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Madness at the NSE
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sparkly
#1961 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 12:50:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


My portfolio has 10 stocks. My top 3 are NMG, Kengen and BAT = 47%.
BAT is dope. I have a few for the 8% dividend. It's like a high-quality bond.

KenGen - How has that treated you? What & what was the last dividend you received? Current Dividend Yield?

NMG - I used to be a fan but I luckily exited a long, long time ago. It's a tough industry. The dividend yield seems good but can it continue?
Even Warren Buffett has thrown in the towel by selling his newspapers.


Kengen - my abp is around 6.60. Collected div of 0.40 per share last year. Sold 1/3 of my holdings for 30% capital gains around the time i won the Kengen vs KK bet against you.

NMG - averaged down. My abp is now around 51.

BAT - My abp including commisions around 480. Waiting for lower prices to add some more
Life is short. Live passionately.
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sparkly
#1962 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 1:06:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Angelica _ann
#1963 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 1:07:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,912
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


Am sure not Equity, probably KCB.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Ericsson
#1964 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 6:08:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,764
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


Am sure not Equity, probably KCB.

Equity no
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#1965 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 6:09:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,764
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


Am sure not Equity, probably KCB.

KCB yes
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#1966 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 6:11:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,764
Location: NAIROBI
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


Safaricom yes
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#1967 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 6:14:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,764
Location: NAIROBI
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


The last is coop bank
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#1968 Posted : Friday, February 14, 2020 6:24:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,170
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


My portfolio has 10 stocks. My top 3 are NMG, Kengen and BAT = 47%.
BAT is dope. I have a few for the 8% dividend. It's like a high-quality bond.

KenGen - How has that treated you? What & what was the last dividend you received? Current Dividend Yield?

NMG - I used to be a fan but I luckily exited a long, long time ago. It's a tough industry. The dividend yield seems good but can it continue?
Even Warren Buffett has thrown in the towel by selling his newspapers.


Kengen - my abp is around 6.60. Collected div of 0.40 per share last year. Sold 1/3 of my holdings for 30% capital gains around the time i won the Kengen vs KK bet against you.

NMG - averaged down. My abp is now around 51.

BAT - My abp including commisions around 480. Waiting for lower prices to add some more

Sad Sad Sad how you made fun of me! Laughing out loudly but it's all good!
Also my first & last attempt to try to buy a crypto currency to pay you!

KK paid off.
Once the Total Man croaked, I guessed it was just a matter of time before the family wanted to cash in.

Another firm that might be taken over is Stanbic KE seeing how the South Africans have been buying shares to get to 75%.
Haba na haba...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#1969 Posted : Sunday, February 16, 2020 2:20:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


The last is coop bank


KCB, Safaricom, Coop are also solid investments
Life is short. Live passionately.
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obiero
#1970 Posted : Sunday, February 16, 2020 11:03:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,670
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://twitter.com/oloojl/status/1226771431054364673/photo/1

It is better to have more diversity for an exchange BUT I also fall in a similar category with my top 5 = 80%+


My top 3=76%


Intention/plan to increase top two to 70%


Which shares, your top 3?


My guess CIC or Liberty or DTB or Equity or Safaricom are on the list.


The last is coop bank


KCB, Safaricom, Coop are also solid investments

Agreed

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 484,100 ABP 7.45; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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VituVingiSana
#1971 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2020 10:35:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,170
Location: Nairobi
I envy investors with cash!
The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#1972 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2020 1:41:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,764
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
I envy investors with cash!
The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable!

Some are still resisting to go lower like safaricom,kcb,equity etc
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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winmak
#1973 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2020 2:35:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
I envy investors with cash!
The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable!



Which
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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xtina
#1974 Posted : Wednesday, February 19, 2020 6:13:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 384
winmak wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I envy investors with cash!
The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable!



Which


Not VVS but knowing them, they are probably talking about Centum, Unga, Equity (but not so much)and BAT.
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VituVingiSana
#1975 Posted : Wednesday, February 19, 2020 6:55:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,170
Location: Nairobi
None for the faint-hearted. Patience required.

