of the $ given that japan also hold large sums of US debts whic they might cash out to revitalise their economy after this disaster.

U r most correct, it could cause dollar weakness but which could easily mopped considering the Feds QE ops that has created tons of liquidity. Glad oil has droppd below USD 100 with the quake. Also pleasd at UGX strength works well for SBU holders. The CBK could be speculating as well! Waiting to cash out @ 90 esp. on the comfort of the USD.500M IMF facilty incase they nesh!


I heard on cnn that the Japanese govt actually pumped Billion of yen to its market to shore up its currency,apparently investors had ditched the $ to Yen before the tsunami disaster which straightened the yen, But following the disaster the Japanese stock market dropped by 6% which necessitated the BOJ to intervene by injecting cash to ensure liquidity is maintained.By today maybe we shall see a weakening of the yen and strengthening of the dollar as pple ditch the yen and buy the dollar.

bottom line we are screwed if the $ continue to strengthen.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
kizee1
#20 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2011 10:38:56 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
selah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
selah wrote:

But on another Note can the JAPAN quake change the strength of the $ given that japan also hold large sums of US debts whic they might cash out to revitalise their economy after this disaster.

U r most correct, it could cause dollar weakness but which could easily mopped considering the Feds QE ops that has created tons of liquidity. Glad oil has droppd below USD 100 with the quake. Also pleasd at UGX strength works well for SBU holders. The CBK could be speculating as well! Waiting to cash out @ 90 esp. on the comfort of the USD.500M IMF facilty incase they nesh!


I heard on cnn that the Japanese govt actually pumped Billion of yen to its market to shore up its currency,apparently investors had ditched the $ to Yen before the tsunami disaster which straightened the yen, But following the disaster the Japanese stock market dropped by 6% which necessitated the BOJ to intervene by injecting cash to ensure liquidity is maintained.By today maybe we shall see a weakening of the yen and strengthening of the dollar as pple ditch the yen and buy the dollar.

bottom line we are screwed if the $ continue to strengthen.



theres no direct coreelation i could think of, as i have said many times kes is weak due to cbks incompetance...
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