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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
lochaz-index
#1921 Posted : Wednesday, June 29, 2016 9:23:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
cnn wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows.

I am still working with the the base case scenario that we will probably not bottom out till we are in sub 2000 territory. Working with that presupposition even the GFC low won't hold.

Do you figure what kind of stock prices would bring NSE 20 to that? EABL@150,SAFCOM @10,Equity @ 21,Centum@24,BAT@450..Much as i look forward to nice discounts that would be insanity and i had enough of it in 09 to last me a lifetime.

Kudos if you took advantage of the discounts back then.

So far the hallmark of this bear has been stealth unlike the heavy metal version for the better part of the GFC period. We are 1year three months into its run currently (an 8 month limbo included) but the pain is yet to register. The GFC peak to trough crash lasted about 1 year and six months(with a one year back and forth stagnation) whereas the 2011 mini bear took 1 year and three months. In both periods, NSE20 was lagging the turmoil happening elsewhere. This time our market is frontrunning the chaos having shed close to 2000 points in the process.

From the fundies side, both KE and global economic conditions don't look particularly encouraging, if anything they are a lot more anemic than during the GFC. The end of this business cycle is fast approaching and it will most likely resolve the excesses that were swept under the carpet in the recent past.

It's anyone's guess what will break the markets but the worst is yet to come and the CB's won't know what hit them. If this plays out to its logical conclusion, GFC might end up looking like child's play when compared to what's unfolding. To bring the sub 2000 call into perspective, consider the GFC to have been a prelude/dress rehearsal to the main event. Most African economies are bound to overheat - some are already there - thanks to inflation and KE will not be an exception.

As for the mentioned target prices after the crash has occurred, I will let Mr market to tackle that since anything is possible. On the flip side, if this bear turns out to be as severe as I think it will, the subsequent bull phase will redefine the word insanity.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mkate_nusu
#1922 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 12:57:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
This BEAR is disintegrating my portfolio seriously. Serikal saidia
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
mlennyma
#1923 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 4:11:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
mkate_nusu wrote:
This BEAR is disintegrating my portfolio seriously. Serikal saidia

After closing the first half today,i expect a flat tyre until august when the market might react to H1 results, but overall a bad stocks year it is.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
streetwise
#1924 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 4:40:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
We are not at the bottom yet especially with election next year , mungu saidia, here Gava cant help
Aguytrying
#1925 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 8:20:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah. The identity of the ftse 15 n 25 is such a guarded secret. Any leads on where I can search.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#1926 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 8:55:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. The identity of the ftse 15 n 25 is such a guarded secret. Any leads on where I can search.

Maybe if one buys the mentioned KE NSE CFDs one can be furnished with that info. But it's obvious the top 4 counters are part on these CFDs. Though they too get revised from time to time.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
instinct
#1927 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2016 9:10:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619
Wakanyugi
#1928 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2016 9:24:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619



Here is an idea that could turn round the fortunes of the NSE

Open a counter for buying and selling politicians.

I am sure the coming one year investors could make a killing.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
instinct
#1929 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2016 10:55:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Wakanyugi wrote:
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619



Here is an idea that could turn round the fortunes of the NSE

Open a counter for buying and selling politicians.

I am sure the coming one year investors could make a killing.


I exited the market totally a few weeks back. i sleep soundly these dayssmile
lochaz-index
#1930 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2016 6:58:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619

The divergence between safcom and the NSE20 is growing by the day. Which way Mr market? Does safcom follow the index or the other way around? I think this has to sort itself out so as to give the market some definitive direction.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#1931 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2016 7:23:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619

The divergence between safcom and the NSE20 is growing by the day. Which way Mr market? Does safcom follow the index or the other way around? I think this has to sort itself out so as to give the market some definitive direction.

That's the last straw standing. It's held its footing stubbornly. But if it breaks, the ensuing storm will be hard to watch. Level to watch is 15 handle then 12.50. As long as those support levels hold, mpesa bank will keep afloat. The financials have been the leaders in this bear. In 2008 and 2011 mpesa bank slump drove the index down sharply and faster.

