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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:FTSE KE NSE15 index weekly chart hints a big move is coming. Calm before the storm. Downside favoured. Bears with the upper-hand. Early year bulls might cancel out with late year bears to close 2017 with a flat. Chances are the bear will finish the rout in 2018 for the next cycle to kick in. An unexpected but welcome consequence of the supreme court ruling is that it may not be possible for KE to raise another eurobond in this cycle...that window may slam shut at any point with the political scene still in a limbo. Possible fiscal crisis in 2018 just as it had promised from way back. There is a small upside coming which is your get out of jail ticket if you are a trader. In cartoon language the move in the NSE 20 index from 2789-4118 is what we call the intervening wave (w-x). That intervening wave makes way for the second zigzag(x-y). The second zigzag will burn you to recognition if you don't know what you are doing. A small upside is possible but I don't expect any meaningful bull charge for the near and medium term. From a fundies point of view, as long as the govt is busy cannibalizing the private sector from all probable angles (funding and regulatory/policy wise) there will be nothing to write home about. In addition, the govt will be fighting for its own survival in that time frame. If as an investor you are easily frazzled, there is no harm in sitting this phase out. My rudimentary calculations suggest that a dip below 3450 level won't be kind to the bulls. As expected FTSE KE NSE15 index slips below the election ruling panic selloff low. Yesterday the index closed with an upthrust bar, which now confirms that the weekly upthrust bar formed during the election ruling reaction was indeed a turning point. Bears are back! FTSE KE NSE15 slips below 200 handle intraday.  One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
@hisah how will a stimulus work if there is a weak credit demand from private sector? "Year-on-year credit growth is at 1.7 per cent, but month-on-month we are on a negative territory," Jared Osoro, KBA's director for research and policy said at a briefing on Thursday.(Source BD) What will sustain the bulls in this kind of environment? Bears will screw us all the way to 2500 level for NSE 20 probably with an overshoot touching GFC lows. Run while you still can. Only way stability shall return is if Uhuru accepts to stay the election to allow for irreducible minimums or Raila accepts the outcome of 26th October for Kenya's sake. Option 2 being most likely
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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piedpiper wrote:karasinga wrote:bartum wrote:Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it KEGN. Monthly view. My humble opinion  have been wrong before and might be wrong again. do your due diligence. disclaimer. best wishes @karasinga thanks for the analysis you are welcome. Almost to the first zone of interest. On 19th Oct, 8 printed. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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wukan wrote:hisah wrote:
One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
@hisah how will a stimulus work if there is a weak credit demand from private sector? "Year-on-year credit growth is at 1.7 per cent, but month-on-month we are on a negative territory," Jared Osoro, KBA's director for research and policy said at a briefing on Thursday.(Source BD) What will sustain the bulls in this kind of environment? Bears will screw us all the way to 2500 level for NSE 20 probably with an overshoot touching GFC lows. If you remove the political anxiety the demand will start to recover then you can inject the stimulus. However, without settling the former issue first then stimulus alone will not be effective.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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karasinga wrote:piedpiper wrote:karasinga wrote:bartum wrote:Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it KEGN. Monthly view. My humble opinion have been wrong before and might be wrong again. do your due diligence. disclaimer. best wishes @karasinga thanks for the analysis you are welcome. Almost to the first zone of interest. On 19th Oct, 8 printed. @karasinga Please post the charts for Safaricom and CIC Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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hisah wrote:wukan wrote:hisah wrote:
One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
@hisah how will a stimulus work if there is a weak credit demand from private sector? "Year-on-year credit growth is at 1.7 per cent, but month-on-month we are on a negative territory," Jared Osoro, KBA's director for research and policy said at a briefing on Thursday.(Source BD) What will sustain the bulls in this kind of environment? Bears will screw us all the way to 2500 level for NSE 20 probably with an overshoot touching GFC lows. If you remove the political anxiety the demand will start to recover then you can inject the stimulus. However, without settling the former issue first then stimulus alone will not be effective. You inject stimulus when banks are not lending it out and capital utilization is low you end up with a comatose economy(stagflation). The solution is spending cuts, balancing the budget and lowering taxes, the private sector would do the rest.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:hisah wrote:wukan wrote:hisah wrote:
One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
@hisah how will a stimulus work if there is a weak credit demand from private sector? "Year-on-year credit growth is at 1.7 per cent, but month-on-month we are on a negative territory," Jared Osoro, KBA's director for research and policy said at a briefing on Thursday.(Source BD) What will sustain the bulls in this kind of environment? Bears will screw us all the way to 2500 level for NSE 20 probably with an overshoot touching GFC lows. If you remove the political anxiety the demand will start to recover then you can inject the stimulus. However, without settling the former issue first then stimulus alone will not be effective. You inject stimulus when banks are not lending it out and capital utilization is low you end up with a comatose economy(stagflation). The solution is spending cuts, balancing the budget and lowering taxes, the private sector would do the rest. @wukan Not in our highly charged political system and lucrative government tenders. If only our leaders could be reading wazua Kenya will be the Singapore of Africa based on the ideas here Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:Fyatu wrote:obiero wrote:[quote=obiero][quote=Spikes][quote=Fyatu]Another testament that some of the so called elders of wazua know nothing and should never be taken seriously(Elders bandia)...we were told that today there will be blood in the streets The elders lost credibility long time ago. http://wazua.co.ke/forum...&t=35813#post808966[/quote] I agree. It's clear that majority of the stocks are rising today and that the neutral counters are few. The NSE is booming. Some of the so called Elders need to learn that the NSE is mature and separate from politics. The economy is immune to political risk.. Tano tena! https://www.nse.co.ke/market-statistics.html
