GBP/USD Weekly OutlookGBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.5976 last week but recovered ahead of 1.5962 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.5343 to 1.6343 at 1.5961). Break of 1.6076 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is formed and turned intraday bias neutral.
On the upside, note that break of 1.6343 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we'll stay neutral and expect more consolidations. On the downside, break of 1.5962 cluster support will confirm that whole rise form 1.5343 is finished and deeper decline should be seen to trend line support (now at 1.5715). Also, note that sustained trading below the mentioned trend line will indicate that whole rally from 1.4230 is completed and should bring deeper decline through 1.5343 support.In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135267/EUR/USD Weekly Outlook EUR/USD rebounded after dipping to 1.3751 last week. The break of near term trend line support was brief and EUR/USD is back trading above this support, thus retaining bullish outlook.
Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test on 1.4035 resistance first. Break of 1.4035 will confirm rally resumption for 1.4281 key resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.3751 support will now confirm that EUR/USD has at least made a short term top and should turn outlook bearish for 1.3427 support and below. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135269/AUD/USD Weekly OutlookAUD/USD managed to hold on to 55 days EMA again last week despite a brief break and thus, retained the mildly bullish outlook. As noted before, even though upside momentum is clearly seen diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet.
Above 1.0200 resistance will bring up trend resumption to another high above 1.0254. However, break of 0.9943 support will favor the case that AUD/USD has topped out and will bring deeper fall through 0.9803 support.In the bigger picture, note that bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD. Reversal should be imminent even if 1.0254 is not yet the major top. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside break of 0.9803 support will now be an early signal of medium term reversal and will turn focus to 0.9536 support for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135265/USD/JPY Weekly Outlook USD/JPY reversed and fell sharply after edging higher to 83.28.
Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 81.57 support first. Break will target 80.93 support next. Note that break of 80.93 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption. On the upside, above 82.38 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and indicate that sideway consolidation from 80.29 is still in progress. In any case, we'd expect upside to be limited by 83.96 resistance as the consolidation continues.In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 85.92 cluster resistance will indicate that a medium term bottom is at least formed and stronger rebound should be seen through 90 psychological level.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135268/USD/CHF Weekly Outlook USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.9201 continued last week.
Initial bias remains neutral and more sideway trading might be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9774 to 0.9201 at 0.9420 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9201 will confirm fall resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target.In the bigger picture, long term decline from 2010 high of 1.1729 is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135266/EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook EUR/CHF dipped to as low as 1.2826 last week but lacked follow through selling and recovered again. Near term outlook remains mixed and we'll turn neutral again.
On the downside, break of 1.2704 support will reaffirm the case that corrective rise from 1.2401 has completed at 1.3203 already and will bring deeper fall to 1.2401 and below. On the upside above 1.3038 will in turn suggest that fall from 1.3203 was a correction and would bring stronger rally through 1.3203 high eventually.In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135263/GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook GBP/JPY's consolidation from 135.48 extended further last week and dipped to as low as 130.85.
Initial bias remains on the downside for further decline. But we'd still expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 125.48 to 135.48 at 129.30 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 132.52 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 135.48. However, sustained break of 129.30 fibonacci level will dampen this view and turn focus back to 125.48 low instead.In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend from 251.09, with first leg finished at 163.05. Choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as the second leg and should be finished at 125.48 already. The third leg of consolidations should have started at 125.48 and should now target 163.05 and above. Though cluster resistance at 38.2% retracement of 251.09 to 118.81 at 169.34 and 100% projection of 118.81 to 163.05 from 125.48 at 169.72 should limit upside and bring reversal. However, considering that GBP/JPY is facing strong resistance from 55 week EMA, deeper decline and sustained trading below 130 psychological level will dampen this view and indicate that choppy fall from 163.05 is still in progress for another low below 125.48 before completion.
http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135260/“small step for man”