Meanwhile NSE20 is poised to break below 3500. No support here until 3300.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
sparkly
#1932 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2016 8:19:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
instinct wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619



Here is an idea that could turn round the fortunes of the NSE

Open a counter for buying and selling politicians.

I am sure the coming one year investors could make a killing.


I exited the market totally a few weeks back. i sleep soundly these dayssmile


Good for you.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Aguytrying
#1933 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2016 1:05:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619



Here is an idea that could turn round the fortunes of the NSE

Open a counter for buying and selling politicians.

I am sure the coming one year investors could make a killing.


I exited the market totally a few weeks back. i sleep soundly these dayssmile


Good for you.


@instinct. You should be buying not selling
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
instinct
#1934 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2016 10:38:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
instinct wrote:
NSE20 share index loses 1.14% to hit a 12month low of 3619



Here is an idea that could turn round the fortunes of the NSE

Open a counter for buying and selling politicians.

I am sure the coming one year investors could make a killing.


I exited the market totally a few weeks back. i sleep soundly these dayssmile


Good for you.


@instinct. You should be buying not selling


i have a feeling the bloodletting will continue..
hisah
#1935 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 4:43:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mid July and NSE20 breaks below 3600 handle to close the week on losses continuation. Closed at 3596. Too much discounts are "bad" for your health smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Othelo
#1936 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 4:51:39 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
hisah wrote:
Mid July and NSE20 breaks below 3600 handle to close the week on losses continuation. Closed at 3596. Too much discounts are "bad" for your health smile

Correction will catch guys napping smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
Metasploit
#1937 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 6:35:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Still way down to go..

Too much supply at good prices with no excitement in demand

KPLC touched 8.55 with no excitement in demand..8.00 will print in a few days time

KCB at the lowest RSI in more than 10 years (14) with supply building at 32 and still no excitement in demand..30 will touch eventually.Will Ksh 30 excite demand ? Doesnt look like

CIC eyeing 4.00 and below

Britam breaking below 13.50 round 2 (There has been lots of supply here)

and soo many others.....

Meanwhile safcom has refused to go past 17.50 and drop below 17.00.Waiting to see who wins

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Othelo
#1938 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 6:54:07 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Looking forward to making money on Britam again because it is a high beta stock. Right entry & exit is key. A low of 8 would be welcome.
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
lochaz-index
#1939 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 7:31:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Metasploit wrote:
Still way down to go..

Too much supply at good prices with no excitement in demand

KPLC touched 8.55 with no excitement in demand..8.00 will print in a few days time

KCB at the lowest RSI in more than 10 years (14) with supply building at 32 and still no excitement in demand..30 will touch eventually.Will Ksh 30 excite demand ? Doesnt look like

CIC eyeing 4.00 and below

Britam breaking below 13.50 round 2 (There has been lots of supply here)

and soo many others.....

Meanwhile safcom has refused to go past 17.50 and drop below 17.00.Waiting to see who wins

Kcb has leaked in a lot of water. >50% tanking from peak to trough...very interesting.

Initially when the NSE20 started to slide, Kcb was among the few stocks that held ground. Now, on a relative basis, it is front running the market big time. So far Safcom, BAT, eabl and equity are proving to be tough customers for the bear...saving the best for last?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
sparkly
#1940 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 7:44:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
lochaz-index wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Still way down to go..

Too much supply at good prices with no excitement in demand

KPLC touched 8.55 with no excitement in demand..8.00 will print in a few days time

KCB at the lowest RSI in more than 10 years (14) with supply building at 32 and still no excitement in demand..30 will touch eventually.Will Ksh 30 excite demand ? Doesnt look like

CIC eyeing 4.00 and below

Britam breaking below 13.50 round 2 (There has been lots of supply here)

and soo many others.....

Meanwhile safcom has refused to go past 17.50 and drop below 17.00.Waiting to see who wins

Kcb has leaked in a lot of water. >50% tanking from peak to trough...very interesting.

Initially when the NSE20 started to slide, Kcb was among the few stocks that held ground. Now, on a relative basis, it is front running the market big time. So far Safcom, BAT, eabl and equity are proving to be tough customers for the bear...saving the best for last?


Jubilee is another bluechip that is up there.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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