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Kengen - The forgotten hero
ngapat
#1 Posted : Saturday, January 15, 2011 2:51:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 896
This company is heavily investing in more plants and nobody seems to talk about it. With GDC helping it in drillng geothemal wells, power production will increase and improve its earnings. Consider it a long term buy.

Its the only counter i ever trippled my money in during its IPO
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Saturday, January 15, 2011 3:53:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
1) No longer an IPO
2) No longer that crazy euphoria
3) Great to invest but the projects will take 1-5 years to implement. The larger projects will be closer to 5 years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#3 Posted : Saturday, January 15, 2011 10:14:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
ngapat wrote:
This company is heavily investing in more plants and nobody seems to talk about it. With GDC helping it in drillng geothemal wells, power production will increase and improve its earnings. Consider it a long term buy.

Its the only counter i ever trippled my money in during its IPO


@ngapat kengen cannot be talked about because it is fairly expensive relative to the rest of the market...

It has heavy debt on its balance sheet and will continue to report falling earnings for the next few years until its projects are fully complete...

I would suggest you buy K.P.L.C because they have a clean balance sheet, growing earnings, good dividends etc...

But the biggest reason anyone interested in buying kengen should instead buy K.P.L.C is that ALL the growth kengen will experience must be passed on to K.P.L.C as they have no choice to sell all their output to them
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Saturday, January 15, 2011 11:04:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Indeed Kengen is forgotten hero. I am expecting better earnings primarily just from recovery of hydro in the 1st half and also the higher earnings due to hydro plant availabilty - remember the new PPA with KPLC gives an incentive to Kengen to produce more under a capacity charge proviso. Simply they bill KPLC higher when they produce more electricity.

In the 2nd half Kengen will have approx 200MW new capacity to sell from the various projects that have been commisioned as well as the 120MW Kipevu 3 to be commisioned probably this month.

Lastly, they are expected to start trading carbon credits for their wind and geo-thermal plants.

The market was excited with KPLC saving 60MW from the energy saving bulbs. How much more clean energy does Kengen have to offer currentlyand in the medium term?

This is the simplest investment on the NSE and what I like is that they know how to trade with excess funds. Just last year they made a billion bob from interest income...superfly!!!

BUY<BUY<BUY!
Gordon Gekko
#5 Posted : Sunday, January 16, 2011 12:02:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Saw some guy on K24 this morning , Samuel Mwangi i think the name was who generates his own power using hydro. He is currently trying to convince his neighbourhood to join the party. Now if we got a sizeable number of such guys around, what portends? Btw, someone should tell him about this genie called carbon credits.....
chaliwong
#6 Posted : Sunday, January 16, 2011 7:38:57 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/10/2010
Posts: 73
Location: kenya
Every six months these guys will announce some credit borrowing from Japan or somewhere.
Its been long since they announced a successful loan from somewhere.
I Expect another announcement soon.
alikujia
#7 Posted : Sunday, January 16, 2011 10:35:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2010
Posts: 324
Location: nrb
chaliwong wrote:
Every six months these guys will announce some credit borrowing from Japan or somewhere.
Its been long since they announced a successful loan from somewhere.
I Expect another announcement soon.

mmmhhh. @Chali, maybe because they got the 25B. I remember somebody remarking here in a a rather oddly tone, he will be waiting to see what Eddy has done with the 25b before buying. @mono, they made 1B in interest some time ago? Anyway now calculate how much they are paying in interest for that 25B bond.
Cde Monomotapa
#8 Posted : Monday, January 17, 2011 2:37:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
alikujia wrote:
chaliwong wrote:
Every six months these guys will announce some credit borrowing from Japan or somewhere.
Its been long since they announced a successful loan from somewhere.
I Expect another announcement soon.

mmmhhh. @Chali, maybe because they got the 25B. I remember somebody remarking here in a a rather oddly tone, he will be waiting to see what Eddy has done with the 25b before buying. @mono, they made 1B in interest some time ago? Anyway now calculate how much they are paying in interest for that 25B bond.


@ ALikujia. They made the 1B in end year June 2010.

You see it is all about the cost of borrowing at the end of the day and I am happy that Kengen understands that.

For example, it pays 12.5% on the PIBO and trades the money that is not in use at the moment making 8%, trading bonds on the NSE etc thus effective cost of borrowing is 12.5 - 8= 4.5% finance cost.

I hope you see what i am saying.
My 2 cents
#9 Posted : Monday, January 17, 2011 5:20:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
Dividend policy unpredictable, lots of debt. GDC was spun out of it without consideration to current shareholders. Am glad I got out of this dog.
ngapat
#10 Posted : Monday, January 17, 2011 8:54:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 896
I believe the firm's capacity expansion initiatives should bring about a steady growth in profitability in the long run.
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Monday, January 17, 2011 9:12:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
At 2 cents i was equally mad at kengen being clippd outta GDC but at 2nd thot i actually threw a bash! Simple reason Gdc is an exploration co.thus what they do is speculate for geothrmal.now, i askd myself when gdc drills a blank for so many millions is that n impairment i'd like 2 see in kengen's books? NO! Solution?let mwananchi take n pay 4 any risks. Whn gdc gets a good well kengen can then use it 4 generation. On the debt this is elec we r talking abt in an undr elecd growng economy. Chances of success r higher. Hii si bizna ya telcoms boss.
slykat
#12 Posted : Friday, July 08, 2011 2:16:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
My 2 cents wrote:
Dividend policy unpredictable, lots of debt. GDC was spun out of it without consideration to current shareholders. Am glad I got out of this dog.


I made an exit post IPO @35 and never looked at this again. Gladly so. But now mhhh... what is been going on? U mean GDC was a loss to KenGen shareholders just like that? No equity in GDC or any sort of financial gain for KenGeners at all, just like that? Wow!!
mlennyma
#13 Posted : Friday, July 08, 2011 2:21:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
The only comfort here is that as long as there is a gvt,kengen will be there whether doing well or sinking.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
ngapat
#14 Posted : Friday, July 08, 2011 2:33:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 896
mlennyma wrote:
The only comfort here is that as long as there is a gvt,kengen will be there whether doing well or sinking.


That's what people thought of the likes of Kenya railways
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Cde Monomotapa
#15 Posted : Friday, July 08, 2011 2:44:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Forgotten indeed.
Cde Monomotapa
#16 Posted : Friday, July 08, 2011 3:03:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Forgotten indeed.

but come next year & beyond when that carbon credit money comes in, some market players will kick themselves for not buying for cheap now smile ~see the end from the beginning, make your moves & monitor over-time.
youcan'tstopusnow
#17 Posted : Friday, July 08, 2011 9:46:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
~see the end from the beginning, make your moves & monitor over-time.

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwekez@ji
#18 Posted : Saturday, July 09, 2011 12:11:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
~see the end from the beginning, make your moves & monitor over-time.


Cde Monomotapa
#19 Posted : Saturday, July 09, 2011 9:21:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
~see the end from the beginning, make your moves & monitor over-time.



QW25071985
#20 Posted : Saturday, July 09, 2011 9:55:42 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
hahahhah. i am very sure this thread has been bank rolled by one @cde ..Laughing out loudly
but its shocking to say the least...ipo price was at 11.90 and it closed the week at 12.20 . WOW. What a bargain. if i was to buy i would buy now . My bet ipo price is a very good support .Mind you the ipo was oversubscribed by 337 per cent !!!!!!!!!!!
Whats also shocking is that the same share has an ALL TIME HIGH of Sh62 ..lol.

ehhh., this stock indeed has memories..sweet memories
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