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KENOL-KOBIL 2014
Kausha
#951 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2015 12:45:19 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
David was the biggest industry victim of the triton saga. He cargoes stuck on high sea for two months for lack of ullage.So he can see ahead. Remember fuel outages of 2007 to 08.

Infact prices dropping is what he is worried about.That's assuming the cargo does not have other owners. It looks to me as somebody betting on contago. If prices drop that cargo will block ullage and cock up product availability. If it works its enough incentive to continue.
murchr
#952 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2015 4:57:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
And all of a sudden,the strunglers are giving up not knowing how close they are to the golden crown..its a tight race and can swing any side but optimism has more upperhand


I've never understood the urge to sell near results, it happens to some of us. previously I tended to sell shares before results


@mlennyma. you remind me of when I alighted liberty aka Cfc insurance at 10.00. having scooped the bottom so well at 7.00. ill never forget. now when I see it at 25-26. hata siwezi ongea.

you have the characteristics of a long termer even if u pride yourself as a speculator.

I still hold my liberty stake got at 7bob and I have no intention to sell until next elections eve,kk diehards will one day laugh the longest laughter of their lifetime, if you didn't sell when the company nearly collapsed, why sell a recovering company unless you are financially fixed elsewhere??



The thing is when we were scooping liberty at 7/- KK was still selling at 8-9/-
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#953 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2015 7:41:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
David was the biggest industry victim of the triton saga. He cargoes stuck on high sea for two months for lack of ullage.So he can see ahead. Remember fuel outages of 2007 to 08.

Infact prices dropping is what he is worried about.That's assuming the cargo does not have other owners. It looks to me as somebody betting on contago. If prices drop that cargo will block ullage and cock up product availability. If it works its enough incentive to continue.

Contango contracts defer delivery. this may be a normal backwardation play by Vivo by booking (cheap) ullage while waiting for prices to rise by 14 April.
is it for diesel or petrol?
I expect diesel prices to increase in April based on a very small increase granted by ERC in March. Petrol may not see the same increase Apr vs Mar.

If KK has a ship on the high seas which can't offload coz Vivo has blocked storage then we will all pay the (higher) price to the benefit of Vivo.

Who owns Vivo?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kausha
#954 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2015 7:57:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
The question is the arguments surrounding the surplus petrol cargo and whether there are other beneficiaries.

Agreed its a backwardation scenario.
mlennyma
#955 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2015 9:44:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Kausha wrote:
The question is the arguments surrounding the surplus petrol cargo and whether there are other beneficiaries.

Agreed its a backwardation scenario.

ohana talked,so he still existsSad
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Boris Boyka
#956 Posted : Sunday, March 22, 2015 9:50:53 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
The question is the arguments surrounding the surplus petrol cargo and whether there are other beneficiaries.

Agreed its a backwardation scenario.

ohana talked,so he still existsSad

You now know what to do if you want him to talksmile
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
Realtreaty
#957 Posted : Monday, March 23, 2015 12:43:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
So we gonna get Superpetrol aka dividend of 25 cts going up to 50 cts?

Nairobi’s rich benefit most from cheap petrol
Realtreaty
#958 Posted : Monday, March 23, 2015 12:46:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
So we gonna get Superpetrol aka dividend of 25 cts going up to 50 cts?

Nairobi’s rich benefit most from cheap petrol
SittingPretty
#959 Posted : Monday, March 23, 2015 10:02:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kausha wrote:
David was the biggest industry victim of the triton saga. He cargoes stuck on high sea for two months for lack of ullage.So he can see ahead. Remember fuel outages of 2007 to 08.

Infact prices dropping is what he is worried about.That's assuming the cargo does not have other owners. It looks to me as somebody betting on contago. If prices drop that cargo will block ullage and cock up product availability. If it works its enough incentive to continue.

Contango contracts defer delivery. this may be a normal backwardation play by Vivo by booking (cheap) ullage while waiting for prices to rise by 14 April.
is it for diesel or petrol?
I expect diesel prices to increase in April based on a very small increase granted by ERC in March. Petrol may not see the same increase Apr vs Mar.

If KK has a ship on the high seas which can't offload coz Vivo has blocked storage then we will all pay the (higher) price to the benefit of Vivo.

Who owns Vivo?

This fiasco is several weeks old, this is more than what meets the eye.
Ullage allocation is always a zero sum, that's if Vivo gets more product some OMC(s) somewhere will have to loose the same quantities of that particular cargo.
More cargo allocation=more sales=more market share=more ullage allocation=more subsequent cargo allocation. And there it cargoes, and in other words it is a collusion to give Vivo undue advantage, and is being egoistic on the part of Vivo (Igathe) to the detriment of the other marketers.
A disclaimer: I don't work for KK or ERC for that matter as pointed out by someone earlier. Infact if Vivo was on the NSE I would gladly invest with them.
Just in the spirit of wazua, on matters where am no layman.
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
yakub
#960 Posted : Monday, March 23, 2015 12:23:04 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 11/8/2014
Posts: 5
@sitting pretty,
I like the disclaimer.
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