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Realities of Forex Investment
hisah
#1721 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 11:26:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
I'll be adding more short term yen shorts on CADJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY in US session.

CADJPY - 80.00
GBPJPY - 125.50 - 126.00
AUDJPY - 85.50 - 86.00

GBPJPY short @125.65, AUDJPY short 85.51 & USDJPY short @79.30. Lot size 0.2 for the 3 positions, too overbought... Targets open for now.

Will ignore EURUSD for now.

Trade update - NZDJPY short @66.30 got stopped out @67.00 which was the SL after yesterday's ugly gap ups in asia session - 243 pips loss on lot size 0.3. Only AUDJPY is in slight profit of all the short positions.

I still fancy a sizable reversal at this point and will add onto the short GBPJPY, new short @126.50 lot size 0.1 and renewing NZDJPY short @66.80 lot size 0.2. These are risky trades that require steel balls for now, but the technical setups point to profitable reversals of at least 150pips before bullish momentum continues. Also note that these are short term trades for playing the reversal coming soon, but the medium structure on yen crosses has now turned bullish. Once the correction is over I will update the long trades when taken and add them to the long term trades list which includes short AUDCHF, AUDCAD, NZDCHF and NZDCAD. Yep, I'm a kiwi bear as well as a yen bear and soon to add aussie bear.

Getting out of yesterday's yen longs i.e. NZDJPY, GBPJPY. Also getting out of AUDJPY - with measly pips made. Though most yen crosses are extremely overbought, October 2011 highs look like the bulls target that needs to be tested to create a short term reversal. For now I'll leave the GBPJPY short @125.60 and USDJPY short @79.30.

In the meantime gold is now well bid and looking to break $1763 resistance. If overcome, $1820 is the next stop.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#1722 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 3:41:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
EURAUD & EURJPY Still holding BULLISH
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
QW25091985
#1723 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 5:00:33 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
0 pips today ..lol...what is the market waiting for ?
Ceinz
#1724 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 6:05:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
QW25091985 wrote:
0 pips today ..lol...what is the market waiting for ?


Yes, euro/usd is playing hard to get, but check out the way gbp/usd has plunged na bado! aud/usd about to follow suit.d'oh!
“small step for man”
hisah
#1725 Posted : Thursday, February 23, 2012 12:12:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ceinz wrote:
QW25091985 wrote:
0 pips today ..lol...what is the market waiting for ?


Yes, euro/usd is playing hard to get, but check out the way gbp/usd has plunged na bado! aud/usd about to follow suit.d'oh!

When oil makes berserk bull moves, everything becomes so choppy making short term trading feel like a roller-coaster without seat-belts!

@fxtech - I think USDJPY blows off tomorrow before shorting the yen crosses correction starts in earnest. But oil is the spanner in the works here. Caution!

Gold breaks resistance @1763 and zooms to $1780. Time to look for longs aiming $2000 medium term.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
QW25091985
#1726 Posted : Thursday, February 23, 2012 6:59:29 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
hisah wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
QW25091985 wrote:
0 pips today ..lol...what is the market waiting for ?


Yes, euro/usd is playing hard to get, but check out the way gbp/usd has plunged na bado! aud/usd about to follow suit.d'oh!

When oil makes berserk bull moves, everything becomes so choppy making short term trading feel like a roller-coaster without seat-belts!

@fxtech - I think USDJPY blows off tomorrow before shorting the yen crosses correction starts in earnest. But oil is the spanner in the works here. Caution!

Gold breaks resistance @1763 and zooms to $1780. Time to look for longs aiming $2000 medium term.



but seriously what is the market waiting for ?i think we have consolidated enough...
usd/jpy on the daily charts is the best rally i have seen in a while , WOW
fxtech
#1727 Posted : Thursday, February 23, 2012 8:30:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
hisah wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
QW25091985 wrote:
0 pips today ..lol...what is the market waiting for ?


Yes, euro/usd is playing hard to get, but check out the way gbp/usd has plunged na bado! aud/usd about to follow suit.d'oh!

When oil makes berserk bull moves, everything becomes so choppy making short term trading feel like a roller-coaster without seat-belts!

@fxtech - I think USDJPY blows off tomorrow before shorting the yen crosses correction starts in earnest. But oil is the spanner in the works here. Caution!

Gold breaks resistance @1763 and zooms to $1780. Time to look for longs aiming $2000 medium term.



@Hisah, yah maybe thats what will play in USDJPY,

GOLD I have been Long for several weeks now, playing in bundles and bundles of pips, will hold it for some time tooo.