Centum (27) is at 40% PB even after provisioning for Amu. 50% of its assets are in real estate including Two Rivers which is facing headwinds.

Unga (33) PB is less than 1 but the economy and milling/food business is tough. Long-term play. Seaboard/Victus tried but failed to buy out 90%.

BAT (480) 8% Dividend Yield but smoking is getting more expensive and opposition to tobacco use grows with education of harmful effects.

Equity (50) seems expensive compared to other banks. The ATMA deal was important as driver of future growth.

Kenya Re (3) has a 0.30 PB but is 60% owned by GoK which is a problem as seen in the boardroom wrangles in 2018.

Banks (DTB, I&M, NCBA) look cheap on a PB and PER basis BUT they do suffer for a slow economy and growing NPLs.
DTB (108) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy. NPLs are worrying.
I&M (54) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy.
NCBA (36) PB less than 1 but there will be costs to merge/integrate the 2 banks. Culture shock. Office politics. Customers will be pissed off.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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watesh
#1976 Posted : Wednesday, February 19, 2020 8:58:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 985
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
None for the faint-hearted. Patience required.

Centum (27) is at 40% PB even after provisioning for Amu. 50% of its assets are in real estate including Two Rivers which is facing headwinds.

Unga (33) PB is less than 1 but the economy and milling/food business is tough. Long-term play. Seaboard/Victus tried but failed to buy out 90%.

BAT (480) 8% Dividend Yield but smoking is getting more expensive and opposition to tobacco use grows with education of harmful effects.

Equity (50) seems expensive compared to other banks. The ATMA deal was important as driver of future growth.

Kenya Re (3) has a 0.30 PB but is 60% owned by GoK which is a problem as seen in the boardroom wrangles in 2018.

Banks (DTB, I&M, NCBA) look cheap on a PB and PER basis BUT they do suffer for a slow economy and growing NPLs.
DTB (108) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy. NPLs are worrying.
I&M (54) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy.
NCBA (36) PB less than 1 but there will be costs to merge/integrate the 2 banks. Culture shock. Office politics. Customers will be pissed off.


I see a lot of opportunity in some of these stocks....
Centum - 40% of its portfolio is in real estate which is receiving mega bashing from all media sources. However, if their word is anything to go by sales are doing well but they can't book them in their books till they hand over so that starts the financial year 2020 - 2021. Market cap 18bn net assets over 50bn. Share price last went below 30 in 2013.

NCBA - The revenue from Fuliza will take up a huge share of their non-funded income, the biggest opportunity this financial year. However, the thousands of complaints from customers since November about the system failures is worrying

Equity - The best part of the Atlas Mara deal is Rwanda. Acquiring BPR will give it the widest branch reach in the country and they will just have BoK to compete with which is number 1 currently. The DR Congo bank acquisition will give a big push in corporate banking there and effectively put it at number 2 just behind Raw Bank.

BAT - Their export market is slowly getting bigger than the Kenyan market esp in the DRC. However the percentage of the population who are smokers keeps getting smaller. Unless their LYFT product goes mainstream, BAT is good for the medium term.
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VituVingiSana
#1977 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 9:12:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,170
Location: Nairobi
BAT results are out.

30 Final Div. 3.50 Interim Div.
Huge level of tax on the products.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Extraterrestrial
#1978 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 2:43:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 173
Location: Mars
RENEWED BEAR. WE WILL BREAK 18 YEAR LOW AGAIN ON NSE20 IT SEEMS. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES.
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mkate_nusu
#1979 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 2:46:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
Extraterrestrial wrote:
RENEWED BEAR. WE WILL BREAK 18 YEAR LOW AGAIN ON NSE20 IT SEEMS. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES.

I fully concur with you @Extraterrestrial
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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sparkly
#1980 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 3:28:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mkate_nusu wrote:
Extraterrestrial wrote:
RENEWED BEAR. WE WILL BREAK 18 YEAR LOW AGAIN ON NSE20 IT SEEMS. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES.

I fully concur with you @Extraterrestrial


I doubted @Mnandii predictions but they might just come to pass.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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