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Understanding Political Risk
caesar
#1 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2009 2:43:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/25/2007
Posts: 149
Business Daily cited political risk as the major driver of falling stock prices. I bet on this blog we can wrap our hands around it by sharing our insight of some of the questions I have set and much more.

What are the Kenya Economic projections 2009,2010,2011,2012?

What is the projected interest rates/ Inflation rates?

How risky do we estimate Politics to be before 2012?

Which of the listed companies do we expect to have extra ordinary growth rates in revenues and profitability? How much are they investing in new capital? Why will their markets expand...

What are the other major investment risks in Kenya?

What is working in Kenya? What is not?

I have been trying to convince a friend to invest in Kenya but he says he cannot because he does not understand the political risk. He asked me some of the above questions and I asked you Skerian's. Ps help
jerry
#2 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2009 9:54:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
R u doing a project 4 masters or the ilk? Just convince tourists to come to Kenya and the political risk factor will be minimised. Balala is doing great.

Ecs 11.2 Give portions to seven,yes to eight,for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2009 10:58:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Politicians are the problem. And the idiots who elect them year in year out.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
caesar
#4 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2009 1:04:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/25/2007
Posts: 149
I am in Nairobi pursuing a Masters program. My countries of focus are Russia & Germany Fixed income.

It is hard to analyze what drives stock prices in Kenya. I guess most of us just speculate.
caesar
#5 Posted : Monday, April 13, 2009 2:30:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/25/2007
Posts: 149
The fundamentals of our country are strong. Our stability is directly linked to implementation of political reforms. It is not about who is the leader,It is about,if whoever is the leader is doing the will of the people.

If Kibaki,RAO,Parliament,Kofi Annan,Courts,and the People just do whats the Country deserves of them,without anybody believing that they are more intelligent than the people then we would be on a path to breakthroughs.

Ie: MP's: Pay taxes,Allow free media,establish an elections commission,and become enablers for reforms instead of barriers

RAO: As Prime Minister he should solve Vision 2030 issues within the four walls of his office not inciting the people around the country. He should put his bad memories of 2007 elections behind him. He should know he is in governement and should discuss his concerns either in cabinet,in closed doors but not through the media

Kibaki: He should devolve power from the Presidency. Through a new constitution. He should team up with RAO and cut the ministries from 41 to 17. I am certain that no Kenyan will go to war because of a trimmed bloated cabinet. Revert the retirement clauses he just increased and let those civil servants retire so we can hire new blood. He should Fire Wako,Ali,Ruto,reform the police force,and just become serious on corruption.

Annan: He should just take his list to Hague. Procecute these people,get them relieved from Public service.

NGO's: The NGO's should stop cheerleading,They should start applying for Government jobs. We need reformers inside the government

Karua: She needs to begin the Official opposition in parliament. She should crown herself the Opposition leader because there is a vaccum

Courts: Start procecuting corruption cases and have some big names put in jail without bail. Ignore the criminals political influence

Church Leaders: To stop critisizing the government and to start praying for Rain. They should start programs for men against alcoholism,Start schools for orphans,focus on teaching youth good values,facilitate programs for healthy families,Raise their campaign on good morals and the Immolarity of corruption. They should lead their flocks to cultivate the face of God

The people: They should become more productive in day to day. Change their negative habits and strive to be better. They should keep watch of their leaders and to vow come 2012 they will vote for competent leaders.

If everybody played their as they are supposed to,we would be still be optimistic state
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