WATCHING, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, GBPUSD for possible LONGS
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
Ceinz
#1728 Posted : Thursday, February 23, 2012 12:15:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
EU, seems the market got amnesia, looks like we now headed to 1.35 (that ngap fongoten).
GU, also bullish for now, target 1.5780, but long term bearish. As a pointed out earlier EUR/GBP will be a pair to watch with the different fashions being adorned by these ugly sisters.
“small step for man”
hisah
#1729 Posted : Friday, February 24, 2012 7:06:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Trade update - closed all yen longs i.e. USDJPY @80 & GBPJPY @125.80 for a combined loss of $202 - the short term trades are not working as planned. That's $465 (including NZDJPY -243) loss in 4 days for standing infront of the bus. Really lucky GBPJPY (the beast) didnt rally big in the process.
@fxtech - I suggest closing ur GBPJPY since USDJPY is not going to correct. Rather consolidation is taking place to wind down (pause) the overbuying (oil did this in parabolic 2008 before the nosedive - dont stand infront of the train!). The CoTs report shows a major short squeeze on the yen crosses is just beginning - yen longs still piling infront of the bus in disbelief of the squeeze!? I expect USDJPY to test 83 soon. EURJPY has reached objective above 107 - OCT 2011 highs. GBPJPY should also zoom above 127. For now USDJPY, AUDJPY, CHFJPY & EURJPY (as long as EURUSD is above 1.3320) should go parabolic before topping out. We all know how it is when parabolic moves top out... So if going short yen, keep your stops accordingly while riding the parabolic. As well as keep an eye on oil which also is likely to go parabolic! Gold/silver are just catching up, looking to add more long positions esp on silver.

I'm still amazed at how the US markets & commodities esp oil are sooo stretched i.e. overbought for long periods and defying gravity (correction). Global GDP is in slowdown, but market are doing the opposite esp oil! When reality checks in, the selloff will not be funny.

This also says something abt the yen losses.

http://www.treasury.gov/...leases/Pages/tg1430.aspx
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#1730 Posted : Friday, February 24, 2012 10:58:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
fxtech wrote:
EURAUD & EURJPY Still holding BULLISH



EURAUD & EURJPY TP hit (703pips) beautiful trades right there.

GOLD Doing great bt keeping keen eye on it.

WATCH LIST:
EURUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, GPBUSD, NZDUSD FOR potential Longs
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#1731 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 10:44:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Getting ready back here in asia for another madness week. EURUSD has already exploded past 1.33 to open up 1.35 - 1.36. USDJPY has gone parabolic to test 80 and now on course to test 83 and in the process pulling up all yen crosses. Yen longs got damaged as they got ran over by a train. The short squeeze continues... Oil and commodities having rallied more than 10% for 6 weeks and look more explosive than fx and I expect them to keep rallying as the CBs keep flooding money in fear of a Greek debt fallout.

The volatility will be wild for some weeks and sticking to the trading rules and plans is highly advised if one's account is to survive the choppiness that Mr Market is about to unleash. Small accounts ($3000 and below) will be easily put on margin calls! Caution.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1732 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 5:57:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The £ will be a shorting magnet from Q2 esp May-June...

http://tgr.ph/xLYNPI
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#1733 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 8:01:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
A new week with interesting movements already,

IDEA:

Watch EURJPY, AUDJPY & GBPJPY to move lower as the week starts, but will be watching for buy signals esp on EURJPY & AUDJPY,

CURRENT prices on above pairs good for aggressive shorts but not very advisable.

GOLD, still holds BULLISH, will be looking to add on H4 setups.

EURAUD & EURCAD BULLISH will be looking for high probability setups on D1 & H4 to get LONG
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#1734 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 4:45:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Nikkei, yen crosses and oil look poised to test 50 and 61.8% fibo retracement levels before the next leg up. That means at least a week of selloff is on the cards to wind down the overbought readings. Also the weekly bollinger bands is offering tough resistance for now.
As @fxtech says, be careful shorting yen crosses, the bulls are in charge going forward.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#1735 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 5:19:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
fxtech wrote:
A new week with interesting movements already,

IDEA:

Watch EURJPY, AUDJPY & GBPJPY to move lower as the week starts, but will be watching for buy signals esp on EURJPY & AUDJPY,

CURRENT prices on above pairs good for aggressive shorts but not very advisable.

GOLD, still holds BULLISH, will be looking to add on H4 setups.

EURAUD & EURCAD BULLISH will be looking for high probability setups on D1 & H4 to get LONG



As expected EURJPY, AUDJPY & GBPJPY Shorts in play, we expect further fall either way.
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
QW25091985
#1736 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 9:33:40 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
euro longs currently bringing problems .lol
yen pairs need to correct . am seeing usd/jpy closing today with a nice bearish engulfing on the daily chart
fxtech
#1737 Posted : Tuesday, February 28, 2012 7:42:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
AUDUSD & NZDUSD high probability to trade BULLISH in the coming sessions, though it looks like a tougher call thanks to very strong resistances on both pairs,but we will be looking for H4 setups to get LONG.
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
QW25091985
#1738 Posted : Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:22:27 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
yep bullish on euro too .
even after s&p sayin greece is in default...
hisah
#1739 Posted : Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:31:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
QW25091985 wrote:
yep bullish on euro too .
even after s&p sayin greece is in default...

Selective default. If they were to declare outright default you'd be waking up to very interesting sellside action in asia. If those spartan CDS contracts get triggered, the market stampede for exit doors wont be funny.
With 1 & 2 yr greece bonds on a parabolic since Aug 2011 and all the efforts to stem it by money masters not working, I wonder what more signs Mr Market needs to avoid a cliff dive...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
dave.kim
#1740 Posted : Tuesday, February 28, 2012 11:31:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
GBPJPY:Double bottom on weekly chart and descending triangle on monthly chart have been broken. Looking to buy on correction dips.
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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