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The Housing Bubble in Kenya will Burst very soon....
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butterflyke
#81 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 3:15:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/1/2010
Posts: 3,024
Location: Hapa
a friend told me that property prices are likely to go down as the possibility of somalis investing back home opens up....it will take time for that to start happening but it will definitely have an effect and it is likely that property prices may start to decline
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. - Muhammad Ali🐝
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guru267
#82 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 7:39:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
subzero wrote:
CBK says that there is a sharp drop in the amount of forex inflows from unexplained sources since the military incursion in somalia

Any implications on the said 'property bubble' ?


In Nairobi prices will definitely start to fall after some time!



Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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youcan'tstopusnow
#83 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 2:24:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Prime Minister Raila Odinga Wednesday told Parliament some foreign exchange inflows in the economy arose from piracy on the Somali
high seas.
The PM was answering
questions on the Somalia
incursion which was reported by the Business Daily to have led to a sharp drop in unexplained forex from a high of Sh170 billion
at the beginning of 2011 to a low of Sh6.5 billion in June, the lowest figure in five years.
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/vbx712/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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hisah
#84 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 5:42:16 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Prime Minister Raila Odinga Wednesday told Parliament some foreign exchange inflows in the economy arose from piracy on the Somali
high seas.
The PM was answering
questions on the Somalia
incursion which was reported by the Business Daily to have led to a sharp drop in unexplained forex from a high of Sh170 billion
at the beginning of 2011 to a low of Sh6.5 billion in June, the lowest figure in five years.
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/vbx712/-/index.html

Just a wild thot. Does this mean they'll be a USD shortage? What will fill up this illegal USD vacuum?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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sitaki.kujulikana
#85 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 8:28:45 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/25/2012
Posts: 1,826
forgive my naivety in matters economics, but does it mean that USD shortfall will lead to shortage in supply thus a weaker shilling against the USD - this will lead to an increase in commodity prices. which in turn might force a good number of the individuals who bought land for speculative purposes to sell for cash flow problems - which will increase supply of land thus a reduction of the prices.
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Horton
#86 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 9:41:12 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Guru prices aren't going to fall. Kenya's realestate still the cheapest in the world per sqf. Refer to page 29 of the link below from citi/knightfrank. $1m will only buy you 88sqm in Mumbai whereas in Nairobi, it will buy you 588sqm. Granted, Nairobi, isn't in serious contention to compete with cities like Monaco, Miami, London in terms of size, economic complexities etc. but we are getting there. I remember a comedian(the name escapes me) who said Kenya is in Puberty whereas Europe is in Menopause.


I've heard that statement"housing bubble will burst very soon for about 10years now" there is no bubble. Nothing drastic happened even with interest rates of 20% as there is demand for units out there.

The Somali pirate money isn't the basis of the housing market. It maybe to a lesser extent. Even if it was, they aren't going to sell their assets. They will keep and rent.

If you look at this particular thread "mr chicken little" started it in march 2011. And so far, prices have gone up 25%. NOT DOWN. but then again, falling prices make a difference only to speculators, not long term owners.


So long as the population is growing, there will always be demand for housing.

http://resources.knightf...-1231dd51781a&type=1
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young
#87 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 11:13:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
HORTON wrote

Guru prices aren't going to fall. Kenya's realestate still the cheapest in the world per sqf. Refer to page 29 of the link below from citi/knightfrank. $1m will only buy you 88sqm in Mumbai whereas in Nairobi, it will buy you 588sqm. Granted, Nairobi, isn't in serious contention to compete with cities like Monaco, Miami, London in terms of size, economic complexities etc. but we are getting there. I remember a comedian(the name escapes me) who said Kenya is in Puberty whereas Europe is in Menopause.


I've heard that statement"housing bubble will burst very soon for about 10years now" there is no bubble. Nothing drastic happened even with interest rates of 20% as there is demand for units out there.

The Somali pirate money isn't the basis of the housing market. It maybe to a lesser extent. Even if it was, they aren't going to sell their assets. They will keep and rent.

If you look at this particular thread "mr chicken little" started it in march 2011. And so far, prices have gone up 25%. NOT DOWN. but then again, falling prices make a difference only to speculators, not long term owners.


So long as the population is growing, there will always be demand for housing.

http://resources.knightf...0-4501-9379-1231dd51781



Points on @Horton. It can stagnate momentarily if the new county(s) actually takes off but bubble is out of question
because there is a big demand pressure and severe housing deficit.
Somalia impact is minimal I concur (circa 5%).
Again it would pay me to look forward to Kenya housing bubble as I am looking forward to buy an apartment in a few years time, but this will be a wild
dream, as it is good to face the reality. Nairobi is
the hub of East African tourism so foreigners and Kenyans abroad would always seek for a slice of Nairobi accomodation. I would not like to pay high rental income in future, it is better to buy on the long term. Other investors all over the world are likely to reason this way.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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wanyee
#88 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 12:29:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
My take: the biggest beneficiaries of an unstable larger Eastern Africa region have been the UN and relates agencies "expatriates..by view of their perks of being in a "hardship" zone. So what happens when the region stabilizes?..less perks may be? most of them have been the tenants of the insanely prized rates of 100k to 200k apartments Per Month. If this were to change i.e less demand for these insanely prized real estate pieces then the spiral effect downwards to less costly housing would be one of the catalyst for a bubble burst.
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itz
#89 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 4:07:13 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
Real estate just like any other asset class has cycles where it goes up,down or stagnates.In kenya many people talk about real estate only in the last 10 years and there is normally no reference to what happened 15 years prior.Nothing goes up forever and one day the music will stop.I would be cautious getting into real estate in kenya at today's prices only if you plan to be in it long term just incase ur caught up.I think you can get better prices in a few years.However i must say that with all the weakening of currencies by money printing over the years real estate is always a good hedge but for the long term.All am saying is that the easy money has been made in real estate in kenya,today you have to be surgical and strategic if you are just getting into the game.
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Siringi
#90 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 2:57:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/8/2013
Posts: 2,517
There is a new thread on same issue no?

Anyway Rink ===>World Bank and Interpol says sio pesa ya piracy its remittances from mayuu lakini si wariah pia manakaa mayuu ?
"πŸ˜–πŸ˜‘KQ makes money for everyone except the shareholder 😏😏 " overheard in Wazua
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