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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting  #StockUp Expect NSE to tankto 3600 levels today. With brexit, New lows will be the norm  And there goes my bottom call Why? Did the Brexit win also mean Kenya has left the EU? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp Expect NSE to tankto 3600 levels today. With brexit, New lows will be the norm And there goes my bottom call Why? Did the Brexit win also mean Kenya has left the EU? It's the uncertainty that will Rock the market. Thats the jerk reaction. Flight to safety evidenced by dollar, yen strengthening. Going forward debt might get more expensive as global investors hide under safer assets and demand more for riskier ones like lending to emerging markets. That will raise our interest rates The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:As you can see from the above cartoon, we bottomed in Jan at 3745, the bears having taken charge since March 2015 after we hit 5500 on the NSE20. Before that, the previous bottom was the Dec 2011 low of 3070 which gave way to the bull, made more vicious by the discovery of oil news in Q12012. They controlled the show for about 15 months, with a few corrections in between, eg after the swearing in of Uhuru in April 2013. Bank collapses will shift capital to Government stock and Equities from FDRs. A surge in Treasury bids will bring down yields hence my bottom call. Scom and Equity have both announced FY and Q12016 respectively and its now all systems go. We just need a spark akin to the Q12012 discovery of oil news and the bull will develop legs and run till August 2017, when i foresee a major correction after announcement of the major news. IMF and western envoys are beginning to lecture the opposition and its anyone's guess where they lean.....pointer to political stability in the run up to 2017 elections. Notice today's price movements and foreign interest in Mpesa and member and you don't want to be left out lamenting #StockUp Expect NSE to tankto 3600 levels today. With brexit, New lows will be the norm And there goes my bottom call Why? Did the Brexit win also mean Kenya has left the EU? It's the uncertainty that will Rock the market. Thats the jerk reaction. Flight to safety evidenced by dollar, yen strengthening. Going forward debt might get more expensive as global investors hide under safer assets and demand more for riskier ones like lending to emerging markets. That will raise our interest rates Our (poor) economic management is why we pay high interest rates. Germany is in the Euro and for all purposes it CHARGES folks for putting money in GER banks. Or the Swiss. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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After the storm settles down, FTSE should recover its losses and post all time highs! The pound will also recover its losses and strengthen. The crowd continues to be setup on the wrong side. In a few months the real moves will become clear. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:After the storm settles down, FTSE should recover its losses and post all time highs! The pound will also recover its losses and strengthen.
The crowd continues to be setup on the wrong side. In a few months the real moves will become clear. and this is where the greedy make a fortune when everyone is running out "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The NSE20 band is getting tighter and tighter in recent weeks. 3770-3830 it has been for about two weeks now. Seems like Mr market is waiting for safcom to top out first before bolting out of its self imposed jail. Brexit event risk will be a volatility cocktail! Spectacular crash or rally coming up. I am counting on a crash. It seems like the easier path while the rest of the issues sort themselves out. Just got my wish. Now that the easy bit is done, the pandora box opens for the real can of worms to emerge. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:After the storm settles down, FTSE should recover its losses and post all time highs! The pound will also recover its losses and strengthen.
The crowd continues to be setup on the wrong side. In a few months the real moves will become clear. Agreed. Knee jerk reaction at best. As per media reports, there were queues of commoners awaiting to ditch the pound and buy into the euro. That should prove very costly when reality sinks in. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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lochaz-index wrote:All the CB's chose to stay their hands. The Fed especially didn't come out smelling like roses...all the dithering and retractions are taking their toll on its credibility. Going forward, they will have a very tough time justifying any decisions they come up with in addition to being ineffective. Decoupling in the making.
By holding rates constant, could be they are expecting a bremain after the vote since nothing would change and any after effects may not be far reaching. A brexit on the other hand will pull the proverbial rug from under their feet and they will be chasing the market/behind the curve for a long time. The ECB and BoJ will have it particularly rough if a brexit comes to fruition. Too bad for BoJ and the ECB. Gut wrenching day. The CB's just had the markets call their bluff. When the immediate chaos subsides, most central bankers might find themselves playing against the market instead of leading it. Pin up season just kicked off. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The NSE20 band is getting tighter and tighter in recent weeks. 3770-3830 it has been for about two weeks now. Seems like Mr market is waiting for safcom to top out first before bolting out of its self imposed jail. Brexit event risk will be a volatility cocktail! Spectacular crash or rally coming up. I am counting on a crash. It seems like the easier path while the rest of the issues sort themselves out. Just got my wish. Now that the easy bit is done, the pandora box opens for the real can of worms to emerge. the reds have it. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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No tanking NSE.. No sell-off No volumes... No comparison to the GFC unless effects to trigger later..which i doubt
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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NSE will be just fine.
Remember NSE does not run on those analytics , it runs on speculation and at times insider information.
If you remember during the economic meltdown , I think was in 2008 that happened all over the world Kenya was just fine , question why ?.
For that same reason Kenya economy is likely to experience a positive upturn.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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streetwise wrote:NSE will be just fine.
Remember NSE does not run on those analytics , it runs on speculation and at times insider information.
If you remember during the economic meltdown , I think was in 2008 that happened all over the world Kenya was just fine , question why ?.
For that same reason Kenya economy is likely to experience a positive upturn.
Sorry, we were not fine   @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Metasploit wrote:No tanking NSE..
No sell-off
No volumes...
No comparison to the GFC unless effects to trigger later..which i doubt
Kujipa moyo nayo! You are forgetting the fact that we are in bear run compounded as from today with global event, Brexit, likely to unleash financial earthquake due to investor uncertainty and panic. Even if it will be short run be prepared for haircut. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,597
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Metasploit wrote:No tanking NSE..
No sell-off
No volumes...
No comparison to the GFC unless effects to trigger later..which i doubt
NSE lags behind. It took 2 weeks after Lehman collapse for markets to register the effect. 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Today it's all about volatility. Don't read too much into anything the market always takes care of itself. If you are up for the high octane up/downswings, then today is a gift. The real impact will show up in due time and even the NSE wont escape the ramifications. There are some extremely bullish sentiments on safcom in this forum of late. Time will tell. Meanwhile, most local metrics(NSE20,interbank rate,tbills/bonds,USDKES) which have been in a comatose for a while have had some movements either way...some entertainment at last. Wonder how Q2 GDP figures will look like with banks extending their Q1 slowdown. Treasury has some decisions to make on its expansionary budget. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Cant wait to see how the US markets behave "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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murchr wrote:Cant wait to see how the US markets behave Sub 3700 points 20NSE index must be tested. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Spikes wrote:murchr wrote:Cant wait to see how the US markets behave Sub 3700 points 20NSE index must be tested. closed 6 points above(3706), having shed 38 points vs yesterday. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Spikes wrote:murchr wrote:Cant wait to see how the US markets behave Sub 3700 points 20NSE index must be tested. closed 6 points above(3706), having shed 38 points vs yesterday. Dow down 600+ points "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Spikes wrote:murchr wrote:Cant wait to see how the US markets behave Sub 3700 points 20NSE index must be tested. closed 6 points above(3706), having shed 38 points vs yesterday. Dow down 600+ points Which way mr market tomorrow?
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