Haha. Here we are @spikes @fyatu.. The economy is growing by leaps and bounds. Next week the NSE 20 will touch 4,100 points?? Last election I stayed inside the NSE and reaped handsome returns but this time I send a silent prayer to all who are heavily invested especially on financial counters. I would have sold KQ which remains the only counter in my portfolio, but the Open Offer data delay has locked me up http://www.businessdaily...47368-bp9rlo/index.html[/quote] Quote:
My best holding time is forever....i pray that the market plummets so that i can accumulate my wish list and hold forever
All the best @fyatu. At least you don't dispute the elders anymore. The NSE is in bad shape the market however rallies up without notice @mlenymma the reverse is more likely in this case http://www.businessdaily...52168-127q7au/index.html
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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It's eerily quiet in here...  Kesho ni public holiday. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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maka wrote:It's eerily quiet in here... Kesho ni public holiday. Trying to contain stuff ...... In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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maka wrote:It's eerily quiet in here... Kesho ni public holiday. We are busy in forex...CBK is burning trades to recognition. Money never sleeps
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:maka wrote:It's eerily quiet in here... Kesho ni public holiday. We are busy in forex...CBK is burning trades to recognition. Money never sleeps woii at this rate ata 110 versus dollar is possible Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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wukan wrote:hisah wrote:wukan wrote:hisah wrote:
One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
@hisah how will a stimulus work if there is a weak credit demand from private sector? "Year-on-year credit growth is at 1.7 per cent, but month-on-month we are on a negative territory," Jared Osoro, KBA's director for research and policy said at a briefing on Thursday.(Source BD) What will sustain the bulls in this kind of environment? Bears will screw us all the way to 2500 level for NSE 20 probably with an overshoot touching GFC lows. If you remove the political anxiety the demand will start to recover then you can inject the stimulus. However, without settling the former issue first then stimulus alone will not be effective. You inject stimulus when banks are not lending it out and capital utilization is low you end up with a comatose economy(stagflation). The solution is spending cuts, balancing the budget and lowering taxes, the private sector would do the rest. What you have outlined is true, but without a conducive political environment implementation of such becomes a difficult task. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Ericsson wrote:
@karasinga
Please post the chart for Safaricom
IMHO, SCOM has lost bullish momentum. And If this premises is right then there is a strong confluence around 20.12. Will be important to watch PA around the demand zones(on the chart  disclaimer. best wishes... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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karasinga wrote:Ericsson wrote:
@karasinga
Please post the chart for Safaricom
IMHO, SCOM has lost bullish momentum. And If this premises is right then there is a strong confluence around 20.12. Will be important to watch PA around the demand zones(on the chart disclaimer. best wishes... When it reaches 20 bob, if it so does, many will wait for 18 bob. Then they see a serious bull surge and start cursing again for the umpteenth time!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Ericsson wrote:
@karasinga
Please post the chart for CIC
here it is... lets see what happen around 4.6.No more comments  disclaimer. best wishes... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:It's eerily quiet in here... Kesho ni public holiday. We are busy in forex...CBK is burning trades to recognition. Money never sleeps woii at this rate ata 110 versus dollar is possible http://www.nation.co.ke/...53108-2gk4bdz/index.htmlpossunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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maka wrote:Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:[quote=maka]It's eerily quiet in here... Kesho ni public holiday. We are busy in forex...CBK is burning trades to recognition. Money never sleeps woii at this rate ata 110 versus dollar is possible http://www.nation.co.ke/...3108-2gk4bdz/index.html[/quote] Terrible situation at the NSE
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:NIC & KCB please!!! KCB weekly view. NIC- No comments  Trade what you see @karasinga interpret the KCB chart. Fair price appears to be KES 35 Technically, KCB is a potential buy. Why? 1. Within a strong demand zone that was able to take out two supply zones( peak A & B) 2. RSI hidden divergence on daily time frame. 3. strong confluence around 374. within a strong support (blue arrows) what is likely to happen. High volume to be evidenced as from today 13th Oct. disclaimer. best wishes and remember there are protective stops,..... use them. 35 is likely a stop. my 2 cents I agree with you on the buy recommendation but the timing is suspect.. @obiero, explain "but timing is suspect". In other news volume as at 1435hrs 7,889,500 have already changed hands and 37 printed I mean why are locals buying now while the market is in a state of flux Thanks You are welcome but tread carefully(tighten your top) between 42 and 46. just in case correction is not over (a probability) best wishes It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:piedpiper wrote:karasinga wrote:bartum wrote:Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it KEGN. Monthly view. My humble opinion have been wrong before and might be wrong again. do your due diligence. disclaimer. best wishes @karasinga thanks for the analysis you are welcome. Almost to the first zone of interest. On 19th Oct, 8 printed. Working as expected(7.9 printed on 23rd oct) but it is important to be extremely cautious between 8.95 and 9.85 because this zone might terminate the current rally. 5.8 might ultimately print. best wishes It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:MSC. Weekly view  Disclaimer. best wishes stretching my imagination too far? time will tell It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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