cnn wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows.
I am still working with the the base case scenario that we will probably not bottom out till we are in sub
2000 territory. Working with that presupposition even the GFC low won't hold.
Do you figure what kind of stock prices would bring NSE 20 to that? EABL@150,SAFCOM @10,Equity @ 21,Centum@24,BAT@450..Much as i look forward to nice discounts that would be insanity and i had enough of it in 09 to last me a lifetime.
Kudos if you took advantage of the discounts back then.
So far the hallmark of this bear has been stealth unlike the heavy metal version for the better part of the GFC period. We are 1year three months into its run currently (an 8 month limbo included) but the pain is yet to register. The GFC peak to trough crash lasted about 1 year and six months(with a one year back and forth stagnation) whereas the 2011 mini bear took 1 year and three months. In both periods, NSE20 was lagging the turmoil happening elsewhere. This time our market is frontrunning the chaos having shed close to 2000 points in the process.
From the fundies side, both KE and global economic conditions don't look particularly encouraging, if anything they are a lot more anemic than during the GFC. The end of this business cycle is fast approaching and it will most likely resolve the excesses that were swept under the carpet in the recent past.
It's anyone's guess what will break the markets but the worst is yet to come and the CB's won't know what hit them. If this plays out to its logical conclusion, GFC might end up looking like child's play when compared to what's unfolding. To bring the sub 2000 call into perspective, consider the GFC to have been a prelude/dress rehearsal to the main event. Most African economies are bound to overheat - some are already there - thanks to inflation and KE will not be an exception.
As for the mentioned target prices after the crash has occurred, I will let Mr market to tackle that since anything is possible. On the flip side, if this bear turns out to be as severe as I think it will, the subsequent bull phase will redefine the word insanity.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.